I don't have an in-depth understanding of Odds

I've been lurking here for awhile...

Anyway, I guess I don't have a great mind for math so I tend to play based on general concepts. I have a difficult time figuring pot odds and knowing whether I should call certain bets post flop if I am chasing a draw of some sort.
I tend to play more based on generalities, such as, there are four people in the pot and I am on a flush draw, the betting is relatively low, I will chase. Or, there is only one other guy and he made a big raise, I'll lay it down with only 1 card to come and 4 outs. However, again, I dont necessarily do the math and could be missing opportunities and making mistakes.

But I dont (or cant) seem to accurately figure out the pot odds and so forth.

How big of a problem is not knowing odds and probabilities for a poker player?

How important is knowing anatomy for a surgeon?

[jba]

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I don't have an in-depth understanding of Poker

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FYP. you need to figure this out. it is the root of everything.

edit: the thing about poker is that you need to beat your opponents more than the rake beats you. As long as your opponents are really bad, it is possible to win without understanding pot odds if your "feel" is better than theirs (by enough to overcome the rake). Against good opponents, however, expect to lose.

Yeah this is what I figured. It sucks to hear what you already know but were hoping to avoid.
One thing though (last attempt at dodging the inevitable) is that Sklansky even says in "Getting the Best of It", and I quote: "Its sad but true that most of the world class poker players are not thoroughly knowledgable regarding poker odds (though their intuitive estimates come pretty close anyway). Conversely, many lesser players know the odds exactly. They can still be weaker than the intuitive players because knowing the right odds is not that important!...First, it rarely happens that the odds the pot offers are near the break even point...he is only likely to make a mistake those rare times when he is faced with a close decision...moreover, making the correct decision is no big deal when its close."

Now, I am staking my hopes on this. And its the reason I play less limit hold em and more NL where I can try to make the big decisions count more and hopefully offset my marginal decisions/mistakes...

-g

[Buz]

Here's some easy help for you: go buy Bill Burton's book "Getting the Edge in Low Limit Texas Hold'em". His chapter on pot odds is very good if you don't want to do math and he includes a simple odds chart that shows for x outs you need xx in the pot in order to call. Just knowing the important ones, like 4 outs (inside straight) 9 outs (Flush), etc. can help you make a lot of those decisions.

Over the long term, everybody gets the same cards, so making the right decisions is key to being a winning player. Interestingly, if the decisions are really close - then they don't really matter, you'll break even. So, your math doesn't need to be real precise.

[Buz]

My father was an excellent card player. About 35 years ago his advice to me was "Win big, lose small."
It sounds really simple, but if you really think about it, he was saying, "Push small edges when you have the best of it. Make your opponents pay the maximum to chase you. Only bet a longshot if the payoff is there." Yes, he played by feel, but his "feel" was really his estimate of how much he thought he could extract if he made his hand (implied odds). I think that's more important than being able to crunch the numbers.

[Zetack]

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I've been lurking here for awhile...

Anyway, I guess I don't have a great mind for math so I tend to play based on general concepts. I have a difficult time figuring pot odds and knowing whether I should call certain bets post flop if I am chasing a draw of some sort.
I tend to play more based on generalities, such as, there are four people in the pot and I am on a flush draw, the betting is relatively low, I will chase. Or, there is only one other guy and he made a big raise, I'll lay it down with only 1 card to come and 4 outs. However, again, I dont necessarily do the math and could be missing opportunities and making mistakes.

But I dont (or cant) seem to accurately figure out the pot odds and so forth.

How big of a problem is not knowing odds and probabilities for a poker player?

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Geez, I suck at math, I tend screw up addition with a calculator. And the math still isn't a bear for Poker.

Just memorize the most common situations. You need to know 4 outs (gutshot straight draw), 5 outs (Low pair, drawing to two pair or trips), 8 outs (open ended straight draw or double gutter straight draw) and nine outs (flush draw).

You could also learn 12 outs (flush draw with a gutshot draw as well) or 15 outs (flush draw and open ended straight draw) but in limit you'll rarely be folding those so its not that critical. Plus 8 anbd 9 are close enough you could just go with one or the other.

Anything under four outs you need a really massive pot odds to call.

So bascially just learn 3 pot odds and that'll do. Its helpful to know some more, but just add them in later as you find yourself running into some other ones fairly frequently.

Not being willing to learn 3 pot odds is just plain lazy.

[dogmeat]

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My father was an excellent card player. About 35 years ago his advice to me was "Win big, lose small."
It sounds really simple, but if you really think about it, he was saying, "Push small edges when you have the best of it. Make your opponents pay the maximum to chase you. Only bet a longshot if the payoff is there." Yes, he played by feel, but his "feel" was really his estimate of how much he thought he could extract if he made his hand (implied odds). I think that's more important than being able to crunch the numbers.

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Your father's advice, as translated by you, is actually a contradition.

You can't "win big" and "lose small" while pressing your small edges to the max. It just does not work that way.

As an example, lets say there are 10 red cards face down on the table and 11 black cards face down on the table. If you bet somebody even money and took the black cards as winners, and they won only on red cards, you would have a small edge - but if you are betting this type of hand to the max, you will find yourself with plenty of losing sessions. And, they may be big losing sessions.

Understand, I'm not saying it's a bad bet - and strong players press with small edges, I'm saying your variance per session is very large - and you won't be "winning big" and "losing small" very often. Likewise with the "only bet a longshot when the odds are there." Sure, it's good advice, but longshots are just that, longshots, and they don't come up very often.

Now from a long-term standpoint, it's good advice, and you'll win eventually.

Sorry to be picky, but that's the way I see it.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Thanks for the replies. The last one about boiling it down to the most common odds situations such as open ended straight and flush draws is good. I've actually spent some time trying to learn these concepts and memorizing odds charts but end up slightly confused...I usually just compare everything to a flush draw. Okay, so 9 outs is approx 4-1 and so if I have 8 outs or 10 outs I just sort of extrapolate. But that seems pretty lazy too.

-g