Bet this river for value?

einbert · #1 02-10-2005, 03:33 PM

Against 90% of players I bet this river automatically (and 3-bet preflop, which I probably should have done anyway). Problem is, the PFR has a PFR of 3 after
150 hands. PFR of 3 is pretty much QQ-AA and AK right? I didn't feel like a semibluff would work unless he had exactly AK with no hearts, so I was drawing to my nut flush and (very tainted) overcards. Do I bet the river or check/call?
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, Hero calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

MHarris · #2 02-10-2005, 03:45 PM

I 3-bet this preflop, even if PFR's PFR is 3, and I'm leading at this flop. 150 hands, while it's enough to classify someone as a selective raiser, isn't enough to deem them a rock.

I'd bet this river.

sean c · #3 02-10-2005, 03:49 PM

Why not C/R?

einbert · #4 02-10-2005, 04:10 PM

What is a tight player going to bet and call a raise with that I beat with this board?

sean c · #5 02-10-2005, 04:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What is a tight player going to bet and call a raise with that I beat with this board?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think CO is that tight check call. But no way I fold. If he was in early position maybe but from the CO spot I think you could widen his hand range. 1010 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], JJ [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or AQs.

Fat Nicky · #6 02-10-2005, 05:04 PM

3-bet pre-flop, you get valuable information if he caps.

Since you didn't do that, you need to lead this flop...or check/raise as some people have suggested.

If you do either of these things, the river is easier to play.

sean c · #7 02-10-2005, 05:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
3-bet pre-flop, you get valuable information if he caps.

Since you didn't do that, you need to lead this flop...or check/raise as some people have suggested.

If you do either of these things, the river is easier to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree

einbert · #8 02-10-2005, 05:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3-bet pre-flop, you get valuable information if he caps.

Since you didn't do that, you need to lead this flop...or check/raise as some people have suggested.

If you do either of these things, the river is easier to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. Definitely three-betting PF next time. I didn't think about seeing whether or not he would cap. That definitely makes it a +EV move.

applej25 · #9 02-10-2005, 05:26 PM

i say just let him bet the river for you and call it down.