Reality check: Standard WA/WB?

[JerseyTom]

Feel like I've been spewing the last couple of days by playing good-but-not-great hands a bit too strongly vs. decent players.

Villain is a pretty solid TAG (17/9/1.45 over 145 hands). Has only shown down very good starting hands outside of the blinds. Hasn't done anything remarkable one way or the other so far in this session (60-70 hands).

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: JerseyTom is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">JerseyTom raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, JerseyTom calls.

Flop: (7 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, JerseyTom calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, JerseyTom calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, JerseyTom checks.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

Is anything I beat calling the river? Is he really checking anything that beats me?
Anyone like a turn raise to force the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to pay for its draw?


Thanks,

Tom

[sean c]

I would have bet the river he might make a crying call here with AK and if he folds so what worth a shot and yeah I don't see him checking anything your behind. The turn is fine exactly AK is the only hand he 3-bets from the small blind that your ahead of maybe AJs. If I did raise the turn it would be for a free showdown and with such a scary board I don't know that your getting 3-bet here very often but it would suck if you did. I like the way you played it but I'm firing one on the river.

[toss]

I don't see villain making a crying call with AK here. If he has a better hand he probably decided to check/call the river. If he has a worse hand he's probably going to check/fold the river. The only value in a river bet I see is forcing out AQ, but I don't think thats enough.

[lufbradolly]

Raise the flop.

[thesharpie]

Raise the turn.

You played your hand fine on every street. There is absolutely no reason to bet this river against this opponent in my opinion.

[lufbradolly]

I just ran a sim on pokerstove.

I put SB on this range: {99 - AA, AKs,AQs, AKo}. The equities on the flop were almost 50:50 so now i'm confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

You've hit TPTK so i think it's a raise because it makes the hand easier to play.

But it looks pretty close.

It'd be nice to hear a good players thoughts on this.

[JerseyTom]

[ QUOTE ]
I just ran a sim on pokerstove.

I put SB on this range: {99 - AA, AKs,AQs, AKo}. The equities on the flop were almost 50:50 so now i'm confused. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

You've hit TPTK so i think it's a raise because it makes the hand easier to play.

But it looks pretty close.

It'd be nice to hear a good players thoughts on this.

[/ QUOTE ]

I added AJs to his range (99+,AJs+,AKo) and I have a 51.6% edge of the flop.

On the turn, however, this edge plummets to 30.0%, so I'm not sure I understand the thinking of those who advocate a turn raise (anyone care to elaborate). I certainly did consider it in case he was semi-bluffing a high [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

There was a good post a week or so back (here in SS, I think) where the discussion was about narrowing the range of a player like this once he leads the turn (his flop bet will be pretty much automatic). I think this guy leads the turn with few worse hands that mine - AK with no club is check-folding, AJo with no club might bet-fold. A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Kx and A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Jx are often bet-calling, sometimes check-calling (these would be my best cases).

Everything else in his range either owns me on the turn (and probably 3-bets, in which case I really need to consider a fold) or is just calling down (e.g. AA, KK no [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]).

I was planning to bet the turn if checked to, but even so I think I'd have to consider folding the turn to a C/R...

Anyone else agree with this analysis?


Tom

[W. Deranged]

I think that you played this correctly. There is no reason to raise at any point here. I originally thought you should bet the river but a player with those kinds of stats is pretty much a tight-weak ABC type who, from my experience, would check the river with overpairs and maybe even a set here fearing that you have a straight or something. To have only a 1.4 agg. factor when playing that small a number of hands, you have to be missing a fair number of value bets, which your opponent is probably doing. Make them pay for their mistake by NOT betting this river.

I don't bet the river. He could easily have a hand that beats you, but is scared of the board, and he is unlikely to call you with a worse hand.