Big vs. short stack 2+2'er 3 handed

[adanthar]

The tiny stack here started out loose/passive, then moved to weak/tight as the bubble came. She's terrible.
The other two are both 2+2'ers, know the other is, too, and have been playing ABC poker the whole tourney.

Hand 1:
Blinds(250/500) - Thursday, November 18, 23:48:59 EDT 2004
Table Table 11094 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 1: Short 2+2 ( $1960 )
Seat 5: SS ( $580 )
Seat 3: Big 2+2 ( $7460 )
Trny:7285528 Level:8
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Big 2+2 [ x y ]
Short 2+2 folds.
Big 2+2 folds.
SS does not show cards.
SS wins 750 chips

The next hand:
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 1: Short 2+2 ( $1960 )
Seat 5: SS ( $830 )
Seat 3: Big 2+2 ( $7210 )
Trny:7285528 Level:8
Blinds(250/500)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Big 2+2 [ 5d 3h ]
Big 2+2 is all-In.
SS folds.
Short 2+2: probably not smart to call here
Short 2+2: i have AK
Short 2+2 is all-In.

1)Are there two cards you don't fold in Hand 1? (Results in white: <font color="white"> Big stack had 65s. Does it make any difference if he has aces?</font>)
2)How is the all in/call?

[Jason Strasser]

Nice hands.

The first one is debatable. This does not seem like an extreme case to me unless the short 2+2 was playing too tight. The Short 2+2er should not be afraid to call with a hand like AK, or even AT or 77 in a spot like this. The range of hands for big 2+2er is just about any 2 cards when up against short 2+2er. A double up will get short 2+2er almost tied HU, with a chance to win.

I like to make these extreme moves (folding hands to the short stack) on the bubble, where if a person calls and loses, they get no money. I feel like extreme plays are much better off there. Mathematically speaking, I don't think its so wrong to put the SS all in with any 2 cards. Plus, you let him increase his stack by nearly 50%, and he could come back with a double up or two. You are getting roughly 1:3 on your money, which is good enough for me. I would've put SS all in with 65s, and obviously called with AK as the short 2+2er in a heartbeat.

OTOH, if the short 2+2 would actually be folding a hand like AQ or JJ here, I think maybe you could make a good argument for preserving the SS. I personally dont think that is very realistic though, and I also think its a big mistake for the Short 2+2 who may be forgetting that the reason you have a good ROI is that you finish first 14-20% of the time.

-Jason

[rachelwxm]

First hand depends mostly on your expectation of stealing EV once you fold and without that consideration you are getting pretty good odds to call most of hands.

Second one it's a very questionable call by AK, he need to getting something like 4.2:1 in order to call according to ICM. Something like over pair over your rags, etc.

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]

Second one it's a very questionable call by AK, he need to getting something like 4.2:1 in order to call according to ICM. Something like over pair over your rags, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm fairly sure your math is way off here. I have AK only needing to win 55.5% to make it profitable. And assuming he's against a random hand, that makes it a pretty easy call.

[jrm]

Pots odds don't matter at all since calling puts the short stacked 2+2'er all in. All that matters is the EV of calling vs folding.
Here's the caclulation:

AK wins vs a Random hand 65.45% of the time.
If short stack 2+2'er folds, the stacks will look this:
Short 2+2'er 1460
SS 580
Big 2+2'er 7960
ICM says this gives Short 2+2'er 30.17% of the payout.

If short stack 2+2'er calls and wins, the stacks will be:
Short 2+2'er 4170
SS 580
Big 2+2'er 5250
This gives Short 2+2'er 37.38% of the payout.

If Short 2+2'er calls and loses, he gets 20% of the payout.

So, Short 2+2er's calling EV = 0.6545*0.3738+0.3455*0.2 = 0.314

31.4% &gt; 30.17%
So ICM says it's a slightly better play to call here.

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
Pots odds don't matter at all since calling puts the short stacked 2+2'er all in. All that matters is the EV of calling vs folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

I realize this isn't a pot odds question and I never mentioned pot odds in my post. I did the same thing you did, only I solved for what win % is needed to call. So basically, I'm saying I agree. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[rachelwxm]

You guys are right, I did not take into account he is already in the money. Good point. That might excuse me from doing any more ICM calculation in the future. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jrm]

Whoops, didn't read your post closely enough. Sorry

[rachelwxm]

No, I said u did a good job explaining this. I was just getting too lazy. Good analysis. That's all. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]