Find a Fold?

#1 08-31-2005, 11:32 PM

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, MP2 calls, CO folds, BB calls.

Turn: (7.16 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP2 raises, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (13.16 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 16.16 BB

gh9801 · #2 09-01-2005, 12:23 AM

I don't find one, did KJ/AJ get there?

sy_or_bust · #3 09-01-2005, 12:34 AM

You can fold the river and feel pretty good about it, until the one time MP2 shows KcQc and BB a worse ace. Whether or not to fold the river depends completely on MP2 - if he will never raise a draw, you are never ahead to the big turn raise.

Harv72b · #4 09-01-2005, 12:40 AM

Did you have a read on BB that led you to just call his turn donkbet? Especially with a third player in the hand, I'm raising that all day, every day. If you are then 3-bet by BB or MP2, then you can probably find a river fold unimproved.

Seriously, though...think about what BB might have:

QT: very unlikely given his flop lead.
AA/KK: very unlikely given his preflop call.
JJ: pretty unlikely given the preflop call & flop lead.
AK: unlikely given his bet/call on the flop & preflop call.
AJ: fairly likely to use this line. If you can get this HU, you have 9 outs to beat AJ on the river.
KJ: somewhat likely to play it this way. You have 11 outs to beat KJ.
66: might take this line given the board. You have 4 outs to beat 66.
A6: somewhat unlikely. Again, 9 outs to beat A6 on the river.

Factor in all the times he's betting into you with a weaker ace, an underpair, or some bizarre bluff, and I think this makes for a clear turn raise.

#5 09-01-2005, 12:56 AM

"AJ: fairly likely to use this line. If you can get this HU, you have 9 outs to beat AJ on the river."

Wouldn't I have 10 outs?

3 - K's - Q kicker
4 - 10's - straight
3 - Q's - Higher 2 pair

Brunger · #6 09-01-2005, 01:21 AM

I think that you should raise the turn as you are very unlikely to get 3-bet by anything less than a set and you could check the river if you really fear two pair. Costs the same as calling twice anyway. I don't mind folding the river on this one we are good here very very rarely without known aggros.

SavageMiser · #7 09-01-2005, 07:25 AM

Reads? Has MP2 been cold-calling QT? I'm not folding here.