Set and straight

BZ_Zorro · #1 06-07-2005, 11:42 AM

Villain is horrible, 60/2 after 50 hands, but aggressive post flop with or without a hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

SB ($89)
BB ($164.17)
UTG ($104.05)
UTG+1 ($193.45)
MP1 ($71.35)
MP2 ($133.1)
MP3 ($137.35)
CO ($101.93)
Hero ($114.85)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
3 folds, MP2 calls $1, 2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $2.

Flop: ($7.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets $7, Hero raises to $14, MP2 calls $7.

Turn: ($35.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets $35, Hero...

Yeah I know the flop min raise is horrible, but tell me again.

Anyone call this turn?

meow_meow · #2 06-07-2005, 11:49 AM

Assuming he has one of your outs, you are going to fill up slightly more than 1 time in 5. Even if you can guarantee that he'll call for the rest of your stack, you don't have odds to call the turn.
This obviously assumes that he really has the straight.

swolfe · #3 06-07-2005, 11:57 AM

terrible time to minraise the flop.

(not that there's ever a good time)

BZ_Zorro · #4 06-07-2005, 12:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This obviously assumes that he really has the straight.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering if he really does. Is this a straightforward strength = nuts here?

meow_meow · #5 06-07-2005, 12:04 PM

I guess not always, this morning at 100nl 6max the board gave me a A-high straight with my J on the river (TQKA board), opponent bet out the pot ($20) from bb, I pushed from the button and was surprised when he folded.

I guess some people will occassionally bluff at boards like this.

Ghazban · #6 06-07-2005, 12:06 PM

I don't necessarily believe he has the straight. I think two pair (or worse) is likely. What's your read? Is he a chronic slowplayer? Is he the type to bet out with the nuts on the turn or more likely to checkraise (your raise on the flop might lead him to believe you'll bet the turn)?

crazygeorge · #7 06-07-2005, 12:38 PM

In this situation i would not put him on a jack, i expereinced a similar situation on full tilt. In this case he could be holding ak or aq and could be pullign a semi bluff, this is a really intersting hand.

meow_meow · #8 06-07-2005, 01:08 PM

It probably doesn't mean much, but if I'm villain here, OOP with a jack, this is exactly the bet I'm making.

salloch · #9 06-07-2005, 01:18 PM

Neat hand.

You could be up against AK, AQ, AT, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, KQ taking KQ out of the mix that's 66 hands.

Or you could be up against AJ, JJ, KJ, QJ, JT, J9, or J8 taking J8 out of the mix leaves 86 hands.

If you assume there's a 10% chance he's bluffing, that makes you a 1.2 - 1 dog just on the above analysis.

The pot is offering you 2 - 1, so this argues for a call, (or a push?)

But you might have 13 outs as well, 3 J, 1 A, 3 K, 3 Q, 3 T. That will halve the pot, or give you the nuts (or very close to it).

I'm not sure if a call or a push is correct here, but can it really be correct to fold?

BTW, when I read the post, my first thought was "fold, he has a jack". And that's probably what I would have done.

Is this take correct, or am I making a *huge* mistake thinking he might have KK, QQ, etc...

Thanks for and interesting AA post!

-salloch

TheWorstPlayer · #10 06-07-2005, 01:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone call this turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
Does anyone not call this turn?