party 15/30 river line

[MrMonkey]

Any opinions on how I should play this river?

15/30 party poker, semi-loose, semi-aggressive table
UTG+2 is a little loose and pretty aggressive, not much on other players in hand.

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Hero calls, UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, BB calls, Hero calls

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

OOPS! UTG+2 is pretty aggressive, I thought a flop cr sucking everybody in would work. Knowing 15/30 on party I was shocked nobody bet.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 bets, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, BB folds, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

D'oh! I'm especially scared of hearts since there was no flop bet. Not sure what to do here, possibly can get several calls by betting but there is a good chance I let somebody pick up a flush draw on the turn in a 6-way pot.
Check or bet? If I bet and get raised I assume I have to call?

[smurfitup]

checking the river is incredbily weak... i bet the river, and if raised, i 3-bet it.. YOU HAVE A SET! if the backdoor flush got there, good for him... you have a big hand, and there's no shame in putting in a third bet in that spot.. if you lost to some nasty runner-runner, so be it.

[ QUOTE ]
i bet the river, and if raised, i 3-bet it..

[/ QUOTE ]

3 betting this river is awful, the only possible raising hand that you beat is AQ, and UTG+2 is only likely candidate to have it. He's not going to raise the flush river with 2 other turn callers behind him. They're not going to raise without a flush. I bet out and if raised either fold or make the crying call.

[Leaky Eye]

Bet and call raises.

[Equal]

Yeah I hear you. I just don't see how out of three opponents, two of whom called the turn bet and raise, no one can have the flush. I like just check-calling the river. If you bet and get raised you have basically trapped yourself into a crying call because no one showed any strength on earlier streets -- someone could think his two-pair is good enough to raise for example.

[Jozepha]

The flop check is standard. And I bet the river.

[MarkSummers]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop check is standard. And I bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? There are all low cards on the flop. Even though there are many players in, the aggressive player may check AK or AQ against 6 players. The others just called so a bet from any of them is unlikely as well.

If UTG+2 bets and you get some callers, you get a nice check-raise in. However, it seems too risky to me. If there were only 3 or 4 players to the flop, a bet with anything AK or AQ would seem standard for the aggressive player and then check-raising would be good. with this many players, even an aggressive player is going to realize they cant win this pot on a bet with overcards.

If the preflop raiser has AK or AQ or something else that's not a high pair, he may not bet. If he has a high pair, AA-TT, he is going to raise your bet.

The pot is big. Bet.

[MrMonkey]

I think that most people familiar with the 15/30 game on party would agree with me that even if utg+2 doesn't bet, I can expect this flop to bet at least 90% of the time.

Also, I understand why betting the river make sense, but I don't see how some of you can say that a backdoor flush is unlikely. With no flop bet in we have 6 players who saw the turn for just the 2-bets preflop and 3 of them (other than me) who were willing to put in 2-bets on the turn. It looks to me like I'm gonna be up against a flush a pretty reasonable % of the time here.

[MarkSummers]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that most people familiar with the 15/30 game on party would agree with me that even if utg+2 doesn't bet, I can expect this flop to bet at least 90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if you bet this flop, it gets bet 100% of the time. I would say 90% is way too high for a 6 handed flop. Remember there was a raise and 4 cold callers, just because the 4 cold callers are in the pot doesn't mean they will bet if the pre flop raiser doesn't bet. Again, even some of the most aggressive players won't bet AK or AQ against 5 others. agressive does not necessarily mean foolish. This flop is bet 60% of the time at best if you check it.

Even if you were 100% sure you could get a checkraise in, a bet may lead to a raise and a 3 bet. A checkraise also defines your hand to other players as a set or 2 pair (most likely a set given the board) better than an unassuming bet from early position does. If the preflop raiser has an overpair and bets it, you checkraise, he may not 3 bet. But if you bet into his overpair, he will definitely raise and you can 3 bet.

It seems to me you must bet this flop for value. It doesn't even appear to be close.

[Michael Emery]

Sucks that your flop check-raise didnt pan-out. I think I like just betting out on the turn here hoping to get raised so I can 3-bet. On the river you've gotta bet and pay off any raise that comes back to you, need be.

Mike Emery