Common ring game variance

[Percussion]

lets say a normal winning player (or even a professional) had a bad run of cards.

How long can this last?

3,000 hands?
5,000 hands?
10,000 hands?
G A S P 20,000 hands?!

[Acehawk74]

according to what I've read, bad runs can last upwards of 10-20k hands. I'm not that experienced, but from other posts on the forums, I have seen plenty of people say they have run breakeven or losses for 10k+ hands.

[Niediam]

It depends what game you are playing and what form (no limit, limit, etc) it is but 20k+ hand losing streaks are far from uncommon.

[benkahuna]

You should read Gambling Theory and Other Topics by Mason Malmuth. It covers this exact topic. For a full time player in a limit game, one can take 2 years of near ideal play to be even. That's the worst it can possibly get from a mathematical perspective. That's in a B&M. One the net multitabling, it could be a much shorter time duration.

[fisherman112]

this also depends greatly on your winrate at the given game, your playing style (more hands=greater variance)and your idea of having a bad run of cards.

obviously a 20k stretch where a 1.5bb/100 earning 30/60 LHE player earns only .2bb/100 could be considered running bad too.

[Python49]

i just finished a 10k hand run of break even poker with many ups and downs.... i popped my cherry.

[BigDonkey]

over my last 10k hands, im down 200+ BB. this is my first downswing over 100BB, and boy it's a doozy. Hopefully it comes back soon. I'm not sure i could make it to 20k. ouch! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Jorge10]

[ QUOTE ]
this also depends greatly on your winrate at the given game, your playing style (more hands=greater variance)and your idea of having a bad run of cards.

obviously a 20k stretch where a 1.5bb/100 earning 30/60 LHE player earns only .2bb/100 could be considered running bad too.

[/ QUOTE ]


20k hands is too much, I was on a downswing for 2 weeks, but that was 10k hands, if you are on a 20k hand downsing you need to move down, I mean its not a downswing anymore, 10k in my opinion is a huge amount of hands. Its weeks in real life, people seem to lose perspective at times. 10k hands is about 2 weeks in real life and thats assuming you play 8 hours a day 5 days a week, thats not exactly a short amount of time you know.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this also depends greatly on your winrate at the given game, your playing style (more hands=greater variance)and your idea of having a bad run of cards.

obviously a 20k stretch where a 1.5bb/100 earning 30/60 LHE player earns only .2bb/100 could be considered running bad too.

[/ QUOTE ]


20k hands is too much, I was on a downswing for 2 weeks, but that was 10k hands, if you are on a 20k hand downsing you need to move down, I mean its not a downswing anymore, 10k in my opinion is a huge amount of hands. Its weeks in real life, people seem to lose perspective at times. 10k hands is about 2 weeks in real life and thats assuming you play 8 hours a day 5 days a week, thats not exactly a short amount of time you know.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. 20k hands is not even close to unreasonable for a downswing. It can last much longer.

[subzero]

Even professionals can have a year long downswing.