Any 2-suited in SB hits a flush - now what?

maryfield48 · #1 11-10-2004, 03:25 AM

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 (LP-A) calls, 2 folds, Button (LA-P) calls, Hero completes, BB raises, MP2 (LP-A) calls, Button (LA-P) calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, LP-A calls, LA-P 3-bets, Hero calls, BB calls, LP-A calls.

Turn: (10 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, LP-A bets, LA-P calls, Hero raises, BB folds, LP-A 3-bets, LA-P calls, Hero calls.

River: (19 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, LP-A bets, LA-P raises, Hero calls, LP-A 3-bets, LA-P calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 28 BB

mmbt0ne · #2 11-10-2004, 03:31 AM

You have to cap the turn and the river. A LA-P isn't 3-betting a flush draw on the flop. BB raised preflop, so the only possible hand I put him on that beats you is KQs, and you might see that once every blue moon. Once he folds you are good to go.
You're gonna be good in this situation at least 90% of the time I think, and need to pump that flush for every cent you can. If the board pairs on the river I might be a little wary of a full house, but until then, get your money!

Greg J · #3 11-10-2004, 03:34 AM

Go nuts. Cap every street -- including the flop!

mmbt0ne · #4 11-10-2004, 03:47 AM

Yeah, I completely whiffed on that one. Any time you have a four-flush and at least 2 callers, go crazy. Cap that flop.

maryfield48 · #5 11-10-2004, 09:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I completely whiffed on that one. Any time you have a four-flush and at least 2 callers, go crazy. Cap that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Under normal circumstances, I don't worry too much about flush over flush. But in this case do I pay no heed to the LP-A in MP2 who after calling PF & flop bets & 3-bets the turn & river?

jrz1972 · #6 11-10-2004, 09:46 AM

Cap the flop. Cap the turn. Cap the river.

easypete · #7 11-10-2004, 10:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You're gonna be good in this situation at least 90% of the time I think

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assume that the loose players will play any two suited:

There are 8 spades left in the deck. One of your opponents have to have at least the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to beat you.

Kx[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] : 7 combinations
Qx[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] : 6 combinations

A total of 13 combinations can beat you (and most of which a LA or LP will play them).

13/C(45,2) = 0.013

P(not) = 0.987

with 2 opponents:

P(not)^2 = 97.4% chance you're good.

BTW.... cap the flop, cap the turn, cap the river. I think you're most likely against a lesser flush and a set.

davelin · #8 11-10-2004, 10:31 AM

Check-raise the flop, you don't want BB's raise to possibly shut out the other two players.

CWsports · #9 11-10-2004, 10:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Check-raise the flop, you don't want BB's raise to possibly shut out the other two players.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I was thinking as well.

maryfield48 · #10 11-11-2004, 08:54 AM

No-one directly addressed this question:

[ QUOTE ]
Under normal circumstances, I don't worry too much about flush over flush. But in this case do I pay no heed to the LP-A in MP2 who after calling PF & flop bets & 3-bets the turn & river?

[/ QUOTE ]