KK - Player wakes up on the turn

[JoshuaD]

Party Poker $1/$2 Hold'em (10 People)

Preflop: JoshuaD is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](10 Players)
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, JoshuaD raises, 2 folds, CO calls, 3 folds, UTG+2 calls.

Flop 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](7.5 Small bets, 3 handed)
UTG+2 checks, JoshuaD bets, CO calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Big Bets, 3 handed)
UTG+2 bets,<font color="red">JoshuaD ??</font>


I didn't know what to do here. What would you do?

[PokerIsLife]

I think this is dependent on a read of the player. If he tends to be aggressive, then I would raise, and call a 3-bet, and call the river. If he's more passive, then I would call down.

[DMBFan23]

[ QUOTE ]
If he tends to be aggressive, then I would raise, and call a 3-bet, and call the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this line just because there's another player to consider (who we'd like out), and who knows what UTG+2 is doing. he could put you on overs and be waiting to bet his 8.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is dependent on a read of the player. If he tends to be aggressive, then I would raise, and call a 3-bet, and call the river. If he's more passive, then I would call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

I folded, and I think it was the right move.

The only hands out there that I've got beat are lower pocket pairs or the diamond draw. I just don't see what UTG+2 would waking up with besides that 2. If I didn't have CO acting right behind me, I like a call down, but in a 3-way pot, assuming CO just calls to the river, I think I've got less than 10% of this.

If CO raises, I'm in even worse shape, and need to fold right there. It seems to me that hands like this, where I "just call down" from the turn, are my biggest leak. If the pot was double it's size for whatever reason, I like your "if he's aggressive" line, but the pots only 5 BB's, I think I'm better off just letting it go.

[Entity]

Without a read, I don't like folding here. Did you have a read?

[GrunchCan]

Well, it sure is obvious what UTG+2 wants us to think he has. But what 2 is he limping with PF and not betting/raising with on the flop? Suited A, suited K maybe. I think you'll have to call it down.

[btspider]

i call it down. the third player either has a healthy draw or is way behind. I'd prefer to keep UTG+2 bluffing or betting a worse hand and getting a couple overcalls from the third player.

[trumpman84]

Wow, I hope I'm not the only one here who think folding is terrible. I will never ever fold an overpair for one bet. If anything I think this 2 helps your hand as it protects you from BS two pairs. I think opponent just picked up a draw and is semi-bluffing. If he has a two, he is check raising, if he has flopped two pair, 8's and 6's, he's behind your kings and twos now, if he has a flopped set, now full house, he is check raising...I can't see him betting into you here with a hand that beats yours.

I'm raising here..what hand are you afraid of? Someone limping UTG+2 with a two? I know this wouldn't be totally out of the question in these limits but fold for one bet? I think your hand is good here 60% or more here at these micro limits.

Do you regularly fold overpairs when an opponents shows no strength then makes his first bet/raise of the hand? If so, I think THAT might be a huge leak in your game.
AT least make him show you that he has you beat. A bet on the turn here means anything from 4 high to four of a kind 2's.

EDIT 2: Read the post "Why you guys aren't crushing these games" or something like that. It talks a lot about folding too much for only one bet with hands like top pair, no kicker, not to mention an overpair on a pretty friendly board.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
Without a read, I don't like folding here. Did you have a read?

[/ QUOTE ]

No great reads. It was only the first or second orbit after I sat down, but if I recall correctly, CO had VP$IP around 20%, UTG+2 around 45%. I'm gonna go double check these numbers, but I'm pretty sure they're right, and it's all I had.

I had my mouse over the raise button as I was thinking, but I just couldn't figure out a hand he would wake up with there. His action is certainly consistant with a 2; while I couldn't think of anything else that made any sense except maybe an Ace (making 2 pair top kicker). If it was just me and him in there, I definitely would have raised, but I don't like calling or raising with CO behind me for alot of reasons.

If I raise, CO has to fold. If CO calls or re-raises, I'm almost certainly beat at this point, and will call only If I can see a showdown for one bet. If CO does fold (which I figure will happen around 75% of the time) I still have to deal with UTG+2. If he calls and checks, I bet. If he calls and bets, I call. If he re-raises, I'm getting no better than 14:1 (with implied odds) to draw to my 2 outer, which is a clear fold.

If I just call, I still want CO to fold. If he raises, I'm again, almost certainly beat. I probably have to let it go right there. If CO just calls, my best situation, I bet/call the river.

For what it's worth, there's my reasoning. All the ugly things CO could do to me by dropping a raise in scared me away.

The way I was thinking was this: If CO wasn't here, I'm right to fight for this pot, but it's only marginaly profitable because the pot is so small. With the ability of CO to hijack the money I put in there, and the fact that him folding/calling is only marginally profitable anyway, I should just lay it down and wait for a better place to get my money in.

[Entity]

Why are you so concerned about CO? He's drawing slim if he's behind, unless he's got 7d9d or something lovely like that. Play this one out, and only fold if it comes two cold to you on the turn/river.

Rob