KK - Player wakes up on the turn

[AlmightyJay]

Folding is ridiculously weak-tight. He could have a lot of hands that you're ahead of. Maybe he picked up a spade draw. Maybe he has an 8 and thinks you have overcards, like someone else mentioned. Or maybe he's seen you make bad folds like this before, and decided to make a play at you. A lot of Party players like to bluff when there is a pair on the board. For a single bet, you can't immediately assume he has a 2 here. Raise, and if he 3-bets, then you should be worried. You're definitely good more than 20% of the time here.

[JoshuaD]

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Do you regularly fold overpairs when an opponents shows no strength then makes his first bet/raise of the hand? If so, I think THAT might be a huge leak in your game.

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This is the first time I've made this sort of play. I was looking through my hand history, and I was losing alot of money "just calling down" from the turn. I couldn't find or recall any hands where calling down when I was pretty sure I was beat from the turn has won me a pot. (Doesn't necessarily mean I don't have any, I just couldn't dig any up)

It's 2 bets for ~8, and there are alot of ways I don't even get to see the showdown. If the pot was doubled in size, or even 3/2 the size, I think you guys are right, but this pot just isn't large enough.

[Sent]

Whoa you cant fold here, he bet out on a weak card, people who just hit trips rarely do that, Ive seen this move way to often on the turn, people betting into you when the board pairs, I raise here. Someone people bet out with trips, most dont, the move doesnt makes sense. Raise that bastard, I wouldnt fold here just yet.

-Sent

[trumpman84]

it's a 5 BB pot, big enough to fight for in itself and it's going to be 11-12 BB when you raise on the turn and win the showdown, PLENTY big to be fighting for, can't rake in a 20 BB pot every time. In the post "Why you guys aren't crushing these games" the poster describes a big pot simply as "one that has been raised preflop".

Reguardless of the pot size, I am at least calling this down every time and most of the time raising the turn because I am 60-80% sure Kings are good here. I would be surprised if the better has you beat here. There is just no reason given all the strength you've shown that if he just improved to a hand that beats yours, why he wouldn't check-raise, and even if he check-raises, I'm calling down.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you regularly fold overpairs when an opponents shows no strength then makes his first bet/raise of the hand? If so, I think THAT might be a huge leak in your game.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the first time I've made this sort of play. I was looking through my hand history, and I was losing alot of money "just calling down" from the turn. I couldn't find or recall any hands where calling down when I was pretty sure I was beat from the turn has won me a pot. (Doesn't necessarily mean I don't have any, I just couldn't dig any up)

It's 2 bets for ~8, and there are alot of ways I don't even get to see the showdown. If the pot was doubled in size, or even 3/2 the size, I think you guys are right, but this pot just isn't large enough.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your read has to be right greater than 20% of the time. It's going to cost you 2 bets to see the showdown, and the pot will be 11 bets assuming a calldown (CO doesn't raise). You've got to be right over 20% of the time here. With no reads, do you see why it's a calldown? There are too many cards he could be betting here.

Rob

[JoshuaD]

HOT DAMN! I misposted the hand. I was trying to figure why everyone was so strongly disagreeing with me on this one.

The flop should read 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], with the 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] double pairing the board.

on the 862 board I would ABSOLUTELY raise with that KK.

I can't edit the original post, but the hand was 8822, would you fold here?

[easypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Big Bets, 3 handed)
UTG+2 bets,<font color="red">JoshuaD ??</font>

What would you do?

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I don't know how many times I've seen this from a spade draw, queens, Jacks, Tens. The list goes on. I'm definitely <font color="red">raising</font> here. I think you are way ahead, and if not so be it. Raise, if you are 3-bet... call down. If UTG+2 just calls... then bet the river.

Folding is a distant distant 3rd choice here.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Big Bets, 3 handed)
UTG+2 bets,<font color="red">JoshuaD ??</font>

What would you do?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know how many times I've seen this from a spade draw, queens, Jacks, Tens. The list goes on. I'm definitely <font color="red">raising</font> here. I think you are way ahead, and if not so be it. Raise, if you are 3-bet... call down. If UTG+2 just calls... then bet the river.

Folding is a distant distant 3rd choice here.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'm just double posting this so no one misses it.


HOT DAMN! I misposted the hand. I was trying to figure why everyone was so strongly disagreeing with me on this one.

The flop should read 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], with the 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] double pairing the board.

on the 862 board I would ABSOLUTELY raise with that KK.

I can't edit the original post, but the hand was 8822, would you fold here?

[trumpman84]

Hey Josh,

When the board double pairs, UTG+2 is most likely betting out with an ace b/c he just "made" his hand 8822 with an ace kicker, or a lower pocket pair ...this is a really safe pocket pair board..betting to see if you are just holding overs. CO calling on the flop means he has any two cards, but if he too comes to life on the turn, THEN you can conclude you are behind, but really, do you think CO is cold calling a raise with an 8 or 2 in his hand? I still raise this. The board is REALLY safe, MUCH safer than 4 cards all of different ranks (only 4 cards in the entire deck that can beat you and most of them are folded preflop) When only 4 cards in the entire deck can beat you and there are only 2 players left in the hand, that means it is time to raise, if you get 3-bet or the CO wakes up behind you, then you can make a weak fold, but a less weak fold, but the correct play is still to raise or call down.

Did anyone happen to show down on this hand? Do you know the results?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
The board is REALLY safe, MUCH safer than 4 cards all of different ranks (only 4 cards in the entire deck that can beat you and most of them are folded preflop) When only 4 cards in the entire deck can beat you and there are only 2 players left in the hand, that means it is time to raise, if you get 3-bet or the CO wakes up behind you, then you can make a weak fold, but a less weak fold, but the correct play is still to raise or call down.

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I've never looked at it that way before. I figure my KK's drawing to 2 on this board if I get any sort of action. I don't give 1/2 players enough credit to say they don't have an 8 or a 2 here.

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Did anyone happen to show down on this hand? Do you know the results?

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Yea, I know both their hands, but I wanna hear some responses about the real hand before I put them up.

The more I think about it, the more I think raising was also right on the 8822. I wish this thread didn't start off so wrongly, because I'm still unsure about this one.