did I overplay this?

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
Gooper - I think you have to figure that someone is going to make low here. If so, Hero has to win for high twice as often as Hero loses to want to initiate fresh money into the pot.

The way the betting has gone on the turn, it looks as though at least one of the opponents, and maybe both of them have the same ace-high straight as Hero.

Let's consider raising or not on the river.

If both opponents also have the ace-high straight, Hero cannot gain by raising, regardless of low.

If either opponent also has the ace-high straight, and if one of them also has low, Hero can only lose by raising.

Thus raising on the river is purely stupid.

Buzz

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh....on the river the Hero has the 2nd nut FLUSH, so if his opponents have the straight like he had, it's not a concern.

In addition, the low possibility on the flop produces MANY chasers in low limit Omaha 8.

I still believe the majority of the time, at these stakes, and given this particular type of action, that Hero is ahead and will secure the High, so betting and getting the other three bumping it up more is only going to win you more bets.

I can't count how many times when I started out, that I was pushed out of the pot with the 2nd nut hand when my opponents were betting 3rd-6th nuts because they have no clue (not that I'm advocating sticking around with 2nd nuts all the time, but in this situation I believe you're winning high most of the time)

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
If so, Hero has to win for high twice as often as Hero loses to want to initiate fresh money into the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
My point was that it is actually worse then that. If Hero is beat then his opponent will probably re-raise and he is going to have to put in two extra bets (his raise and his opponents re-raise). If Hero is ahead he will only win 1 extra bet so Hero will have to win more then 2:3 to make his raise profitable.

[Tailgunner]

I'll have to fall back to a play money/real money comparison... just because a bad table makes a raise profitable doesn't make it a good play. Good way to build bad habits.

With all due respect however, I absolutely agree that you must play the table you're on, and if it was as fishy as grandgnu assumes it was, I can't say a raise is necessarily a bad move here. It's simply something that I would not have chosen to do, even on a loose table.

If it was indeed that loose, what's to make me think MP hasn't stumbled all the way down with the nut flush/no low in spite of the heavy odds against him on the flop? Sure, I could easily put him on QQxx with that turn reraise.. but can I be sure enough to make a low ROI wager on the river? Nearly half the deck is on the table before the flop, and even (or especially?) against complete donks there's a very real threat of getting hosed. There are plenty of opportunities with a better profit to risk ratio than this bid to squeeze *at most* one more bet from a 20-bet pot.

He's got nothing here... nada, zero, zip. Heck, he's not even holding a third spade. A raise, IMO, is not warranted against implied odds on this river. Pot odds, maybe. Not saying you're wrong, not saying I'm right, just saying I disagree [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Uh....on the river the Hero has the 2nd nut FLUSH, so if his opponents have the straight like he had, it's not a concern.

[/ QUOTE ]

Grand Gnu - You're right. I realized Hero had the 2nd nut flush but temporarily forgot that when I stacked up chips. My goof.

Thanks for the correction.

In that case, it's close.

If Hero didn't have to call a re-raise, I agree Hero has a raise. But I agree with Gooper that when you figure in the possibility of a re-raise, Hero does better by calling.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
If Hero is ahead he will only win 1 extra bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Gooper - I like your interesting, original, innovative perspective on the math.

However, if you assume one of the opponents can make a low, a very reasonable assumption here, Hero only wins a half bet for every bet Hero risks (rather than winning 1 whole extra bet).

Buzz

[graarrg]

Thanks a ton for the help guys. I opted not to raise the flop since I was last to act and figured that no one was going anywhere for one more bet, choosing to wait for a favorable turn card (which came). With the nuts between me and another player and 4 players in, and at worst breaking even if a low dropped and quartered me on the high, I capped the turn.

I agree that the river raising might have been a mistake. I obviously confronted the possibility of the K high flush, but I didn't factor into my calculation that I'd be splitting with a low (which happens to me very often when there's an A on the board, it just doesn't factor into my instincts). If I had been holding something like J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] hit the river, I definitely would have raised, though.

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
However, if you assume one of the opponents can make a low, a very reasonable assumption here, Hero only wins a half bet for every bet Hero risks (rather than winning 1 whole extra bet).

[/ QUOTE ]
I wasn't doing that calc per bet I was doing it overall.

If hero is ahead and the third person calls:
3 people will put 2 bets in the pot for a total of 6 bets. If hero wins he will win 3 bets of which he put in 2 for a total of +1. (Risking 2 to win 1 or winning 1/2 for every bet put in)

If hero is behind and gets re-raised he will lose 3BB.

Overall he is either going to win 1BB or lose 3.

[Buzz]

Gooper - I see it. You're right. Thanks.

Buzz

[PokrLikeItsProse]

For a loose low limit game, SB's play is consistent with the nut low draw hitting on the river. MP strikes me as someone who had the nut straight on the turn and picked up either a low flush or a weak low.

I don't hate just calling on the flop. Top two pair on a flop with an ace and a possible low draw is not a nice position to be in with a high-only hand. Especially if I think I can't get anyone to fold, I would consider calling and re-evaluating on the turn, since there are so many good cards and so many bad cards that can come.

The pushing on the turn is good, especially since you have redraws.

The raise on the river is defensible, although I am not entirely thrilled about it. Actually, I don't fear the nut flush that much. Rather, I am concerned that MP has merely the straight while SB clearly has a low. To make money from the river action, you need MP to call and split his money between your high and the SB's low. I would have preferred to just call the SB, hoping for an overcall from MP, who really shouldn't call a bet and raise with just a straight (but might if he also had a decent low).

[Little Fishy]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice push on the turn to get rid of any lingering low-only draws

[/ QUOTE ]

there is no low draw on the turn