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Old 12-01-2005, 12:43 AM
aargh57 aargh57 is offline
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Default A question about interpreting PT AF and reading players

When looking at AF its raise%+bet%/call% and depending on the guys VPIP number generally, a guy with less than .5 AF is passive. Lets say the guy bets once and calls 9 times, his AF is .10 right? I think I've been using this number a little misleading. Against this guy I would probably not semibluff and definetly wouldn't bluff him as you should never bluff a calling station. However, since folds don't play into this he could've folded 100 times and his AF would still be .10 (if I'm wrong please correct me). So, how should I use this number without reads(real reads that is). For instance, I noticed one player today who would often fold on the flop but call down to the river with poor holdings if he did have something and his AF was about .5. Against him I wouldn't bet the river with nothing as a bluff but I would certainly semibluff the flop hoping he'd fold.

Certainly I should still use it(AF) to value bet but a low AF doesn't necessarily mean that he won't fold or folds rarely. Hopefully I'm making a little sense and someone can help me out or correct me if I'm going astray here.

Also, what about when you get mixed reads from someone. Another example, a player would bluff on the river with broken draws but also payed out with weak holdings. If I write bluffer/calling station in my notes that's a little inconsistent. (I'm not talking about a good player here either that would call large pots when he had second pair or something. This guy would call down in pretty hopeless situations but would still bluff a fair amount)
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Old 12-01-2005, 01:40 AM
tinhat tinhat is offline
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Default Re: A question about interpreting PT AF and reading players

[ QUOTE ]
So, how should I use this number without reads(real reads that is).

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I misread it or maybe you didn't mean it to come out this way but (for me anyway) I don't use anything as a substitute for reads/observation (guy could've been fired that day and playing out of character; could've just had massive beats before I got there and is steaming, also possible he's really improved since the last time I saw him). Even with stacks of info on the guy stats are like at the bottom of my checklist; lot of times I don't even look at them.

Here's a link with some pretty good AF info I think addresses what you're really interested in:

web page

As far as notes, I try not to generalize (works for me); and unless the guy is a reliable super psycho I try not to even characterize him. Mostly what I do is put down exactly what happened that made me want to make a note. This is more helpful (to me) so that when I see him again I don't have to wonder "now why did I say this guy was an assclown?"

Mike
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Old 12-01-2005, 03:03 AM
Monty Cantsin Monty Cantsin is offline
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Default Re: A question about interpreting PT AF and reading players

[ QUOTE ]
Lets say the guy bets once and calls 9 times, his AF is .10 right? I think I've been using this number a little misleading. Against this guy I would probably not semibluff and definetly wouldn't bluff him as you should never bluff a calling station.

[/ QUOTE ]

AF won't tell you whether someone is a calling station or not. You are correct that AF isn't a good indicator about whether someone is going to fold, and you wouldn't generally use AF to determine whether to bluff or semibluff a player.

For example, let's imagine two players who you've bet into on 100 turns.

Player 1 folded 60 times, raised 20 times, and called 20 times.

Player 2 folded 20 times, raised 40 times, and called 40 times.

Both players have the same AF (of 1).

But, from a purely statistical point of view, player 1 is 3 times more likely to fold.

If anything, Went to Showdown or Folded on [Street] is the stat you would look at it to indicate how (statistically) likely someone is to fold to a bluff.


[ QUOTE ]
Certainly I should still use it(AF) to value bet...

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. In general, AF is best at helping you interpret a player's bets. When a player with low AF bets or raises, it is more likely to mean a strong hand.


[ QUOTE ]

Also, what about when you get mixed reads from someone. Another example, a player would bluff on the river with broken draws but also payed out with weak holdings. If I write bluffer/calling station in my notes that's a little inconsistent.


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe part of the problem is that we are trained to equate calling with passivity but they are two distinct things.

I like to think of a separate attribute which is tenacity. A tenacious player is one that doesn't like to let go of a hand. They might always bet with nothing or they might never bet the nuts, but in either case they hate to fold. Day in and day out they're always there, clinging to my pots like a barnacle. Oh God how I hate them. And yet I love them, too. Sorry, what were we talking about?

/mc
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Old 12-01-2005, 12:33 PM
aargh57 aargh57 is offline
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Default Re: A question about interpreting PT AF and reading players

Thanks for the responses guys. I think that I should put a lot less weight on my PT "reads" and rely more on real reads. That article that tinhat linked had some good stuff in it even if I knew some of it, it explained other things that I didn't know well. One thing that kind of answers my question was:

"Generally speaking, you should adjust your perception of their AF based on how often they fold up to that point. If they fold a lot, that high AF doesn't mean they are they are all that aggressive, and if they rarely fold, a low AF may not mean every bet is legitimate."

It also goes on to talk about not relying solely on AF or any other single number stat to determine how legitimate the guys bets/rasies are. I think I just have to pay better attention. I've been trying to do this with limited success. I've tried to keep better notes on all the players but I think I sometimes play too long. It starts getting very hard to keep taking notes on the guys after playing 1 or 1.5 hours. I think I should take more short breaks during my playing time.
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