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  #21  
Old 12-05-2005, 04:15 PM
tinhat tinhat is offline
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Default Re: Need a line check in the BB

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This seems fairly sensible; but you said you had 10 hands w/them (IIRC) so really you have no idea what your worst outs are (IMO).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I do. 95% of the time a two-card flush (i.e. a flush that uses both of your hole cards) is going to be good, so until that third

[/ QUOTE ]

W/all due respect, IMO no you don't; I'm not sure you're following what I'm getting at: I have one and only one overriding thought here - the flop pot was plenty large to try winning right from the start. And that's all that's on my mind

So as simply as I can put it, IMO c-r flop means you have now virtually guaranteed that you MUST hit the fl to win. You have foregone what was already a great pot and (I'm assuming) tossed out any other options, locking yourself into a must-hit draw by tying everyone to the pot.

Consider the unk but assumed 3-out gutshots; betting into utg and praying for a raise, folding any of them is huge because if you hit your J's you're now not losing to their str. Tying them to the pot means that option is gone.

Consider the 45o idiot that isn't going anywhere now because he's put so much in the pot; he could conceivably hit a 4 or 5 and win; IMM ANY hand is a threat with a pot this large; folding them is an option now gone.

What I have the problem with is instead of having the fl as a backup if you cannot win the already large pot w/a lesser hand, IMO tying everyone to it right from the start makes hitting the fl your ONLY option.

I'm going to catch a lot of [censored] for this but IMM helps demonstrate my point; we're not talking about highly skilled, extremely clever players here; they're morons and I don't discount anything happening at $1/2 (and I expect to be called a moron after posting this hand):

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB caps</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, Button calls.


Flop: (13 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, SB folds.

Final Pot: 7 BB



Some ppl (maybe most/all) think betting flop is stupid; but IMO there is no other option on a 3-way pf capped pot - it's too big. I can either give up w/o even trying, get cute, etc., but I had 0 chance to win by checking and IMO is easily worth a 1 sb stab.

So the chance of folding pf aggressors is not 0; it isn't high, but it's not 0. My point is that assuming you're against awesome hands and fl is only alternative is I think a mistake. And, IMO, the likelihood of a lesser hand for you winning a 10bb+ flop pot by playing aggressively to eliminate instead of trying to make a huge pot even larger is FAR from 0.

What hands can be eliminated? Who knows; but my point is that you have thrown out right from the start any other possibility other than the flush. All I'm getting at is locking yourself into a must-hit draw is too extreme when the pot was big to begin with...

Mike
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  #22  
Old 12-05-2005, 04:17 PM
tinhat tinhat is offline
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Default Re: Need a line check in the BB

[ QUOTE ]
a suited jack is definitely playable in a five handed pot against any raise let alone a poster raise

I'm surprised there is any debate about this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, help me out here. I don't hesitate to toss this w/o second thought. After a cpl replies thought maybe I better see if pokerstove shows me I'm misplaying.

blinds == rake; I picked two reasonable $1/2 hands for co/button.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

850,668 games 0.016 secs 53,166,750 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 32.0279 % 31.48% 00.55% { JcJd }
Hand 2: 27.9696 % 27.09% 00.88% { AcQs }
Hand 3: 09.9262 % 09.05% 00.88% { AdTh }
Hand 4: 19.6313 % 19.60% 00.03% { 9c8c }
Hand 5: 10.4449 % 09.90% 00.55% { Js2s }


Based only on what he knows for certain (pot size when he called), he needs 6:1 to break even. Pokerstove in this case says J2s needs 9+:1.

If my math is correct and assuming any unk hands weren't even better than what I picked, the best case might be break even longterm IF sb always calls and no one ever folds the raise.

According to what I see, J2s doesn't even have a chance to be anything other than a longterm loser. Am I missing something?

Mike
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  #23  
Old 12-05-2005, 04:37 PM
J. Stew J. Stew is offline
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Default Re: Need a line check in the BB

. . . and on the river if you're raised once you call, and if raised twice you consider folding?
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  #24  
Old 12-05-2005, 04:46 PM
jba jba is offline
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Default Re: Need a line check in the BB

pokerstove is not the tool to use in this situation
using your methodology looks like QJs is a fold too huh

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.3233 % 36.95% 00.37% { JcJd }
Hand 2: 31.0122 % 30.68% 00.33% { AcQs }
Hand 3: 17.7185 % 17.67% 00.05% { 9c8c }
Hand 4: 13.9459 % 13.29% 00.65% { QhJh }


there are a zillion threads out there that will explain in better detail why pokerstove is worthless for a thread like this, all it gives you is hot/cold equity if everyone goes to showdown. there are other factors at work like implied odds, etc that can make calling &gt; folding.

look for old peter rus post about calling suited trash in the BB after a raise and ONE cold caller (so in a 3way pot). I wouldn't advocate loosening up that much until you are playing at an expert level and the rake does not have nearly the impact as it does at 1/2 (I only play 5/10 where rake is still a big concern and i'm not close to expert -- so I don't go that far either). basically what it comes down to in the blinds is that if you fold you have -.5bb EV, so if you can find a way to make -.3 or -.4 bbs it is better than folding.


editted grammar
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  #25  
Old 12-05-2005, 05:07 PM
MrWookie47 MrWookie47 is offline
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Default Re: Need a line check in the BB

There is a big, big difference between the flop in your hand and the flop in the OP. The flop in your post has only a K. It completely missed people who don't have a K, and QQ-TT may be scared of it. In the OP, the board surely connected with whatever villains have here. They have a pair or a draw to a gutshot or better every single time. As you said, the pot is gigantic. They're not folding, certainly not everyone. Every now and then you find people who fold incorrectly, but the overwhelmingly largest mistake you find in poker is people going too far with the wrong hands. Seriously, let's say you manage to fold all the aces because you bet and someone raised. Do you think that person is folding, ever? Do you think that person can beat a pair of J's every single time? Her's a hint. The answers are no, and yes. On a board like this, you have zero chance of winning by folding everyone. Additionally, you have to hit your flush or a straight to win. A crappy pair with the crappiest possible kicker is never going to do it.

The words "win the big pots now" are sound. However, they don't apply here. They apply when you have a strong hand and are considering slowplaying. Hero's hand here is uttter trash right now, but it has a huge chance of improving to be the best hand at showdown. The other place it applies is if the board and your hand reading suggest that you can fold better hands. I challenge you to name two hands that typical internet opponents would play this way preflop and then fold the flop.
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  #26  
Old 12-05-2005, 05:28 PM
tinhat tinhat is offline
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Default Re: Need a line check in the BB

[ QUOTE ]
pokerstove is not the tool to use in this situation
using your methodology looks like QJs is a fold too huh

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I stand corrected; thanks. I have more hands to play.

So this is too complicated for any tool to reduce? Is there anywhere to see starting hand values?

Mike
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  #27  
Old 12-05-2005, 06:11 PM
bozlax bozlax is offline
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Default Re: Need a line check in the BB

[ QUOTE ]
W/all due respect, IMO no you don't; I'm not sure you're following what I'm getting at: I have one and only one overriding thought here - the flop pot was plenty large to try winning right from the start. And that's all that's on my mind

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I get that. How, exactly, do you propose that I do that in an enormous pot that hit at least a couple of my 4 opponents? That was a rhetorical question; the answer is it's not possible to take this pot down on the flop, leaving as my only option playing to hit one of my draws, and if that's what I'm going for the pot might as well be as big as possible.

The remainder of your discussion is predicated on the idea that you might be able to take this down on the flop. As I believe that's patently impossible, I'm going to stop talking about it, now.

Your example hand is night-and-day different from the OP hand. First, you're the first aggressor preflop; second, you don't have any other draws; third, the pot is nowhere near as big. In your case, I think betting the flop is correct.
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  #28  
Old 12-05-2005, 06:14 PM
DCWildcat DCWildcat is offline
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Default Re: Need a line check in the BB

Yay for a flop cap. Uberequityfuntimes. Yay for the rest of the hand as well. As for getting 3-bet with two cold back on the river...yikes...fold? There's a sickening amount of hands improving here (KK, KQ, KJ, QJ, humdiddly hum dum dum...)
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  #29  
Old 12-05-2005, 08:46 PM
tinhat tinhat is offline
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Default Re: Need a line check in the BB

Oh man. Look, I'm tired of this (too) and have nothing to say after this post but MUST say 3 things (to no one in particular):

1. I am not criticizing OP/OP's play; I've been questioning prematurely tossing away outs in a big pot;

edit: actually I just reread part of my other reply and it does sound like I'm criticizing; so I apologize because I really didn't intend that.

2. Nowhere did I ever say or hint this could/would be won on the flop. If somebody misinterprets my hand example, the point was (as I said when I posted it) something everybody must know - aggressors aren't always what they seem, don't automatically have killer hands, and even the most aggressive players can fold unexpectedly. Most importantly, they could be betting complete crap like I was. Am I saying OP pfrs will fold? Not at all. But did they connect? How big? Who knows; but when the pot is big I don't just assume I'm miles behind because of what the board looks like. So it didn't even occur to me ppl would think I was "proving" OP could win with a flop raise. I wasn't.

3. Generically, "winning the big pots now" is not at all a function of hand strength; not even close. If no one believes me you might want to take another look at sshe ppg 147-152 (and so I don't have to reply again, "no" I am not comparing sshe marginal hand example to OP; but IMM the underlying principle still applies).

Mike
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  #30  
Old 12-05-2005, 09:05 PM
callydrias callydrias is offline
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Default Re: Need a line check in the BB

Haven't read any replies, so sorry for any redundancy. (Grunch, right?) (What a stupid [non-]word...)

I cap for value. The only problem with capping, as I see it, is that, being out of position, you'll probably want to check a blank on the turn which will give your hand away. OTOH, everyone still in has a piece of that board - most likely a large piece. Anyone with 2 pair or a set will have odds to chase their boat on the river if you hit and lead out on the turn. Since they're there to stay in this huge pot, cap it up and see what the turn brings. Tread lightly if the board pairs or you make your flush on the turn (setting A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] up for a redraw).
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