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  #11  
Old 07-05-2005, 09:29 PM
CieloAzor CieloAzor is offline
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Default Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.

I don't think it's too lopsided, but I'd favor Group 1.
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  #12  
Old 07-05-2005, 10:40 PM
redsoxsox redsoxsox is offline
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Default Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.

They left out Ivey...
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  #13  
Old 07-07-2005, 01:41 AM
MCS MCS is offline
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Default Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.

KingMedicine, which side did you think was the clear favorite?
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  #14  
Old 07-07-2005, 01:56 AM
caseclosed326 caseclosed326 is offline
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Default Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.

wow they think that hellmuth and DN are more likely to make the final 9 than dan harrington
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  #15  
Old 07-07-2005, 02:18 AM
GrannyMae GrannyMae is offline
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Default Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.

[ QUOTE ]
They left out Ivey...

[/ QUOTE ]

they 'left out' a ton of people. i think the book's intention was to present a balanced list, and the names are meaningless to that degree.

as far as the OP's question, i think it is a great balance and would have set that as even money as well. though i still say that this was the point of the offer.

i think wager's designed like this are the answer to the lost revenue from field wagers (which are history. you will never see a decent money field bet offered again, and most won't offer any field action at all)
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  #16  
Old 07-07-2005, 04:28 AM
KingMedicine KingMedicine is offline
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Default Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.

[ QUOTE ]
KingMedicine, which side did you think was the clear favorite?

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought group 1 was clearly the best.
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  #17  
Old 07-07-2005, 04:52 AM
mmbt0ne mmbt0ne is offline
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Default Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.

I'd go with group 2. Group 1 has too much variance IMO. There are probably 3 or 4 players who could very conceivably run up 200k stacks in the first day, or bust by level 3.

Overall, group 2 seems to have a lot more of a slow and steady kind of feel. I would be willing to bet a small amount straight up that group 2 has more ITM finishes than group 1, and if I was betting on this, I'd lean towards picking group 2 as having a higher overall cash.

Also, a quick trivia question:

When was the last time Johnny Chan moneyed in a 10k buyin tournament (according to Hendon Mob)?

<font color="white">1992</font>
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  #18  
Old 07-07-2005, 08:51 AM
chev9 chev9 is offline
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Default Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.

If you're looking for an angle play...bodog is offering heads up last longer bets, and they clearly state all bets are action. We called them and e-mailed them to confirm that this means tough luck if one of the guys doesn't play at all...well, two matchups include Dutch Boyd, who mentions in his blog that he doesn't have a seat or the money to get in...Fischman was -140 and Gank -120 as of yesterday against him...all they have to do is show up...
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  #19  
Old 07-07-2005, 09:49 AM
hopp hopp is offline
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Default Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.

Here's some stats from the past (year-placed) in the money in the main event:

Group 1:
Dan Harrington 87-6th, 95-1st, 96-17th, 03-3rd, 04-4th
Chris Ferguson 00-1st, 04-26th
John Phan 04-31st
Phil Hellmuth 88-33rd, 89-1st, 01-5th, 03-27th
Barry Greenstein 00-31st, 03-49th
Johnny Chan 87-1st, 88-1st, 89-2nd
Tuan Le (no money in main event, two WPT 1st's in last 7 months)
Michael Mizrachi (no money in main event, 6 in the money this year in other WSOP events)
John Juanda (no money in main event)
Antonio Esfandiari (no money in main event)

Group 2:
Doyle Brunson 76-1st, 77-1st, 80-2nd, 82-4th, 83-3rd, 04-53rd
Mike Matusow 01-6th, 04-87th
Scotty Nguyen 98-1st, 03-18th
Howard Lederer 87-5th, 03-19th
Daniel Negreanu 01-11th
Erik Seidel 88-2nd, 99-4th
Ted Forrest (no money in main event)
Erick Lindgren (no money in main event)
Layne Flack (no money in main event)
Scott Fischman (no money in main event)

What if neither team finishes in the money? I'd be suprised if two people on the same team make it in the money.

I'll root for group 1.
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  #20  
Old 07-08-2005, 03:14 AM
mmbt0ne mmbt0ne is offline
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Default Re: Interesting WSOP ME - Sportsbook Bet.

Chan and BG both out. My "told-you-so" shirt is fitting just right so far.
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