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  #11  
Old 06-17-2005, 01:53 PM
TRBNGR TRBNGR is offline
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Default Re: Shorting party poker

[ QUOTE ]
Free money in the long term, no?

Number one reason being that incredible growth is already priced in and certainly not sustainable.

[/ QUOTE ]

GOOG
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  #12  
Old 06-17-2005, 02:51 PM
meow_meow meow_meow is offline
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Default Re: Shorting party poker

Worst Idea Ever....

First, on what are you basing your belief that growth is priced in?
Looks like it will be trading at a forward PE of about 20, not super cheap for a company in a mature industry, but does that really describe partygaming?

Do you expect Party's growth to come to a dead stop this year? next year?
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  #13  
Old 06-17-2005, 06:02 PM
Dan Mezick Dan Mezick is offline
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Default Re: Shorting party poker

Alot of people believed that about AMZN at IPO time and got a lesson in forced awareness.
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  #14  
Old 06-17-2005, 06:55 PM
solucky solucky is offline
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Default Re: Shorting party poker

I bought today empire and paradise, and i also will buy a few partys. 20 times earnings is not cheap, but also not really expensive. I guess 50% profit next 3 years is possible.

Wolfgang
PS: If the shares dont work it means poker is tightend up soon or go down soon...that would make me more nervous
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  #15  
Old 06-17-2005, 07:26 PM
michiganfan9 michiganfan9 is offline
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Default Re: Shorting party poker

definitely goog
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  #16  
Old 06-17-2005, 07:27 PM
michiganfan9 michiganfan9 is offline
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Default Re: Shorting party poker

[ QUOTE ]
Worst Idea Ever....

First, on what are you basing your belief that growth is priced in?
Looks like it will be trading at a forward PE of about 20, not super cheap for a company in a mature industry, but does that really describe partygaming?

Do you expect Party's growth to come to a dead stop this year? next year?

[/ QUOTE ]
For me atleast I see it totally the opposite. I can't see poker playing slowing down anytime soon
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  #17  
Old 06-17-2005, 08:25 PM
Harmonica Harmonica is offline
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Default Re: Shorting party poker

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss shorting this share, because I have been looking to buy some shares in party, but they have had to already cut the price on its float price, also the grey markets have already been quoting ranges below the new ipo price range, which isn't good, all because of this scare mongering [censored] that is going on, I have heard mixed reports that the banks are have had a tough time shifting the shares and in the next breath I have heard the more specialised instituitions saying that they are really shifting shares, so who's telling the truth, add into all of this that empire online has lost nearly 15% of its value in only 2 days of trading, because of peoples concerns over the party deal, I have heard also that people reckon the price could drop quite a bit on its first day of trading, which leads me to ask this question why do the instituitions buy shares in ipo's, if they know that the share price is going to fall when the company starts trading???
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  #18  
Old 06-18-2005, 01:13 AM
ewile ewile is offline
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Location: Oceanside, New York
Posts: 104
Default Re: Shorting party poker

[ QUOTE ]
short this if you want to go broke. seriously

other gambling stocks

all my cash is either in those, or my WSOP bankroll. I'm going to hold them through the beginning of the Party IPO (few months) then reevaluate.

been making a killing on these over the past year

[/ QUOTE ]

snda
buy break over 40 target 45. Sell and wait for the next breakout.
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  #19  
Old 06-18-2005, 01:32 AM
wildwood wildwood is offline
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Default Re: Shorting party poker

Understand that people's opinions of whether a stock will go up or down are just that...opinions. Nobody knows for sure including the "experts". The market is always right, and it will gladly take your money if you argue with it. If your serious about shorting, read "How to make Money Selling Stocks Short" by William J. O'Neil and Gil Morales. Then you might have a chance. Never short a stock making new highs. fwiw
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  #20  
Old 06-18-2005, 12:01 PM
BradleyT BradleyT is offline
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Default Re: Shorting party poker

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/s...507504,00.html

London's biggest stock market flotation for years has been overshadowed by advice from Washington that the four dotcom millionaires behind the venture risk arrest and prosecution in the United States.
PartyGaming, operator of a hugely profitable poker website, is expected to be valued at 4.76bn when it floats on the stock market in 11 days' time.

The offering will transform one of its owners, Ruth Parasol, the daughter of a former San Francisco massage parlour tycoon, into one of the most successful female entrepreneurs in history.

While the company's activities are legal in the UK, the US justice department is warning that operators of online gambling enterprises could be prosecuted and, if convicted, jailed for years in America.
Internet gambling companies occupy a legal grey area in the US, with many in the industry insisting that case law shows them to be legitimate, while the justice department insists they are outlawed.

According to the department, online gambling operators such as Ms Parasol, 38, her husband, James Russell DeLeon, 39, and their partners, Indian computing experts Anurag Dikshit and Vikrant Bhargava could face prosecution under three federal statutes: the Interstate Wire Act, the Illegal Gambling Business Act and the Travel Act. These carry penalties of between two and five years' imprisonment for each offence.

The company prospectus, published yesterday, concedes that its activities "are considered to be illegal by the relevant authorities" in the US, but says case law has established that online poker sites are excluded from the legislation controlling gambling. It also says its four founders have travelled in and out of the US with impunity.

Ms Parasol and Mr DeLeon have declined to give interviews, refused to be photographed and are rarely sighted in Gibraltar, where their company is registered and they are said to be living. Mr Dikshit, 33, is also maintaining a low profile, leaving Mr Bhargava, 32, as the public face of PartyGaming.

The company denies that is due to concerns over the legal position in the US, and insists that the company's founders want only to lead normal lives after the flotation.

The justice department's warning is likely to increase anxiety among US investment institutions, some of which are reported to be reconsidering whether to back PartyGaming.

When the company announced a flotation price of between 4.4bn and 5.1bn yesterday, instead of the widely predicted 5.5bn, it rejected claims that the cut was in response to those jitters, insisting that the price tag was a "realistic assessment" of the company's worth.

A senior justice department official told the Guardian: "Any business offering online gambling services that are in the United States or can be accessed in the US are illegal.

"The focus today is on how we can do more about it [online gambling] and how we can charge people. If they are American citizens, it would be a little easier for us. They can face prosecution if they enter the United States."

A successful flotation in London, with the vast injection of capital that would bring, would make little difference in Washington, the official added.

"If they're taking bets in the UK, and it's legal there, that's fine; but if they're taking bets in the United States, that's il legal, and they will be prosecuted."

PartyGaming disputes the justice department's interpretation of the law in the US, and said yesterday that no company offering similar online gambling services had ever been prosecuted there. A spokesman added: "The US does not have legislation specifically regulating online gaming and therefore there is uncertainty as to its legality."
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