Do we take the free card?

[Saborion]

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It's WSD and W$SD.

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Is W$SD over 80 hands more useful than knowing Villain's shoe size?

Villain plays 80 hands, sees maybe 50 flops, takes 18 hands to showdown, and wins 10 of them. Showdown win rate measures the overall consequences of a player's style and thus must converge very slowly. Pots are primarily distributed by luck. W$SD is similar to win rate in this respect.

Contrast that with a stat like PFR% which converges much faster because it directly measures player's decisions instead of the consequences of those decisions.

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I don't "rely" on WSD and W$SD until I have at least 700+ hands. I guess I just included them out of habit.

[StellarWind]

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Is the flop fold really that easy?

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Don't recall saying it was easy. I think it's close but you should fold.

3.5 seems pretty reasonable for the overcard outs.

2.5 is too much for the backdoors. I'd give you 1.5 for the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] but the queen is worth less.

A clean 3-way backdoor straight (KT/T8/87) is worth 1.5 outs, but that assumes that if you turn a straight draw you will be adding four or eight new outs. First off the 87 branch is just a chop so 1/4 out disappears right there. Second there is a risk that our backdoor straight will complete the flush. But the biggest problem is straight draw cards are toxic. If we get our king we add four straight outs, but our 3.5 overcard outs need to be reduced. Really it's not even a call on the turn at 5-1. Similarly an eight would add six outs for the half-chopping double gut, but the 9865 clump doesn't make me feel very good about spiking a pair on the river. He called 1.5 preflop so his board pair is apt to have a nearby kicker for two pair or the straight. The ten is also lame and a seven is completely uncallable.

Note that it doesn't matter if you disagree with my judgment that a turned king cannot be called because the decision is obviously at least close.

Mathematical concept: suppose that it is just barely correct to call the turn if card x comes. That means the EV of calling is just barely positive because folding has zero EV. Then the possibility of turning card x is virtually immaterial when deciding whether to call the flop.

When you decide to pay 1 SB to call the flop you are saying that the hand you will get on the turn will on average be worth at least 1 SB. Getting an off king in our example hand is obviously a very bad result whether you think the turn hand has EV = 0 (turn needs to be folded due to inadequate odds) or EV = 0.1 SB (barely worth calling the turn in your opinion). Either way the king possibility won't make a meaningful contribution to justifying a flop call.

The problems described above drain away much of the EV that you would normally get from picking up a straight draw. So even though you might soldier on after picking up such a draw, it's a salvage operation and there isn't much money in it. I'm not inclined to pay much on the flop to try to create such a draw, meaning I'm going to sharply reduce the number of outs I take for the draw. Saying a backdoor draw is worth an out is a shorthand way of saying it adds the same EV as a real out.

[StellarWind]

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On a side note, What the hell is HIJACK?

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The Button+2 seat, analogous to Cutoff being Button+1. I don't know why it's called that but I like the term because it has an objective meaning, whereas terms like MP and UTG depend on the number of players which makes them inconvenient for discussing first-in preflop play.

[Saborion]

So I checked behind on the river. He either had something and would call, or he had nothing and my Q-high may be enough to win. My opponent flipped over K3 of clubs and won with K-high.

[MarkD]

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On a side note, What the hell is HIJACK?

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The Button+2 seat, analogous to Cutoff being Button+1. I don't know why it's called that but I like the term because it has an objective meaning, whereas terms like MP and UTG depend on the number of players which makes them inconvenient for discussing first-in preflop play.

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It's called that because about two months ago Tommy Angelo named it that in Mid-High Stakes and it has just kind of stuck. Tommy wrote a thread about it - that's where it came from. I think the title of the thread had the word Hi-Jack in it.