20+2, TT on the bubble

[gumpzilla]

I was pretty low on chips and sucked out to get back to where I am. I think jholt will fold to a push over the top quite rarely here. I've done no math, just curious what people's intuitions are.

Seat 2: racer1143 (6190 in chips)
Seat 4: jholt (3335 in chips)
Seat 6: gumpzilla (2920 in chips)
Seat 9: pokmyneedle1 (1055 in chips)
pokmyneedle1: posts small blind 75
racer1143: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gumpzilla [Ts Tc]
jholt: raises 350 to 500
gumpzilla: folds

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I think jholt will fold to a push over the top quite rarely here.

[/ QUOTE ]

any sense of how loose he's openning? if he's raising light, that could be a good thing.

you have 20x stacks - i like a call better than a fold. i think i'd call unless i thought there was a decent chance villain is openning A6, 33, 78, etc, in which case i'd push.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

any sense of how loose he's openning? if he's raising light, that could be a good thing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the somewhat large PF raise for this stage in the game, from this player, is probably going to be a largish pair, AT+, maybe KQ. This guy had a tendency which I noticed more postflop to bet small with junk and bigger with quality. So I think he has confidence in what he's holding, at least, though precisely what that means I'm not sure.

[ QUOTE ]
you have 20x stacks - i like a call better than a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given his bet and that I'm in the CO, I don't think the stacks are deep enough for me to be getting the implied odds to spike a set (again, I've done no math here) and the presence of the shortstack means I'm probably going to puss out if any overcards falls and he fires out. So I don't much like calling for that reason.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

I think the somewhat large PF raise for this stage in the game, from this player, is probably going to be a largish pair, AT+, maybe KQ. This guy had a tendency which I noticed more postflop to bet small with junk and bigger with quality.

[/ QUOTE ]

This really should be in the OP.

I was going to say that this is a clear push given stack sizes (he's pretty much guaranteed to bubble if he loses, even though he has you barely covered), but with your read you can fold.

I don't like calling for the same reasons as you, and also I have to fold to a squeeze play push from the big stack.

[RedRum]

I think this is a push or fold situation. Given your read he won't fold very many hands, you're only really behind 4, AA-JJ. How many other hands can you assign him that you're ahead of? AK-JT?

Are you willing to risk bubbling out to get 6k chips and almost guarantee 2nd/1st? I can't answer that for you, I'd be very tempted to push here.

Drink More,
RedRum

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the somewhat large PF raise for this stage in the game, from this player, is probably going to be a largish pair, AT+, maybe KQ. This guy had a tendency which I noticed more postflop to bet small with junk and bigger with quality. So I think he has confidence in what he's holding, at least, though precisely what that means I'm not sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

ok, then i'd fold.

unless you're very confident in this tendency, in which case i'd call pre-flop and then fold overpairs to a big bet and push over small bets on AKx flops.