Newbie Stud Hands

[rory]

Two hands:

First hand.

50/100 live mixed holdem and stud game, 10 ante, 15 bring in. 9 handed.
2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] brings it in. Loose Player 1 (LP1) raises with a T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] up, Likes To See Fourth Player 1 (LTSFP1) cold calls with a 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Very Good Player (VGP) makes it 3 bets with the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] up. I have the 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] up and T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the hole. One heart is out, as is one ten and a five. I'm positive all players involved in the pot so far, barring the bring-in, will call if I call. Do I call?

I catch the 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on fourth, VGP catches the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] to make an open pair of kings. LTSFP1 catches the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] to go with his 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. VGP bets-- am I going to the river here, even though VGP could have trips and LTSFP1 behind me might be drawing to a higher flush?

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Second hand.

Very aggressive player (VAP) open raises 3 off the bring-in with a 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] up. Reasonable player (RP) 3-bets him with a J up. I have 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the hold with the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] up. 3-bet? What if I am pretty sure VAP will not fold his hand if I 3-bet?

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Thanks, I'm a stud noob and these situations are tough.

[jon_1van]

In the 2nd hand I'm pretty sure you should just fold if your 3-bet won't get you heads up.

The reason A66 does ok versus Higher pairs is that you'll win when you hit the Ace and you'll win when you make some random 2 pair and your opponents higher pair doesn't improve. When you have mulitple opponents your "random 2-pair" value goes down dramatically.

I have to go to work now...more about 1st hand later

[Bartholow]

Short answer: I'd fold both hands.

[TS Clark]

I agree with what was said above. Neither of these hands can stand the kind of heat they're seeing on 3rd. They're marginal/situational hands. Dump 'em on 3rd and save yourself the bets.

[rory]

A lot of the responses said to fold both of these hands. I am confused, because if I run a twodimes simulation on reasonable hands my opponents could have on hand #2, I get this:

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s 6s 6c as - 9h 9s qh - jh js 8d
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 6s 6c 164121 32.82 335873 67.17 6 0.00 0.328
9s Qh 9h 162416 32.48 337549 67.51 35 0.01 0.325
Js 8d Jh 173427 34.69 326542 65.31 31 0.01 0.347

Which shows I'm pretty much even money against these hands, even if I cannot force the original 9 to fold by 3-betting. The 50/100 game is a relatively high ante game, so there is $95 in the pot including the bring-in on 3rd. A raise and a reraise means it is $100 to me. If I just call and let the original 9 in, then I am getting almost 3:1 on my money, including the money in the pot already. Since I am even money if the 9 calls anyway, shouldn't I reraise to try to get it heads up? Isn't folding here the worst of my 3 options? I am very confused about how to think about 3rd street play in stud.

In hold 'em, I know that running these sort of showdown simulations is really not useful because the postflop play is so important. But in stud it seems like the hands are not that far apart from each other so that if there is a bunch of money in the pot on 3rd, you can just auto-call down with an overcard and a little pair assuming your opponent doesn't catch a bunch of scary cards.

So.. I'm confused. Help!

7CFAP has a lot of 3rd street advice that seems contradictory and confusing to me, and I am having a hard time figuring out what sort of hands to play when. Sorry for the really basic questions!

[jon_1van]

A big thing you have to consider when viewing these simulations is....will you actually get to the river?

Lets say I have 567 on 3rd and I put my opponent/s on some hand/s

I very quickly go to twodimes and run some simulations and I notice that I'm "even money" to win the hand. Should I continue? Remember that those simulations assume I always see the river. Those simulations include the times I get a brick on 4th and 5th, and then go perfect,perfect to win it on the river. Would I actually continue in the hand after 1 brick?


Now, another thing you have to consider is what if your Ace is in another opponents hand? When your average scenario is just about even money, folding can't cost you much.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
Short answer: I'd fold both hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. Having AKx, AQx or even QJx as your starting 3 fl against a big pair and possibly another 3 fl is a major difference from T5x. Catching a small blank on 4th hurts one real bad but not the other.

[Spladle Master]

Fold third in the first hand. Call fourth but do not necessarily go to the river.

Hand two you should reraise even if you don't think anyone will fold. Might make someone fold incorrectly later in the hand. Even if this doesn't happen you still aren't sacrificing much (if any) equity with a three-bet. Only way a raise is real bad is if someone has AA in the hole, but I wouldn't be too concerned about that. Ante structure dictates L-A play, so do it. Oh, and if VAP doesn't fold a pair of nines when you reraise you're gonna make a killing in this game.

[Bartholow]

Yeah, I get the boob award for not noticing that the ante is large. So hand 2 is playable for sure, there still might be times I would fold. Hand 1 I definitely fold on 4th and probably still on 3rd.

[Andy B]

"Newbie" playing $50/100. Maybe I should move back east.

Naaaaah.

First, a bit on the nomenclature: someone brings it in for $15, another guy completes the bet to $50, and another guy raises to $100. The raiser has made it two bets, not three. Now if you call the completion a raise, fine--I do that sometimes myself. But when you call a two-bet a three-bet, it confuses me.

Damn hold'em players.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Anyway, I call the two bets on third street with a live three-flush and two bad players in. Even though your cards are small, you have a decent amount of equity, and this hand should be reasonably easy to play from here out.

On fourth, we've hit a snag. It is very likely that the very good player has trips. Now a very good player might make it two bets with a big three-flush or some such, but I think that this is less likely given your characterization of the guys who are already in. Against bad players, you don't need to use a whole lot of deception, and presumably the good player knows that. Even if he doesn't have trips, he probably has two big pair, which will still fill up once in a while. The good player most likely has the best hand and the best draw, and as you have observed, you might not even have the second-best draw. I'm not one to fold flush draws on fourth street very often, but I think you have to in this spot.

The second hand is interesting. I am assuming here that you are facing two bets, not three. If you were to raise, it would basically be for the purpose of getting the original raiser out. Since you don't think that that will work, don't raise for that reason. I am always amused by people who try to knock out people who won't be knocked out, especially when it's me. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I am assuming that all Aces and Sixes are live. If not, fold. Hopefully, spades are reasonably live as well. I think you have enough hand to continue, considering that there is nearly one small bet in ante and bring-in money. One problem with your hand, however, is that you will usually have to act first for the next couple of rounds. If you don't act first, that usually won't be good news.