A common pair vs draw situation

[KdoubleK]

Ok I hope this warrants response. Live 20-40, laggish but sensible player open raises from MP1, button calls, I call from BB with 88, 3 to the flop. Flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I lead hoping to get raised, MP1 obliges, button folds, I 3 bet, raiser 4 bets, I call. Turn is 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I check, he checks. River is blank and I instabet. He ponders then folds A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] face up. My question is, in situations such as these where I might be against a draw on the turn but could also be against a bigger pair, is it correct to always lead out on a blank? There's no question that I give up a lot by allowing a free card, but if I lead and get raised by a player whos capable of pushing a draw what then?

[PDosterM]

He has already paid four small bets for his “free” draw, so if he is on a draw, you already accomplished your aim with your nice reraise on the flop. A turn check by you might give you some information based on whether he bets again or not. Once he checked the turn and no club appeared on the river, you might think about checking the river to induce a bluff. I have noticed that people who will “pay any price for a free card” are aggressive enough to bluff in this situation, and if he was on a draw, he won’t call your last bet anyway.

Since he is representing a strong hand on the flop (and has paid dearly to do so), I think the turn check is OK. But if you had not reraised his flop raise, I would certainly suggest betting out the turn when it came a blank.

[Bay]

check call river he will prob put in a bet thinking you might have missed your draw as well

[elmo]

Why would you bet with AK if you think your opponent missed their draw...

[KdoubleK]

Regardless of how much I've made him pay on the flop, its still a mistake to give a draw a free card. The problem is since he's capable of playing an overpair the same way I don't know where I'm at when a blank hits the turn. So when I bet do lose more when he's ahead than I make when he's behind (assuming I take it to the river every time)? Basically, what's the more profitable play here? I'm not a math player so that's why I'm posting. BTW, I instabet the river to make him think I'm just betting because he showed weakness on the turn. I maybe get a call this way. He's not dumb enough to bet a card lower than 9 on the river so checks behind 100% of the time.

[PDosterM]

There are two parts to your response.

[ QUOTE ]
Regardless of how much I've made him pay on the flop, its still a mistake to give a draw a free card. The problem is since he's capable of playing an overpair the same way I don't know where I'm at when a blank hits the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You answered your own question. It’s a mistake to not bet and allow him a free card IF HE IS ON A DRAW, but it’s a mistake for you to bet if he has an overpair. Since he has reraised you, it is more likely that he has an overpair than if he did not reraise you. Be happy his ploy for a cheap draw failed, and see what happens next.

Second:

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, I instabet the river to make him think I'm just betting because he showed weakness on the turn. I maybe get a call this way. He's not dumb enough to bet a card lower than 9 on the river so checks behind 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has a card lower than a nine, the only way he can win is to bet to your river check if he thinks you were on a draw as well. Your check may induce that bluff. If you bet out on the river, I still don’t see a reasonable player folding any hand that beats you or calling with any hand you can beat. That means your river bet can lose but never win.

[Mempho]

[ QUOTE ]
Why would you bet with AK if you think your opponent missed their draw...

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of people will bet in desparation anyway, hoping you will fold a small pair.

[bone77]

you're saying that after you've already checked behind on the turn then you'd expect a lot of people would bet a river blank? no way.