AA hands

bizaff · #1 06-29-2005, 02:01 AM

Hand 1

Villain is 75/20 over 20 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) converter

Hero ($24.75)
UTG ($38.25)
UTG+1 ($11.55)
MP1 ($32.9)
MP2 ($23.25)
MP3 ($15.1)
CO ($9.95)
Button ($16.25)
SB ($52.65)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, 2 folds, SB (poster) completes, Hero raises to $1.25, MP2 raises to $2.75, MP3 folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $4.75, MP2 calls $2.25.

Flop: ($10.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Bingo. I'm not afraid of the straight, I'm not afraid of the flush, I want to do whatever I can to get stacks in the middle. I figured a bet would scare away KK and QQ, so I'll check-call, and lead out the turn.

Hero checks, MP2 bets $2, Hero raises to $6, MP2 calls $4.

After $2, things aren't progressing quickly enough, so I raised to $6.

Turn: ($22.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Again, I'm not afraid of a flush or a straight - I'm still convinced I'm way ahead.

Hero bets $12.25

Everything look reasonable? Is the flop ok?

bizaff · #2 06-29-2005, 02:04 AM

Villain is 33/5 over 60 hands

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

UTG ($35.45)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($21.35)
MP2 ($34.05)
MP3 ($24.75)
Hero ($30.85)
Button ($24.25)
SB ($24.75)
BB ($24.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.

Flop: ($2.85) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $5, Hero raises to $12, UTG+1 calls $43.75 (All-In), Hero...?

Is this a set often enough to fold?

SirArthur · #3 06-29-2005, 02:41 AM

Hand one:
Raise more preflop. You're letting him in too cheaply here.

That's a very scary board to slow play top set.
Definitely lead out here, unless you've got a real aggressive player who you know will take a stab at it.

You've left out the most important thing here, what is your read on your opponent in this hand?

Three aces are represented, so there's a good chance he doesn't have the 4th ace. If he checks & a queen falls on the turn, now what?

With that said, you're check raise is once again far too small, raise him $8 or more here.

fimbulwinter · #4 06-29-2005, 02:44 AM

1: make it 8 preflop and push the flop.
2: you're either 50/50 against some kind of nice draw or crushed by a set. i call the flop overbet and see what he does on the turn, dumping it to a PSB.

fim

wrestler_118 · #5 06-29-2005, 02:44 AM

For the second hand lets look at the math.

The pot is $63.60
Its $31.75 to call.
So you are getting 2 to 1 for a call.

If he hit a set you have about a 10-11% chance of winning.
If he has 55, then you have about a 61% chance of winning.
If he has KK, QQ, JJ then you have about a 90% chance of winning.
Could he have 76 suited? Where you only have about a 27% chance of winning.

To make it simple lets make some assumptions:
1) if he hit a set you have a 10% chance of winning.
2) if he didn't hit a set you have a 90% chance of winning.

Let X be the % chance the villain hold a set.
Then (1 - X) is the % chance the villain doesn't hold a set.

Then you have the formula:
X * 10% * $63.60 +
X * 90% * (-$31.75) +
(1 - X) * 90% * $63.60 +
(1 - X) * 10% * (-31.75)

That simplifies to:
$54.07 - 76.28 X

Set the equation to zero and solve for X.
X is aprox 70.8%

If you read that the probability that the villain holds a set is greater that 70.8% then you fold,
Else you call.

fimbulwinter · #6 06-29-2005, 02:57 AM

1. very good analysis, this i the type of thinking that makes you a winner long term
2. you neglected what may be his most likely holding however, namely a big hand that's 50/50 (45, 56, 75) which have monster outs against him. this moves your 90% figure down quite a bit, so if you plug in ~60% instead i'd say you have a much better model.

nice post.

fim

bizaff · #7 06-29-2005, 12:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1: make it 8 preflop and push the flop.
2: you're either 50/50 against some kind of nice draw or crushed by a set. i call the flop overbet and see what he does on the turn, dumping it to a PSB.

[/ QUOTE ]

1: Yeah, my last reraise was pretty weenie. I think my math left me for a bit. Then the flop push makes sense.

2: I like this line too. The flat call may slow him down, and a big turn bet lets me get away cheaper than the reraise on the flop. If he checks the turn, I PSB?

bizaff · #8 06-29-2005, 03:29 PM

Good approach, but I'll tweak your numbers. Effectively, the pot is $44.10, and it's $17.60 to call - his stack is bigger, so his all-in is really smaller, making it easier to call.

Using your numbers (which neglect what fimbulwinter said about the pair + straight draw) we get

X * 10% * $44.10 +
X * 90% * (-$17.60) +
(1 - X) * 90% * $44.10 +
(1 - X) * 10% * (-17.60)

which simplifies down to x ~= 77%.

As an exercise, I'll run through the whole thing based strictly off hand frequencies.

AA-JJ - I'll assume I would've either seen a raise or a re-raise.

TT - 6
99 - 6
88 - 6
77 - 3
66 - 3
55 - 6
44 - 3
54 - 3
65 - 3
76 - 2
75 - 3

I'm assuming the connectors must be suited.

2 combinations = 4.5%
3 combinations = 6.8%
6 combinations = 13.6%

(TT) .136 * (.88 * 44.10 + .12 * -17.6) = 4.99
(99) .136 * (.88 * 44.10 + .12 * -17.6) = 4.99
(88) .136 * (.74 * 44.10 + .26 * -17.6) = 3.82
(77) .068 * (.10 * 44.10 + .90 * -17.6) = -0.78
(66) .068 * (.11 * 44.10 + .89 * -17.6) = -0.74
(55) .136 * (.61 * 44.10 + .39 * -17.6) = 2.73
(44) .068 * (.11 * 44.10 + .89 * -17.6) = -0.74
(54) .068 * (.54 * 44.10 + .46 * -17.6) = 1.07
(65) .068 * (.51 * 44.10 + .49 * -17.6) = 0.94
(76) .045 * (.26 * 44.10 + .74 * -17.6) = -0.07
(75) .068 * (.52 * 44.10 + .48 * -17.6) = 0.98

Summing these gives me $17.20 per time I call.

I don't think TT-88 is too reasonable to go all in with, so removing those gives me $3.40, still a reasonable call - every other pair he could have is just gravy.

Can someone better than me at this verify if this is right?

bizaff · #9 06-30-2005, 12:19 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) converter

Hero ($24.75)
UTG ($38.25)
UTG+1 ($11.55)
MP1 ($32.9)
MP2 ($23.25)
MP3 ($15.1)
CO ($9.95)
Button ($16.25)
SB ($52.65)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, 2 folds, SB (poster) completes, Hero raises to $1.25, MP2 raises to $2.75, MP3 folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $4.75, MP2 calls $2.25.

Flop: ($10.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $2, Hero raises to $6, MP2 calls $4.

Turn: ($22.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $12.25, MP2 calls $12.25 (All-In).

River: ($47) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $47

Results:
Hero has Ah Ad (three of a kind, aces).
MP2 has Jc Kd (flush, ace high).
Outcome: MP2 wins $47.

I was utterly speechless.

bizaff · #10 06-30-2005, 12:21 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

UTG ($35.45)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($21.35)
MP2 ($34.05)
MP3 ($24.75)
Hero ($30.85)
Button ($24.25)
SB ($24.75)
BB ($24.25)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.

Flop: ($2.85) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $5, Hero raises to $12, UTG+1 calls $43.75 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $63.60

I folded. Unless I have a solid read as a set, this was incorrect.