Hung myself by my own hooks

[nixma]

I dunno... 4-handed, I'm gonna guess that my JJ is pretty good, but JJ is one of those hands that absolutely hates to see a flop, because there's going to be a Q, K or A on the flop well over half the time. If you open for a "standard" raise and get called, you may have a pretty problem when the flop puts one or more of those higher cards out there. Plus, if a standard raise is going to pot commit you, I think you just push preflop and give your opponents a tougher call and give yourself an easier way to play the hand. After all, JJ is too good to throw away.

In any event, given that you had been stealing plenty of pots, I think pushing is the right move here to represent another steal. It seems like the best way of inducing a mistake, and like I said, 4-handed I'm going to guess that my JJ is the boss by a wide margin. You just got unlucky.

[William]

In any event, given that you had been stealing plenty of pots, I think pushing is the right move here to represent another steal. It seems like the best way of inducing a mistake


Ever hear the story of the little boy who shouted "wolf" one time too many?

So you think that because he has been stealing a lot, he's chances of taking the pot right there are good?
Funny, but I think just the opposite is going to happen.

William

[William]

Yup. It's all luck.

Yup, for some it is.
But that's the reason we post here, to try to change that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

william

[CrisBrown]

William,

There's a big amount of short-term luck involved in poker -- for anyone -- and over the course of a single SNG or even a single evening or week, a couple of unlucky hands can negate a whole lot of good play very quickly. Middle pairs (QQ-99) on shallow money are a prime example.

In this case, Salt had ~2000, with the blinds at 75/150. If he's going to 3xBB open-raise, that's going to be a quarter of his stack out there. The AQ is almost certainly going to reraise him, and then what? Does he muck his JJ, in a four-handed game, and kiss off 25% of his stack? I wouldn't, and I think it'd be foolish to do so. Given that call any reraise anyway, the better move is to push all-in himself. The all-in raise gives him maximum equity for his short stack.

Were he at a more passive table, where it was more likely that his 3xBB pre-flop raise would be flat-called, then a stop-and-go move might worked. But from the tone of his post, I don't see this table as passive, and that negates the stop-and-go.

His other possibility was to limp -- surely you're not going to suggest that he should muck JJ in a four-handed game -- but in a $5.50 SNG, AQ would surely have raised, and probably enough to set him all-in. Then what? Fold the best hand and wait for a better opportunity? Sorry, but I just don't see that happening here.

I think Salt played the hand fine, and got outdrawn in a coin flip. That's going to happen. About half the time, actually. Ideally, you'd rather avoid coin flips at the bubble, but short-stacked and holding JJ, I think you have to take your chances. In this situation, he was too short-stacked for tricky post-flop maneuvering, and he just got the wrong side of the coin flip.

Cris

[ThaSaltCracka]

hmmmm...
maybe I should have elaborated on the table a little. I know for a fact that I would have been called if I had raised 3x BB, I am not positive I might even have been reraised. This was a fairly loose table, I saw many calls with Kxs, Axs.
However I think, Cris, you may be right, and I think others may have said it as well, I was probably going to be re-raised all in by the AQ, thus I prob. have to call right? Although, what if AQ simply just calls, then I can push on the flop and taken it down(hopefully). So basically my point is.... if all my chips were going to go in anyways (atleast it seems that way to me), why not try the alternative of hopefully seing a flop first before doing it.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya Salt,

[ QUOTE ]
However I think, Cris, you may be right, and I think others may have said it as well, I was probably going to be re-raised all in by the AQ, thus I prob. have to call right? Although, what if AQ simply just calls, then I can push on the flop and taken it down(hopefully). So basically my point is ... if all my chips were going to go in anyways (atleast it seems that way to me), why not try the alternative of hopefully seing a flop first before doing it?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're talking about what Greg Raymer calls a stop-and-go move, I agree that this is often a great tactic with the middle pairs. That is, you make your standard open-raise, intending to move in on the flop regardless. What you're hoping for is a flop with no overcards, so Ax and Kx will fold. But even if the overcards do hit, you're going in anyway.

Why?

Let's say you'd open-raised for 450, leaving you only 1550, and you were called. An Ace hits the flop, and you fold. You're in the BB next hand, with only 1400 after posting. If that hand isn't playable, you're in the SB next, with only 1325 after posting. If the blinds escalate -- you didn't say how long til the next blind increase -- you're down to 1250 (only 6xBB) once the blinds pass you.

In short, if you fold to an Ace- or King-high flop, you're into all-in-or-fold territory from then on. And you might well not get a better opportunity than the one you have now with your JJ.

So, if you open-raise and are called pre-flop, you pretty much have to push it in on the flop, even if an Ace or King hits. Your opponent might be on a smaller pair, or he may be on an overcard that missed (e.g.: he's on KQ, flop is A-T-4), etc., and you can't just assume that you're beaten on an Ace- or King-high flop.

So the stop-and-go move doesn't really reduce your risk of ruin any, because you're planning to move in on the flop no matter what. What it does is give your opponent another chance to fold. That's where it's equity comes from.

In this particular situation, I don't think it'd have made much of a difference whether you moved in pre-flop, or did a stop-and-go. He might well have called you regardless, and often as not, opponents will call a stop-and-go with only overcards, hoping to catch at the turn or river.

And that's what I meant in my original response, when I said that the outcome here is, to a large extent, out of your control. With a middle pair vs. overcards, on shallow money, the chips are going in more often than not. I think you played the hand fine -- although the stop-and-go was another viable alternative -- but either way, I think you were going to have to survive a coin-flip showdown.

Cris

[ThaSaltCracka]

I think if I had done the stop and go method he would have folded on the flop. I dunno, if he had lost he would have been below 1000, so he would have been hurting, however this is a $5 SnG, so more than likely that wouldn't have factored in his thinking [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

Cris,
BTW thank you for explaing the sit-and-go move, I have heard people talking about it before and now I know what they are talking about.

[CrisBrown]

Hiya Salt,

[ QUOTE ]
BTW thank you for explaing the stop-and-go move, I have heard people talking about it before and now I know what they are talking about.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're welcome. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Cris

[cferejohn]

4 handed with just over 10x the BB left, I'll make a 'standard' raise to 450 or so, but I'm calling all-in like a shot if I'm reraised. JJ figures to be the best hand 4 handed the vast majority of the time. It's the 19th best hand out of 2652 possible. If you aren't happy taking a risk by getting all your chips in here with these blinds, umm, go play chess.

[William]

obviously if people actually read my answer to salt, we wouldn't be waisting each others time with long tactical explanations.

[ QUOTE ]
Salt,

I would have bet 600 pre-flop, called and/or moved in if reraised.

On the flop with small cards, I would have moved in. This gives you a small protection against later overcards (if the others fold) but it also pays less if your hand is good at showdown.


[/ QUOTE ]

William