A Sticky Stud Eight or Better Situation

[Alex Scott]

Here's a nasty situation that I hate to find myself in when I play Stud 8.

Lets say on fifth street you have (K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Your opponent is showing 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] You check and your opponent bets. At this point your opponent's most likely hand is a made low, possibly with a freeroll for high.

(Lets not worry ourselves with how we got into this nasty situation by the way.)

Now, as the owner of the ugly-looking high hand, we would clearly call all the way, hoping to get half the pot back, if we were being offered pot odds of 1000 to 1. If we were being offered pot odds of 2 to 1, as in pot limit Stud/8, we'd clearly fold without much hesitation.

My question is - at what point does the pot get so big that you should call all the way with a one way hand, hoping not to get scooped? 10-1? 20-1? 100-1? Lets pretend we know nothing about the upcards and that our opponent has at least an inside straight draw to go with his low. I'm sure the exact number would vary depending on lots of different factors, but I'd like to get a general idea.

I found myself in this unpleasant situation twice after getting heads-up with a low draw last night. Both times I was getting about 10-1 from the pot, but I wasn't quite sure what to do.

[Nick_Foxx]

In almost every such case (where you have made 2 big pair), you will be enough of a favorite for the high side to automatically check-call all the way down. I wouldn't fold unless I was beaten on sight

[nanoCRUSHER]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's a nasty situation that I hate to find myself in when I play Stud 8.

Lets say on fifth street you have (K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Your opponent is showing 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] You check and your opponent bets. At this point your opponent's most likely hand is a made low, possibly with a freeroll for high.

(Lets not worry ourselves with how we got into this nasty situation by the way.)

Now, as the owner of the ugly-looking high hand, we would clearly call all the way, hoping to get half the pot back, if we were being offered pot odds of 1000 to 1. If we were being offered pot odds of 2 to 1, as in pot limit Stud/8, we'd clearly fold without much hesitation.

My question is - at what point does the pot get so big that you should call all the way with a one way hand, hoping not to get scooped? 10-1? 20-1? 100-1? Lets pretend we know nothing about the upcards and that our opponent has at least an inside straight draw to go with his low. I'm sure the exact number would vary depending on lots of different factors, but I'd like to get a general idea.

I found myself in this unpleasant situation twice after getting heads-up with a low draw last night. Both times I was getting about 10-1 from the pot, but I wasn't quite sure what to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm no authority on stud 8/b but here's my academic try:

Assuming he has an inside straight draw and the low already made, he will hit his inside straight draw about 17% of the time (add 1% if he has the ace and can two pair higher than yours). Thus, your pot equity is about 41% (twodimes). Also, you can figure he will bet out on fifth, sixth, and seventh streets, totalling three bets you will have to put into the pot, simply to win half. For calling all the way to be correct, the pot would have to be at least 4.5 big bets (including his bet on fifth street).

If you figure your opponent to have an OESD along with a made low, your pot equity is about 35.6% (twodimes). Therefore, to call three bets, the pot would have to be at least 5.4 big bets.

*Note* simulations do not account for dead cards, but you should [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

*Note 2* if anyone finds mistakes in my logic please let me know

check-call...it cost you three bets to win 5...while the wheel is a possibility a raise with 245 board is common with a 4 low...also a mid pair in the hole wouldn't be outta the question...once the pot grows so large you gotta make some cryin calls

This is probably the toughest situation i face in eight or better. I've recently got in the habit of folding spilt or even wired kings in early position, if there is an ace to act behind me, or if i just don't feel like dealing with it, even if kings are live. Some of the times I do play kings in this spot and make kings Up I go on to lose the whole pot. Not counting times when hands get checked down, I usually get scooped about once in every 3 hours and it is usually in this exact situation. If I do get stuck in this type of situation I usually just go ahead and check call to the river and hope I can get away with it. When I do get scooped in a pot it is almost always with Kings up to a low straight or small trips. My best advice is to just fold hands like this on 3rd. Its hard to do at first but you will see that you actually save more money this way than you will win. I would rather fold the best hand 5 times then get scooped once. I will always take a good low hand to a good high hand. I tend to play weak tight at times but I almost always show a profit playing this way. I hope this helps.

[Andy B]

With two pair, call, especially if there are 10 BB in the pot. Often, the other guy will have the low made and will either have a made straight or a straight draw. Sometimes, however, he'll be paired, in which case you will sometimes scoop. With only one pair and no draw, I will usually check and fold, though.

[Alex Scott]

I think kings is too good a hand to fold if you can get heads up against a low draw that might miss - although I'd prefer to have a low card or ace as my kicker. I definitely admit that the low draw has a big playing advantage.

My flatmate and I sat and worked on this for a while... I'll post whatever I come up with soon.