Betting system for UK soccer

[D.H.]

Good post.

[broiler]

The draw in League 2 pays between 3.20 and 3.45 on your average match to convert to decimals for you. The math works out to paying out at a rate of 30-31%.

If the draw is +EV, I would imagine that, with the juice on each wager, the sides on any game would have to have a fairly large -EV.

[broiler]

Thanks, I didn't want to let out the information since I don't want the draw to start getting the odds that the French league gets on their draws. Italy Serie A has started to draws at under 3.00 on certain matches and that was a league where the same theory had been working for the last year or so, when filtering the matches as I described.

good system, good thread. thank you!

a few questions/comments:

is there any reason not to just do the tie games separately? i.e. are you getting better odds on the tie thru parlays? i know parlays pay more but i'm trying to isolate the effect of the tie's pricing

bear in mind i'm from canada, know football/soccer reasonably well for over here, but these divisions keep changing names. anyhow out of the 5 division (numbered #1 thru #5 by me, it seems #2 and #4 are very good for ties

you could break it into home/road/scoring although not totally sure how much that would improve things.

as others said, when will the bookies change the lines? will they change the lines even if the public doesn't drive the change (i.e. will they make their proprietary bet?)..... or teams stop tying as much??

but i really appreciate the heads-up.

good thread, i used to bet on the english footbal, just one request i have for the reasonable people here: stop calling it soccer, it's a [censored] insult to the beautiful game [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[broiler]

Personally, I have been flat betting ties in division 4 as you call it. My win % on individual games does not justify making large number of team parlays. The favorites usually don't give the value necessary to justify placing a bet on them. I rarely bet on a team for less than even money because of this.

I noticed this morning that the League Championship (division #2) has 17 of 24 teams in the money for flat betting ties. I didn't do the math, but I would suspect that the league is fairly close to the magical 31% to be a money winner.

The bookies probably don't get much action on the fourth division in England. How much money could be wagered on this league? Ties are known to be the least wagered outcome for any match, so the tie action is probably minimal. My thought is that the prices could stay good for the rest of the season. Of course, that doesn't mean that the outcomes will be as good.

The bookies do make changes for draws in the top leagues. Italy Serie A just had their tie prices dropped in the last couple of weeks. I'm just not sure how much thought goes into England fourth division odds.

[FlFishOn]

Better watch out, the Mods here are real wank\\\\ dic\\\ strict.

[Mike Haven]

I'm not a big UK football follower or bettor, so I'm sure there are many better systems out there for those who know their stuff, like some of the posters in this thread.

What I like about this system is that I can look through the 50 games and pick out the two "worst" Home odds, (showing the teams that the professional and highly knowledgeable odds-makers think are the most likely to win), and the worst Away odds, within seconds. Then I look at the lower divisions' odds and try to pick a block of five games where the odds-makers have not made either team a big favourite, and select them as my Draws. Bingo. A fun bet done.

As I said, I bet £5 and hope to win about £20. On occasion I get two or three Draws and pick up maybe £60 for my fiver. I've never yet hit the full house, but £100 for £5 would be nice, one day.

[daveymck]

Paul Steeles book is the one to get for football bets, he analyses the various systems that are possible as well as suggesting one of his own, some are simple based on form or table position and can be worked out in seconds, others are more complex with weighting systems etc and need many hours of research and data analysis.

His power system does well (as to a point you would expect) but some of the simple ones are pretty profitable as well.

Amazon link to the book