The kind of calls you need to make at the $215s....

[GoldenHorde]

The calls seems much easier if BB has enough chips to maintain at least some FE if he loses, with 1425 i'm letting this go.

[Madd]

Does this make you feel better?

According to ICM, by folding NickB has 12.35% price equity.
If he calls and loses, it is 4.61%.
If he calls and wins, it is 22.82%.

So, he only needs to win in more than 42.5% of all cases to make a call profitable. Wow, 42.5% is not very much (= less than I expected) => clear call

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
sigh. when will people learn, that its not always about how +cev it is to make the call. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

My feeling is that your skill edge does not make up enough of an advantage in a Party SnG to be able to fold +EV posts like this. And this spot is marginal bordering on clear call, not marginal bordering on could be a fold.

As curtains said, you can probably fold this at the $55s, but I would say at the $215s you have to take the +CEV spots even at the cost of higher variance. Plus if you win your opponents know you are willing to call with A2o and thus will raise you less.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
My feeling is that your skill edge does not make up enough of an advantage in a Party SnG to be able to fold +EV posts like this. And this spot is marginal bordering on clear call, not marginal bordering on could be a fold.

As curtains said, you can probably fold this at the $55s, but I would say at the $215s you have to take the +CEV spots even at the cost of higher variance. Plus if you win your opponents know you are willing to call with A2o and thus will raise you less.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also, if I do bust Curtains, that is 1 less person raising my blinds everytime, which will be good for me.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Does this make you feel better?

According to ICM, by folding NickB has 12.35% price equity.
If he calls and loses, it is 4.61%.
If he calls and wins, it is 22.82%.

So, he only needs to win in more than 42.5% of all cases to make a call profitable. Wow, 42.5% is not very much (= less than I expected) => clear call

[/ QUOTE ]

My mind is too 8-tabled out to do math, but ICM does not take into account the "meta-factor" of preserving fold equity the times you fold. So...you're probably going to have to win more than 42.5% of the time for it to be correct.

At first I thought it was 200/400 blinds and thought it was an insta call, but 100/200 that's pushing it. All depends on your read of UTG and his pushing habits/his awareness of & how he values preserving his own fold equity (which is in jeopardy, maybe he's willing to open up his pushing range on this hand, maybe not....). If you fold and pay your SB, on average you'll have a few +EV chip pushing opportunities come your way (+EV due to the combination of your fold equity + your chance of winning when called) that you lose by calling and losing.

But over top 70% of hands seems a little high of a calling threshold...I wouldn't fold if I knew I was 50% (A2o vs. roughly top 1/2 of hands), or better yet a favorite here with that better than 3:2 overlay and 1.5 BB left if you call and lose (after paying the SB) with a chance to regain fold equity again by winning one showdown.

How much less than 50% to win, not sure.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
I think what makes this situation the perfect time for the call is that there are a lot of people left at this level (which happens very often in the 215s.) This makes gambling much more necessary.

[/ QUOTE ]

With his stack and the number of players left (if he wins), I very much like his chances here. Heading towards level 6 and it is 7-handed the big stack is pretty useful.

[Madd]

You calculated pot odds and CEV. I think raptor's point was that calculating the pot equity doesn't always make sense in a tournament, he wants to know the $EV. (You already know this, but again: Many times in the bubble a call would be +CEV, but -$EV.) To calculate the $EV you have to analyze the possible outcomes.

If one should call depends on the pushing range of the button, independant of the buy-in.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
You calculated pot odds and CEV. I think raptor's point was that calculating the pot equity doesn't always make sense in a tournament, he wants to know the $EV. (You already know this, but again: Many times in the bubble a call would be +CEV, but -$EV.) To calculate the $EV you have to analyze the possible outcomes.

If one should call depends on the pushing range of the button, independant of the buy-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

6 handed against skilled opponents with large blinds I think it's more important than we would like to discount. Against skilled opponents passing up +EV, high variance spots is a big mistake.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

As curtains said, you can probably fold this at the $55s, but I would say at the $215s you have to take the +CEV spots even at the cost of higher variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect raptor's point is that CEV isn't what you should be concerned about, but $ EV.

EDIT: Yikes; bubble time made me lose track of how long it had been since this was updated. I see my post is far from relevant at the moment.

[PartySNGer]

1505:805 isn't the pot odds. The push was 1005 with 100 and 200 blinds and no1 else in the pot. He's only getting 1305:805 on the call.

FWIW, I don't really like the call, maybe I'm just tighter than most (and I prob am), but in this situation with the blinds fairly minimal I don't think I would ever make a call with a hand like 22, 33, or A2. You are either a 60% favorite at most if you're right, or you're dominated. With this many people left and the blinds still only 100/200 you have time to build a stack, no need to panic already.