An unusual gutshot situation

Siegmund · #1 05-22-2005, 08:34 PM

I don't remember ever facing this decision before...

Ultimate Bet 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, CO checks, ....

Even on the button maybe I shouldn't have played QTo, but I did. I am of course folding the gutshot to a bet on the flop. But now I have a choice: do I take the free turn, or do I bet out hoping to buy a free river?

Reads: BB overdefended vs. steals and is a loose coldcaller. Somehow I doubt he could come up with a bluff checkraise in this large of a field, even if he might do it opposite a stealer.
Middle guy has been agressive, doing things like betting two overcards into a raiser if the flop is 3 rags. Pretty sure he missed this flop.
Cutoff just sat down.

topspin · #2 05-22-2005, 08:40 PM

I'd check. This flop is too coordinated for me to think I have steal potential into 3 other players; more likely one will have some piece and you'll be forced to either keep firing and hope he folds or misses his draw, or give up and check it down.

milesdyson · #3 05-22-2005, 08:42 PM

Don't bet.

1. You might get check raised.
2. They all won't fold.
3. It's not extremely likely that you get a free river even if you bet.
4. If you don't bet, you can raise the turn if you hit, yielding sweet money with which you can buy bananas.

badbill7 · #4 05-22-2005, 08:47 PM

not sure what is so unusual decision is pretty clear dont give the free card place a bet and go from there. you will either get a free turn card if you miss or you can fold if bet into on turn. pot is small but you could win it now with a bet

badbill7 · #5 05-22-2005, 08:52 PM

sorry my memory is short didnt see the two flush or how close board was i change my answer to a check also. still getting these things straight

kapw7 · #6 05-22-2005, 08:57 PM

I would throw a cheap bet based on your reads. Getting someone to fold is always good. I wouldnt invest any more money UI in later rounds.

Siegmund · #7 05-23-2005, 04:54 AM

At the table, I tried a bet; everyone called, but they checked through the turn and let me buy seeing the river for one small bet. I was planning to fold if I got raised on the flop or bet into on the turn.

Of course, blanks came, so I folded on the end, and I'm not sure I can say the play "worked" as it did cost me one small bet vs. just check-folding all the way.

kapw7 · #8 05-23-2005, 07:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
At the table, I tried a bet; everyone called, but they checked through the turn and let me buy seeing the river for one small bet. I was planning to fold if I got raised on the flop or bet into on the turn.

Of course, blanks came, so I folded on the end, and I'm not sure I can say the play "worked" as it did cost me one small bet vs. just check-folding all the way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking at the flop again (possible flush-straight draws) I think it's impossible to steal enough times to make the bet profitable. Just take the free card. (Note to self: Shouldn't make any posts when half asleep in the middle of the night)