Overthinking Micro Stakes?

Im wondering about this. Im trying to build my br up so I can play at 400nl... right now Im more suited monetarily to 25 and 50nl. The problem is, it feels like Im overthinking the opponents... and end up losing because of some "smart" play that it seems they dont understand. During the limited times I jumped to 100nl, I fared better. anyone else feel this way? is it hubris? do I ABC it up, or jump?

thoughts.