SNGPT says it's negEV....

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

Huh? I think your action reads need a little work. If you push, BB is folding effectively 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see this situation extremely rarely, so I don't have a good idea. But I'd think that BB would need at least an average level of savviness to put this together. I think he can fold with a lot of garbage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see many BBs at the 22s calling with 66 or A8 type holdings, either.

Ok, my expected value analysis:

QQ is 18% against KK, AA
QQ is 56% against AK
QQ is 71% against Ax, Kx
QQ is 67% against Axs
QQ is 80% against a lower pair
QQ is 85% against two lower unpaired
QQ is 78% against lower suited connectors.

It's of course possible he has AA, KK, but his big bet says he doesn't want action, so these aren't likely. Most likely is A8+, K10+, or a lower pair. I'm anywhere from 67% to 80% to win. Lets use 74% as our odds of winning.

If BB folds to hero's all-in and CO calls: EV:
Hero wins:
Stacks are: CO 1755
Hero 2055
SB 4060
BB 130
Hero is 1st 30%, 2nd 38%, 3rd 30%, and 4th 2%
My EV when I win (74% of the time) is .3*100+.38*60*.3*40+.02*0=64.8
Total EV is .74*64.8 = $47.9

If Hero folds, BB calls, we'll say Cutoff wins 58% of the time. When CO wins:
Stacks: CO 3025
Hero 915
SB 4060
My chances are 1st 15%, 2nd 25%, 3rd 60% for an EV of $54. When BB wins:
Stacks: CO 2390
Hero 915
SB 4060
BB 635
My chances are 1st 10%, 2nd 20%, 3rd 40%, 4th 30% for an EV of $38. Given CO wins 58% of the time, my total EV is .58*$54+.42*$38 = $47.28

If BB folded every time, the correct move in my example is to push all in, though it is really a toss up. You could change percentages for 1st-4th, and also for winning the hands, and get a different answer. IMO, you should also factor in the fact that occasionally BB will call, and that occasionally CO will fold, with both cases making the EV for raising all in more than the EV for folding.