NHL Play I like tonight

[TheRake]

Philadelphia is coming off an overtime win last night against Florida and going on the road vs a good Carolina team. My numbers say Carolina should be favored around -127.

Take Carolina +104 (pinnacle)

TheRake

[housenuts]

i don't like it. philly is such a better team than carolina

[TheRake]

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i don't like it. philly is such a better team than carolina

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Sure Philadelphia is a good team, but they are going to lose games occasionally. Playing the 2nd game of a back to back against a good team in a tough barn with loud fans increases this chance. Philly very well may win, but there is value in this line.

TheRake

[housenuts]

ok i can buy that. i'm not an avid sports bettor. i just do it for fun. right now i'm more about maximizing my wins rather than taking small value bets that will more often than not lose. if i ever get more serious maybe i'll look at pushing small edges like this.

just curious how did you come up with this...
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My numbers say Carolina should be favored around -127.



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[TheRake]

[ QUOTE ]
just curious how did you come up with this...
[ QUOTE ]
My numbers say Carolina should be favored around -127.


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I set up a spread sheet that uses Sagarin's NHL Ratings along with other offensive and defensive statistics to compare the 2 teams. I then use these numbers to try and predict a percentage each team will win against the other then turn that into a moneyline to compare with the book's number.

This is just a raw number. There are other factors that need to be looked at in order to make a good decision, but I am hoping it gives me a good starting point to find value. I am still working out some details before I can fully say I know the numbers are semi accurate.

I agree. Carolina just beat ottawa in a similar situation.

I agree with you, for the same reasons you listed. But I got Carolina -105. Didn't look around. Dammit.

PS, the idea that the Flyers are a "much better" team than Carolina may not prove to be true. The early season pundits killed teams like the Rangers, Carolina, and Washington. They were supposed to be the 3 worst teams in the league. While Washington isn't showing much, they haven't been awful, and you know what the other 2 teams have been doing. So I am putting little value these days on those pre-season write ups.

Great call on the game. 5 goals in the third to overtake an obviously tired team.

Thanks for the tip.