5/10 - Top Card Repeats & Villian Represents it.

Villian is in CO and is 51/9/0.65 after 188. BB is loose passive. The table has a few maniacs, so everyone seems a bit on tilt.

Pacific 5/10 limit - 5 handed

Preflop: I'm on the button with pocket 8's
UTG raises, Villian calls, I re-raise, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Villian calls.

Flop: 4 9 6 two diamonds
checked to me, I bet, BB calls, Villian calls.

Turn: (7.7 BB) 9
checked to me, I bet, BB calls, Villian check-raises... call down? fold? Raise??

Currently 11.7BB in the pot. My effective odds for a call down are about 6:1. I always find a move like the villians is dubious, i.e. representing the trips when the top card repeats. I may fold if it was the second card that repeated.

Trent.

[Emperor]

[ QUOTE ]
Villian is in CO and is 51/9/0.65

I always find a move like the villians is dubious, i.e. representing the trips when the top card repeats. I may fold if it was the second card that repeated.

Trent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree except when their Aggression is below 1, AND they check raised the field. HU against anyone over a 1, I call down.

With this guys passiveness, and it being multiway, I would not be suprised to see a Royal Flush here. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

The villain is bad and doesnt know about the difference between raising to knock people out of the pot or raising the field. All these guys see is a paired board and a chance to bluff. Even the LPs bluff trips.

The 9 is a good card for you. You arent expected to improve to a better hand anyways. Your play is dependant on whats on the board. When the 9 hits, its less likely someone has a pair higher than you do (and unlikely for someone to have trips).

Soooo I 3bet here in hopes of knocking the BB out so his overcards dont kill me on the river.

[kelvin474]

Bright, I agree with your analysis, it sounds good.

How LP is this villain really?

Usually, (High VPIP)/(Postflop aggression of X) is a more aggressive player postflop than (25 VPIP)/(Postflop aggression of X). However I haven't thought much about what level of aggressiveness a 51 VPIP/.65 postflop aggression translates to.

[akishore]

Normally, I'd fold, but if you're confident in your read that this is a bluff a decent percent of the time (epsecially since you say everyone seems to be tilting a little), go ahead call down. You're getting around 5-to-1 effective I think, and it's reasonable to think that your average equity is better than 17%.

I'd say raising is bad bcause no one (especially on Pacific) will fold to two cold in UTG's spot after they've already put in one bet on the turn.

Just call and call.

Aseem

[imitation]

3-betting would be ridiculous, you call down, but i expect to see trips, TT-AA often, but pot big rah rah.

[Emperor]

[ QUOTE ]
Bright, I agree with your analysis, it sounds good.

How LP is this villain really?

Usually, (High VPIP)/(Postflop aggression of X) is a more aggressive player postflop than (25 VPIP)/(Postflop aggression of X). However I haven't thought much about what level of aggressiveness a 51 VPIP/.65 postflop aggression translates to.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going to let you in on a secret that no one has brought up yet. When you have a 51/10/1 , YES that guy is betting and raising a LOT of trash.

When you have a 51/10/.5 , This guy is FOLDING 4x as many hands as the other guy. as postflop agression appoaches 0 the number of hands FOLDED compared to VPIP increases exponentially.

A 51/10/.65 is AN ABSOLUTE TON more passive than a 25/10/.65.

Everyone knows that postflop aggression over 1 is proportional to VPIP. Anything LESS than 1 is inversely proportional however.

Somehow this has been missed.

I put this guy on quads.

[PTjvs]

Villian called an UTG raise cold here preflop. From sane players, most likely hands are something like KQs, AQs, and medium pocket pairs. This guy doesn't seem very sane however, so i would expand that to include big pocket pairs (which this sort of villian often likes to slowplay), and complete trash that may indeed include a 9. I am not disciplined enough to fold here unless I have a good bead on opponent as never bluffing, but I expect to see a set, 9, or larger pocket pair very very often. Folding is the best idea I think, unless when you say "everyone seems on tilt" you mean that villian in particular has made some plays at pots with air. 3betting is terrible, even if you can fold to the cap that is sure to come.

I actually hate the preflop 3bet too. You are sure to get at least 3way action, and at Pacific it's very very likely to get one of the blinds to come along too. 88 doesn't have an equity advantage against that sort of field.

jvs

P.S. UTG has dissappeared from your hand history post-flop. Did he fold the flop?

I didnt realize the difference in passivity amounts that those stats indicate, so that seems important too.

But if you are wanting to continue in the hand, how is 3betting worse than calling? A huge amount of cards in the deck beat you. If you just call and the check-raise was a bluff, expect to still be beaten by the BB's overcards a large portion of the time. Its a lose-lose situation.

[DMBFan23]

these guys aren't thinking TAGs, you are almost ceratinly behind no and if the BB doesn't have a pair (which may or may not have you beaten - 88 and 77 seem possible here) he will have a lot of outs. you don't have a lot of equity in this pot at all, I really don't think you win it 16.5%.

it's 5/10, not 50/100 - I think this is a fold.