Losing with 33 - some hands for inspection.

[TripleH68]

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I would quit limping them in MP as well when you are the first player to enter the pot. The likelyhood of getting raised is much higher than when you limp in early position and the probability of getting 5 players to the flop is lower.

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A quick look at PT filtering for position proves this advice to be very good.

[TripleH68]

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Hand 5 I would consider raising preflop if the blinds are tight.

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I have had success raising low pps preflop and will cautiously look for more opportunities.
My pfr% in full ring is right at 8% so I am curious...

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Aaron, the single pocket pair I'm holding does little to drop the odds. It's a lot closer to 46 % than 25 %, that's for sure. I am holding one of 26 pocket pairs. If you rule out those two cards that I'm holding, there's still plenty of ways to make pocket pairs.

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There aren't really 26 pocket pairs. Out of 1326 possible hands, there are 78 pocket pairs. So normally we have a 5.9% chance of getting a pocket pair. If we have a pocket pair, then there are 73 ways left for someone else to get one, out of 1225 possible hands, for a 6.0% chance.

Assuming a 10 person table, the chance that one or more other players holds a PP is:
1 - (94%)^9 = 43%
This also assumes that each player's hand is independent of the others, which isn't true but probably doesn't affect it that much. I might be wrong.

Anyway, that might seem like a lot but if only one other player has a PP, I think there's only a 1% chance of us both flopping a set. If we flop a set, there are only two cards left for him to also flop a set with. Here's the math if you want:
176 flops where we both flop a set out of 17296 possible flops. Feel free to dispute these numbers.

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176/17296 possible flops that hit both PP.= .101%
*number of times both have PP = .43*.101 = .004%

+ Hero has pocket 3s. 6\73 times Hero will have the set over set (33 vs 22) and 1/73 can't happen (33 vs 33)

= .004%*67/73 = .0037% = 1:270

Just in case your interested.

22 = .004 %
33 = .0037%
44 = .0033%
55 = .003%
66 = .0026%
77 = .0023%
88 = .0019%
99 = .0016%
TT = .0013%
JJ = .001%
QQ = .00065%
KK = .0004%
AA = 0

[cfjr2]

the math -
your chance for a specific pp = 4/52 * 3/51 = .004525 (220:1)
there are 13 specific pp so = 13 * .004525 = .058824 (16:1)

once you have a pp odds of another person having a pp are
12 * .004525 +(2/50 * 1/49)= .054299 + .000816= .055115 (17:1)

you have a pp = ~5.9%
playing against another pp = ~5.5%

you flop a set = 2/50 + 2/49 + 2/48 = .122483 (7.2:1)
overset = 2/50 + 2/49 + 0 (your card) = .0808163 (11.4:1)

so there is a 5.5% chance of another pp existing and an 8.1% chance of both flopping a set = .004455 (.45%) (223:1)

edit
sorry multiply the above by x where x = number of opponents (9 in 10 handed game) - also x should be the number seeing the flop - folded hands don't count.

Even with 6 people seeing the flop with you it is still very small chance
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Oh - don't forget - you may still hit the turn or river for quads or a house...of course you need to worry your house made him quads (MUBS)

rather than worry about an overset worry about flush and str8 draws - much more likely (of course you do still have outs to the house / quads)