Ever wonder if you're really a flip with A/K after limpers?

[The Student]

Here's a situation that I've been thinking about lately. Don't have the HH, but the hand went something like this:

UB $11 NLHE MTT
early levels, blinds at 20/40
5 limpers ahead of me, I'm on button with A/Ko. I raise pot to try to get it HU or just take it down. Folded to MP limper who now pushes back at me. We both started with average stacks and it would effectively put me AI too.

Here's the question:
After 5 limpers, assuming this guy has a PP other than As or Ks, is this really a flip? Is it really possible that none of the other limpers have an ace or king, and therefore, do I really have all 6 outs here against a PP?
anyone fold this here?
thoughts?

ts-

[Exitonly]

isn't is almost as likely that someone had limped w/ 89s and the guys 99's (for example) now have only a 1 card redraw?

it all balances out i think.

--

Though, if there were more action like a few raises, ,and you could be fairly sure that there was atleast 1 A or k dead, it might be worth considering..

\You should not be concerned by the fact that there's a pretty good chance that an A or a K's in the bottom half of the deck--probability takes care of that for you. However, if someone shows you all the remaining As and Ks are in the bottom half of the deck, this should affect your decision.

This situation is a mixture of the two examples I just gave. Limpers are slightly more likely to have an A or K then usual, so it's slightly less likely that an A or a K will flop. However, as it turns out, this effect is very negligible. There was an article in card player a few months (or maybe a year) ago that discussed bunching (which is essentially the same topic), and the guy showed through a computer model that it affected hands by less than 1% even in extreme situations. I'm sure you could find it if you want.

[The Student]

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Though, if there were more action like a few raises, ,and you could be fairly sure that there was atleast 1 A or k dead, it might be worth considering..

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that's what i'm talking about - the possibility that one or more of my A and K outs are already in my opponents' hands. I guess I'm thinking that against 5 limpers, at least one of them is probably playing an A or K, right? but maybe not...maybe I really am still a flip.

friggin' incomplete information!

[The Student]

I'm not sure I understand you, or perhaps I didn't make myself clear in my first post. I'm concerned that some of my A and K outs are already dead because they are in the limpers' hands. So if I assume that even one ace is in someone else's hand, then I am not a true flip against the villian's (probable) pocket pair.

I don't remember the CP article that you're talking about, but I do remember TJ Cloutier writing about bunching. He was saying that sometimes if everyone folds to a LP player, that may mean that someone in tbe blinds is actually holdinga playable hand - that all of the good hands were "bunched" in the blinds instead of being evenly distributed around the table. Is that what you're talking about?

ts-

hmm, ya maybe.. I guess the only thing I can say is that people on the net like to play aces

[Gavagai]

Even if some of your cards are dead, its not as bad as it might seem, because we can also assume that many of your non-outs are dead.

If your opponent has 99, you have AK, and 2 of your outs are dead, on the following rough calculation you have a 38% shot:

1-((42/46)*(41/45)*(40/44)*(39/43)*(38/42)) = 38%

however, if only 2 of your outs are dead, then 6 of your non-outs are dead (there were 4 other limpers), so in fact there is a 43% chance:

1-((36/40)*(35/39)*(34/38)*(33/37)*(32/36)) = 43%

but yes it seems to me somewhat likely that you will be less than a coinflip, for with 6 outs you get:

1-((42/48)*(41/47)*(40/46)*(39/45)*(38/44)) = 50%

(In the situation described you probably had odds to call even if 2 outs were dead.)

Maybe I am looking at things in the wrong way though I dunno.

Gavagai

Edit: thought I should add that, if only 1 of your outs is dead, and 7 of your non-outs are, you get:

1-((35/40)*(34/39)*(33/38)*(32/37)*(31/36)) = 50%

Furthermore, there are many limping hands that don't contain aces of kings, so you certainly aren't entitled to assume that every time in this situation at least 2 outs are dead - often none or 1 will be. So it seems that we shouldn't worry too much about it.

[The Student]

i'm not sure I follow all that you are talking about here. what are non-outs and why should I care about them?

Also, the difference between having all 6 outs left in the deck and only 4 of them left to draw for is a big deal - it's the difference between making the call with correct odds and making this call without the correct odds. I'm still looking for someone to share some of their thoughts with me about making a call getting somewhere between 2:1 and 2.5:1 pot odds with overcards against someone I'm putting on a mid pocket pair when there are a lot of limpers. So far, all I've been able to come up with is this:

Early in the tourney, people are more likely to limp with mid-strength aces (especially sooted) and marginal kings than late in the tourney. The difference being that they are more likely to either raise or fold with those same starting hands in the later stages of a tourney. Seems to make sense? If this is correct, then should it be a factor in my decision in this hand when I'm facing a pot getting about 2.2:1 on my money with A/K?

ts-

[fnurt]

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isn't is almost as likely that someone had limped w/ 89s and the guys 99's (for example) now have only a 1 card redraw?

it all balances out i think.


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Firstly, most coin flips are 55% for the pp to win and 45% for the two over cards. I'll use Ako vs 77. Losing one out brings you down to 41% and losing two outs brings you to 36%.
You start out with 55/45 or 1.2:1 drawing odds.
One out gone goes to 59/41 or 1.4:1.
Two outs missing goes to 64/36 or 1.8:1.
What you're asking weighs on my mind a lot too, because I'd hate for one of my outs to already be in the muck. I like what one person said that the 77 could have some of his outs mucked too, and it's more likely for someone to fold a 7 then and Ace or King. I've survived not thinking about it too much and assuming that it evens out. But it drives me nuts when I call with AK and then one of the other guys at the table says that he folded an ace.