Got knocked out following HOH advice

[hurlyburly]

Ouch, you got me here. I thought it was lower than that (actually lower than 0%). Forgot about the times you can actually win from behind.

So for quick table calculations, can you think of a way to adjust? I feel kind of ill knowing I'm folding too often...

[hurlyburly]

Thanks, you straightened me out. I finally thought I saw the light and was tightening up correctly, now I'm folding too often... [censored].

I don't know that I understand the complex maths behind this, but this would seem to me to be a case of raising to 2400.

To me, such a raise raise indicates that you have a strong holding - IMHO, the range of hands that will call this bet is not significantly different from the range that will call an all-in bet at this point.

If you are called, then you still have a significant amount to bet on the flop - 5800 - considering that if you have only one caller and its not the SB or BB, then the pot going into the flop would be 6000 - so you are able to make a bet for almost the size of the pot - more than the pot if the caller is the SB or BB.

If you are re-raised, then you know that you are likely up against a hand that is better than yours and, depending on the size of the raise, you can throw your hand away or play to the flop - but the point is that any hand that would re-raise your bet is likely to call your all-in bet anyway - so this is definitely a better position to be in.

My logic here may be fuzzy (I am somewhat of a noob at this point), but I definitely think the all-in bet is a bad move - if I had 5000-6000 chips, then it makes more sense.

[hurlyburly]

I am taking FE into consideration, but I wasn't taking into consideration the hand equity when called. I was just taking the straight line of % of stack gained vs. % of being called and forgetting to include the average of the times you win anyway.

[hurlyburly]

"The math is slightly off, because you haven't accounted for the 2 known cards in your hand, but the interesting fact is that if the calling range is truly this tight, it is +EV to push with any 2 here."

It woulnd't be that tight, I inserted that artificially just to make it as close (to what I thought) would be +EV. Ugh, now I'm going to need flashcards at the table since my formula is so far off...

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
10xBB is kind of a no-man's land, because you don't have much room to make a smaller raise, and pushing risks too many chips when you have a marginal hand.

I agree with curtains that there are many hands I fold with 10xBB that I would open-raise with if I had more or fewer chips.

At a tight table, though, I open this KQs for a standard raise of 2.5-3BB, and fold to a reraise. Note that your raise does not necessarily cry out "Hey! Feel free to push me off this hand!" because a raise of less than all-in from a short stack can also look suspiciously like a big hand. Since the table is tight, I think it's a good idea to try and pick up the blinds to get out of no-man's land.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course making a standard raise is okay, I just have huge phobia about putting 25%+ of my stack out there only to fold to a reraise.

[illegit]

[ QUOTE ]

Of course making a standard raise is okay, I just have huge phobia about putting 25%+ of my stack out there only to fold to a reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]
As do I, and for good reason. Raising and folding leaves you in a spot where you will DEFINITELY only be pushing or folding with your stack now in which case you'll be BEGGING for spots as good as open-pushing with KQ from MP, which you might not find for a while. And even if you do find a hand and double up you have 5xBB LESS than if you would have made a stand earlier with the KQ.

[JC_Saves]

I don't think it is a terrible move to just push all in with this hand and your position, but I don't think that it is the only play.

You say table was tight and you have an average stack. Well, I would think that you could raise 3BBs and take down the blinds if nobody has anything. If the blinds had been getting taken with this amount then that is what I would do.

The problem with pushing an average stack is that you risk everything when it may not be necessary. HOH also says don't put more money in than is needed to do what you want, which in this case is just to win the blinds.

You don't want a call here, but if you are called you have a pretty nice hand and seeing the flop and re-evaluating is not so bad. Even if you have to fold this hand, you still have FE with the stack you have left. What hands will call a 3bb raise but would not call a 10BB all in? We know AA, AK, KK and QQ will call 10BBs.

All in all, pushing is a fine move, but a standard 3BB raise would be okay as well. You are not desparate here, but you are getting close.

I think just calling is the worst option of all.

[betgo]

From here:
[ QUOTE ]
"a reraise could be JJ or maybe a resteal."

And why on earth would racing JJ be a good thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

After you raise 2.5xBB, you are betting 7.5xBB to win 14xBB, so you are getting 1.87-1 on your money. With KQs vs. JJ, I am a 1.08-1 dog, so I am much better off calling than folding.

Once you raise 2.5xBB, you have to call a push, since you are getting 1.87-1. That doesn't mean pushing is better than raising and Harrington is certainly not an advocate of always pushing.

If you miniraise, you have 1.69-1 to call a push, so you call a little more flexibility.

I prefer to push, but a small raise is OK depending on your style and the table. There may be situations where you want to fold to a reraise, but I don't think raising with the idea of folding to a reraise is a good idea.

[hurlyburly]

Yeah, my calculations were way off. Ironically, I've done a lot better since I started ignoring some of the closer decisions, but I've only been using part of the proper EV calculation in these spots.

You are right, sorry [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]