Should we play AKs against tight EP raiser?

[Ralle]

It's a tight limit hold'em game, let's say the limits are 10/20. A tight early position player opens the pot for a raise and it's folded to us on the button with AKs. We have strong indications that the blinds will fold. Should we play our AKs if we assume that our opponent would raise in this situation with AA, KK, QQ and AK?

Our opponent could have any of three combinations each of AA, KK, QQ with our suit, QQ without our suit, and AKs. Also there are six possible combinations of AKo. Using Cardplayer's calculator this gives us a 41.9% chance of ending up with the best hand in a showdown.

If the raiser goes all-in with his pre-flop raise, then our expected value is +3.0 if we call (10/20 limits), indicating that we should play the hand in this situation. But, what if there are plenty of chips left to bet? Should we still play our AKs? We can assume that our opponent will bluff with QQ against either a K or A on the board, possibly not against both. He will also bluff with AK, i.e. represent a big pair, even if he misses.

[Stork]

No, generally speaking. AA has you severely crushed, KK has you all but crushed, QQ you're a slight underdog, AKs your even, still not a favorite, and against AK you're a slight favorite.

[Tuds75]

You have to fold if you believe that the EP raiser has either: AA, KK, QQ or AKs. There is nothing wrong with folding a hand. Do you really want to invest money if you assume your behind? If even if he does have a smaller pair or smaller suited connectors, 9 out of 10 times that raise will have you as an underdog.

Just wait for another situation where you can get your money in the middle with a situtation that is more profitable to you.

Like the line from Rounders goes:
"You can't lose what you don't put in the middle"

Tuds

[Cardzy]

I must seriously be missing something about this game. An early position player opens betting with a raise and everyone folds to you on the button (the best position you can have) with AKs, and your considering folding? And people agree with this? Does this early position raiser NEVER raise with anything except the 4 hands you mentioned?

I've never played 10/20 so maybe I just don't have a clue what I'm talking about, but from watching the tables I don't find any that are "that" tight. Playing only 2-4 and below and being a tight player I raise early with as low as KQs and TT. So maybe I don't have a clue about the game your in and maybe I'm just an idiot who thinks he knows how to play.

But I am curious as to why you are so positive this guy has only one of those 4 hands and couldn't be holding something else. A player can be tight and raise early with lesser hands. Having position on him with AKs seems like it could be very profitable to me.

*shrug* but what do I know. I still have a lot to learn.

[Ralle]

I agree, that in a typical game people would not play this tight. For example, they might raise with AQ up front and get callers with AJ, KQ and worse.

Actually if the game I referred to initially is also aggressive, then maybe people would tend to limp with aces in early positions. In that case our chances go up against the raiser.

[meow_meow]

Where does this hypothetical tight-ass play?
Haven't seen him on PP yet...

[bblock99]

I think that you need to 3-bet and if he caps, then you can rethink your play on the flop. If he calls, there is a good chance that you are ahead or have a coin flip. I think that more chances than not you will not be "crushed" in this situation, or am i just crazy?

[k_squared]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that you need to 3-bet and if he caps, then you can rethink your play on the flop. If he calls, there is a good chance that you are ahead or have a coin flip. I think that more chances than not you will not be "crushed" in this situation, or am i just crazy?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that 3 betting is an interesting strategy but not necessarily going to benefit you. Like anything it really depends on the texture of the opponents you are playing against. If it is a tight aggressive game and you three bet it a quality opponent will be just as likely to re-raise or call and what they do does not necessarily correlate directly with an easy read. Good players (players who tend to raise with good cards, but aren't simply rocks...) will mix up their play. They might call with AA or KK (to trick you... now that you have shown some strength) to see the flop and then make you pay by check-raising the flop, the turn or even the river depending on the flop. You aren't going to fold for a fourth bet coming at you so the real question becomes what information are they giving off by raising or not raising and what are they trying to accomplish by giving that information off? So, I might re-raise with AA to look like I am pushing, then check if a big card hits, A or K... or I might call your three bet and depending on the board, and catch you with your hand in the cookie jar... If the flop comes big and hits you and you get check-raised after hitting the board what do you do? Do you play the rest of the way in a situation that you could be dominated? Do you re-raise for more information? Against a tricky solid (and solid is the key aspect) opponent (one who is tight aggressive) playing AK leaves you with a lot of vulnerable situations in which you will end up dominated. It all depends on your read of the opponent. I have been at tables where I knew that a player only raised 95% of the time with AA KK QQ and AK... against them I am folding! The only thing that makes a raise worth while is if the player always reacts predicatably based on the strength of his hand reraises with AA, KK but nothing less or if it is a value bet against an aggressive opponent meant to both limit the playing field and take advantage of the other players weak raising standards.

Poker is full of nuance! We are just lucky most people don't have any desire to learn about them... and so aren't tight-aggressive or tricky!
-K_squared

[TheHip41]

I'm never folding AKs preflop in limit. No way.

[rigoletto]

Reread the post people. It's not about online raising standards but about a very speific situation. Stork is the only one who got it right so far: fold. The reason is hand domination, you will have to pay off AA and KK every time you flop an A or a K.