Party 109 Bubble Push - Too Aggressive?

sergsz · #1 04-20-2005, 10:57 PM

A 4-handed push I wasn't sure about... My hand isn't very strong, but the big blind had been pretty tight (VPIP = 18%), and i figured his calling standards here would be pretty strict since a loss to a push here would decrease hist ITM chances quite a bit. The high possibility of a fold and the very significant boost my stack would get from stealing the blinds made me go with the push. Frankly, I was very surprised when I saw what he called with.

I know a lot of the more experienced posters here don't frequently respond to posts from people who aren't on the forums as much, but I'd love to hear what someone like raport or eastbay thinks about this hand.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) converter

BB (t2735)
UTG (t1650)
Hero (t1210)
SB (t4405)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to t1210 (All-In), 1 fold, BB calls t810.

Flop: (t2620) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t2620) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2620) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t2620

Results in white below: 
BB has 9c Tc (one pair, jacks).
Hero has Td 8d (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: BB wins t2620.

kyro · #2 04-20-2005, 11:14 PM

I'm smarter than both raptor AND eastbay put together. So listen to me. Push.

Degen · #3 04-20-2005, 11:16 PM

Haven't read it or the replies.

There is no such thing as too agressive.

Degen

Ogre · #4 04-20-2005, 11:18 PM

Push is fine

TheUsher · #5 04-20-2005, 11:40 PM

With hands like this, you always have to pay attention to the odds you're giving to people such as the BB. With his decent stack, he should be more than willing to call you here with lots of hands since he's getting almost 2.25:1 from the pot. Personally, I like the push if he had a smaller stack but it's still fine here, and I also like his call since I would have done the same.

sergsz · #6 04-21-2005, 12:03 AM

Good point, Usher. The BB does have +Chip EV call with a very wide range of hands. However do you think his call is +Money EV?

What's the minimum hand that would make his call correct?

What's the minimum hand that would make my push correct - it seems from people's comments that this is a clear push - is it really not even that close?

A liitle more background on the players- UTG is pretty tight (VPIP = 15%, PFR = 8%), the big stack in the SB is pretty LAG (VPIP = 43%, PFR=13%).

microbet · #7 04-21-2005, 12:21 AM

If he puts you on 22+, Ax, Kx, Q9+ then T8o is about the worst off-suit hand he can call with and still be +$EV. Your range was a little wider which makes it very slighly more +$EV to call for him.

If SB will call with [22+, A7+, KQ, KJs] and BB will call with [22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+, J9+] your push is just barely +$EV. So if they are any looser, your push will be -$EV. All by ICM, not taking other factors into account.

TheUsher · #8 04-21-2005, 12:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Good point, Usher. The BB does have +Chip EV call with a very wide range of hands. However do you think his call is +Money EV?

What's the minimum hand that would make his call correct?

What's the minimum hand that would make my push correct - it seems from people's comments that this is a clear push - is it really not even that close?

A liitle more background on the players- UTG is pretty tight (VPIP = 15%, PFR = 8%), the big stack in the SB is pretty LAG (VPIP = 43%, PFR=13%).

[/ QUOTE ]

Bah I just made a long post and lost it while previewing...

To try and recap:

As far as $EV calcs go, I can't say now as I'm not able to do any. If it's -$EV though then I've been making lots of mistakes in the past. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Is UTG=BB in your quote above? If so, you're describing most of the posters here, and they will most likely surprise you on the bubble playing completely different than the stats might suggest.

You were asking about minimums, but I can't really say that either because my guidelines are sometimes completely different than most here.

T9s does suck at a showdown but it's not very weak, even against AK so his call was very correct considering all the information you provided.

TheUsher · #9 04-21-2005, 12:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If he puts you on 22+, Ax, Kx, Q9+ then T8o is about the worst off-suit hand he can call with and still be +$EV. Your range was a little wider which makes it very slighly more +$EV to call for him.

If SB will call with [22+, A7+, KQ, KJs] and BB will call with [22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+, J9+] your push is just barely +$EV. So if they are any looser, your push will be -$EV. All by ICM, not taking other factors into account.

[/ QUOTE ]

T8os was the hand hero pushed with and T9s was the hand BB called with micro. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Also, your pushing range for hero seems way too small, but I may be off since I'm used to almost any 2 being pushed in that situation. Also, BB should be calling with more hands in that situation (IMHO).

microbet · #10 04-21-2005, 12:33 AM

You said a lot in a short post.

[ QUOTE ]
T8os was the hand hero pushed with and T9s was the hand BB called with micro. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I know. That was more or less a coincidence that hands were similar. I tried out a lot of hands for BB to call with and T8o was about the worst that made it +$EV against the range I tried. That means T9s was more +$EV.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, your pushing range for hero seems way too small, but I may be off since I'm used to almost any 2 being pushed in that situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well on the one hand, if that is true, and it may be, it is an even easier call. That would make it a worse push.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, BB should be calling with more hands in that situation (IMHO).

[/ QUOTE ]

Gonna come out a -$EV push I think.