Thanks Schneids

bunky9590 · #1 04-01-2005, 02:08 AM

My new looser more aggro self is starting to reap the rewards. My VPIP over my last 25k hands is now around 23 (up from what was 18 over my first 25k) and the profit has skyrocketed.

Heres a good example of how my LAG image got me more action than I deserved. Bunky actually slowplayed a flop [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img].

I hate it when I miss bets. I think I may have gained them by waiting till the turn though.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

River: (12.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps, BB calls.

Final Pot: 20.20 BB

Results in white below: 
Hero has 9c Jc (straight, jack high).
Button doesn't show.
BB has 7s 7h (three of a kind, sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins 20.20 BB.

imitation · #2 04-01-2005, 02:18 AM

You lost bets by slowplaying, sorry but if someone is going 4 bets on turn and river with bottom set they're going 4 on every street. I'm not usually critical of preflop plays but if you weren't open raising J9s from CO then you must seriously have doubted your postflop play. Also 25k hands is nothing you know this.

bunky9590 · #3 04-01-2005, 02:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You lost bets by slowplaying,

[/ QUOTE ]

probably , but OTOH how the hell did I know they were that strong? [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not usually critical of preflop plays but if you weren't open raising J9s from CO then you must seriously have doubted your postflop play. Also 25k hands is nothing you know this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im alot more comfortable postflop in 6 max now. like real comfortable.

My VPIP in 10-20 is 27 and PFr sits at 20.
Im getting a little more LAG now.

joseki · #4 04-01-2005, 03:08 AM

Nice hand. I definitely agree that there are many players who slow down if you go to war on the flop, so I agree with the slowplay in general. However, this player does not appear to be one of them. Do you have much history with this player?

I suspect the action you got had little to do with your image, and much to do with the strength of your opponent's hand. Your loosening up may have made a difference if you had changed from a 15/5 player to a 25/20 player, and your opponent was more astute than the average player, and he'd had a chance to get a good read on you. Then again, maybe not.

FWIW, I've also been experimenting with playing a few more hands. Too few hands to say much, but I averaged 1.2bb/100 for my first 100k SH hands with vpip/pfr of 21/12; I've played an additional 50k hands since then with a winrate of 2.31bb/100 and vpip/pfr of 23/15.

kiddo · #5 04-01-2005, 03:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
My VPIP over my last 25k hands is now around 23 (up from what was 18 over my first 25k) and the profit has skyrocketed.

[/ QUOTE ]

A really good player will make more $ on every hand, and maybe his breakeeven point is at VPIP28%, but a not so good player will probably have a much lower breakeven point because increasing your VPIP means putting yourself in a lot of tricky postflop decisions that u will have a hard time handling playing multiple tables.

So, to be honest I dont think your winning will skyrocket when you go from 18 to 23% VPIP unless u are a really good player. If it goes up 0.5BB/100, then its a lot.

25K hands is nothing, u can easily be 3BB off from real winrate.

By the way, I see nothing wrong in slowplaying this hand on flop. U got position, why shouldnt you? Normally he will not have a set but something much worse, let him bet away another BB.

J9s is autoraise for me preflop from CO. Well played.

SmileyEH · #6 04-01-2005, 03:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]

25K hands is nothing, u can easily be 3BB off from real winrate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Get out a calculater and you will see this is almost certainly wrong.

-SmileyEH

TStoneMBD · #7 04-01-2005, 04:04 AM

are you saying that you folded J9s in the CO before scheids helped you?

kiddo · #8 04-01-2005, 04:07 AM

With a standarddeviation of 17BB/100 we will find that 1 player in 20 is more then 2.2BB/100 off their true winrate after 25K. About 1/3 is more then 1.1BB off. If we meet the same players day after day and play the same style, but we dont, so swings are greater (We run into a lot of good players or LAGGY players hitting, or we play a bit worse then normal - if u play many hours every day this will happen now and then).

If u dont think someone winning 3BB/100 can be about breakeven over 25K hands u still have some nasty downswings to experience.

SmileyEH · #9 04-01-2005, 04:16 AM

I don't know how you can substitute something like [ QUOTE ]
If we meet the same players day after day and play the same style, but we dont, so swings are greater

[/ QUOTE ] to account for [ QUOTE ]
With a standarddeviation of 17BB/100 we will find that 1 player in 20 is more then 2.2BB/100 off their true winrate after 25K

[/ QUOTE ]. To be 3BB/100 off of actual winrate would be slightly less than a 3 standard deviation event, happening less than 1 in a 100.

-SmileyEH

SmileyEH · #10 04-01-2005, 04:19 AM

For a 2.8SD event (corresponding to 3BB/100 error) the probability of occuring is 1 in 200.

linky