big draws question - |ATs includes HH

[Skuzzy]

Villain is recent addition to table but already showing unusual (probably drunk) tendancies. I'm running very hot in terms of hands dealt to me and hotter still in terms of flops that I've hit. Unfortunately though, I'm down 3 buy ins on the night and a bit tilted.

The rest of the table is generally Tight and a bit passive.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($12)
UTG ($95.25)
UTG+1 ($73.80)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($54.85)</font>
MP1 ($44.50)
MP2 ($55.25)
MP3 ($40.95)
CO ($57.60)
Button ($48.25)
<font color="#C00000">SB (villain)/ ($46.80)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB (villain)/ posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB (villain)/ (poster) raises to $3.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $1.50, MP2 calls $1.50.

Flop: ($11) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">villain bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $15</font>, MP2 folds, villain calls $13.

Turn: ($41) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">villain bets $0.5</font>, Hero raises $36.35 (All-In), villain calls $27.80 (All-In).

Preflop I figured villain for a high pair tens or better (not AA or KK) or AK, AQ.
On flop I figured villain for either TT or JJ but maybe two hearts (KQ being most likely) but I was already 2nd guessing myself.



HONESTLY: At the table on the turn my approximations were he probably (50%) had me beat with an overpair he was betting weirdly, but he could have set (15%), a weaker flush draw (15%) or something dumb like two overcards (10%) even maybe nothing at all (10%). I had 9 outs to the nuts, 4 to a str8 and 2 overcards; I discounted my overcards and called it 15 outs, I got confused as hell now and just figured 15 outs is enough to push.

MY QUESTION: what should I be thinking in this type of spot? Pushing with my hand seems to get approx. 7:3 when he calls the turn. Pushing the flop gets 4:5 approx when called and there are still 2 cards to come and the larger bet should (I assume) have greater fold equity.

actually, I'm so confused I dont even know what my question is.

[ QUOTE ]
MY QUESTION: what should I be thinking in this type of spot?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm getting a cheap card to my draw, I should f***ing take it!

[Skuzzy]

Ok but....

When villain calls my turn all in I get the odds I need. If he folds I take the pot. Isnt the chance of winning it on the turn worth it? Wouldn't it be nice to fold a pair here while your holding is still in question and you're representing a strong made hand? Doesn't taking a free card make it obvious you're on a draw and give you zero chance of winning when you miss?

[gavrilo]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok but....

When villain calls my turn all in I get the odds I need. If he folds I take the pot. Isnt the chance of winning it on the turn worth it? Wouldn't it be nice to fold a pair here while your holding is still in question and you're representing a strong made hand? Doesn't taking a free card make it obvious you're on a draw and give you zero chance of winning when you miss?

[/ QUOTE ]


this logic might work better if his stack were larger. once he calls the flop, i don't think you'll get TT or JJ to fold to that safe looking turn card very often. i'd take the cheap card.

[Escotme]

Who did u say was drunk again? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Seriously, is there any more profitable play in terms of low risk, high reward than milking donkeys and/or drunks??? Bluffing them is the worst you can do as they tend to see only the Call button.

If you have a solid read on a player, why don't you follow it? I don't care how many outs you have in a situation like that. Until you've made your hand, you play it safe and take the cheap card.

Besides, with a read like that, how can you be so sure you won't get paid if you hit it??

[jjacky]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok but....

When villain calls my turn all in I get the odds I need. If he folds I take the pot. Isnt the chance of winning it on the turn worth it? Wouldn't it be nice to fold a pair here while your holding is still in question and you're representing a strong made hand? Doesn't taking a free card make it obvious you're on a draw and give you zero chance of winning when you miss?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think you have a serious misconception relative to odds. if there is a 10$ pot and you have 8 outs (about 20% winning chance), you have the correct odds to CALL 1$, you don't (neccessarily) have the correct odds to bet 1$. if you have odds to bet 1$ depends only on the chance that your opponent folds.

[jjacky]

i think the chance that the opponent folds is slim and the chance that you do have the best hand is well below 10%. i would have taken the (almost) free card. if he is drunk and you make a straight of flush on the river, you will probably get all his money anyway.

just a minor detail but you only have 14 outs, you are counting the 7h twice, once for the flush and once for the straight