Bad fold? KJs UTG vs BB low AF

[Sinnister]

Villain is loose aggressive/passive with a postflop AF of .7

And he was playing hands very cautiously postflop
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, SB folds, BB calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

[mmbt0ne]

What kind of hands would you expect him to check-raise here? If he has 2pr with a J you have 7 outs. If he has 2pr without a J, you have 12 outs.

Give us a range of hands, and I can tell you if it was a good fold [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[jrz1972]

You might consider raising this preflop. I do most of the time.

Villain could have a straight, obviously, but two pair is also a distinct possibility. If I were actually playing this hand, I'm sure I would call down, but that said I don't think the fold is totally unreasonable if you have a strong read that this guy would never check-raise the turn with less than a set, especially given the not-large pot. I just don't like folding TPGK HU unless I have a really good reason to do so.

[Sinnister]

I think maybe jt - t9 i wouldnt put 78 past him. I would think he would raise with kq but its possible, im fairly sure i was behind as every time i have seen him play aggressive only when he definatley has 2p or more. Should i have seen river knowing i was beat then fold river to a blank?? set is also very possible.

[jrz1972]

Remember that villain is in the BB, so he could have literally anything. T3 is just as possible as JT.

If you're going to call the turn check-raise, I think you're committing yourself to showing the hand down.

[aK13]

Given your read, I don't think it's that bad of a fold, since you're going to have to call a river bet also, which will probably make it about 8.5:2 to see a river, and i don't know if you're good here that often.

However, I wouldn't make this fold routinely, though, as you will frequently find players bluff-raising with nothing, and also, some of your more observant fish might start taking cheap shots at you thinking you'll fold to a check/raise on the turn, not to mention you still have a fairly strong hand.

[Sinnister]

ya that was another big factor plus his low AF i literally went thru every hand he played before and after this and i am convinced i was beat at that point. I just wondered against this kinda guy id probably only continue in a big pot

[mmbt0ne]

I'm going to give villian some hands here, so bear with me.

I'm assuming villian has a made hand only. The numbers by the hand rank is how many combinations there are of that hand. I've explained this math in posts before, but I'll do it again if I have to.

JJ - .5 (discounted for pfr possibility)
TT - 3
99 - 3
33 - 3
J3 - 9
T3 - 9
J9 - 9
JT - 9
T9 - 9
(no 93, I can't see him with that)
87 - 16
Q8 - 16
QK - 12

Doing a bunch of math, he's has ~6.32 outs and is getting 6.5:1. God, that's about as borderline as it gets because you're gonna lose an extra bet sometimes when you hit what you think is an out, but its not clean, but you'll also raise a river Q, and he will very often pay off.

Wow, this hand is pretty tough. I call the turn, fold the river UI, raise a rivered Q.

[Sinnister]

Given the range of hands he could have id raise the river with any improvement at all. Am I flawed in my thinking?

I really need to understand the concept behind your math here so i can think on the spot what to do in spots similar to this.

[mmbt0ne]

Sigh...that's what I was afraid of. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Ok, here we go. First, I counted up the possible combinations of card that villian could have based on what we already know is out. Then, you can discount if you think he would've played something a different way. I'm assuming he could equally be slowplaying a flopped hand or have improved on the turn. This is probably wrong, but its still a good approximation. I knocked JJ down from 1 to 0.5 because I figure he'll raise it preflop from time to time. Similarly, we could discount TT, but a lot of people don't raise that from the blinds.

Now, we count the outs we have against every possible holding. Here's from the document file I was working with:

JJ - 0.5 (discounted) 4
TT - 3 4
99 - 3 4
33 - 3 4
J3 - 6 13
T3 - 9 12
J9 - 6 10
JT - 9 7
T9 - 9 12
(no 93, I can't see him with that)
87 - 16 4
Q8 - 16 3
QK - 12 1.5

total hands: 92.5

The second number is how many outs we have to improve to a winning hand. KQ I give 1.5 outs because when we hit one of the 3 remaining Qs we split the pot.

Now, here is how you get the outs number:

(hand combinations/total hand combinations) x (outs)

So, for 33 it would be:

(3 combinations/92.5 total combinations) x (4 outs) = 0.1297 outs.

Do that for every combination and add them together to get your total outs. That's called a weighted EV calculation. Of course, you can't do these at the table, but when you do enough of them away from the table, and practice putting your opponent on a range of hands you slowly become better and better at approximating your outs. For instance, now I know that if I have top pair with an over-kicker and a gutshot, and I get raised by someone with a made hand, I need a little better than 6:1 to call. I'm not going to commit that to memory, but I'm going to remember when it comes up that I shouldn't be folding in, say, a 7 or 8 BB pot.