Party 10/20: KQo SB vs. CO steal

bdk3clash · #1 11-30-2005, 09:45 PM

CO in this hand seems solid and straightforward and hasn't gotten out of line from what I can tell. His stats after >2600 hands are 29.9/23.4/1.9 and he appears to steal a whole lot of the time. He's not a particularly fun opponent to be out of position against.

Comments on each street appreciated, particularly the turn and river.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: bdk3clash is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, bdk3clash 3-bets, 1 fold, CO calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
bdk3clash bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
bdk3clash bets, CO calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
bdk3clash plans on check-folding.

Catt · #2 11-30-2005, 11:47 PM

I think you give up on the river (as you planned to) or give up on the turn. I'm generally not ready to give up on the turn, so I play it as you do. Facing a CO raise from a guy with his stats who is straightforward and in-line, you beat nothing in his range other than the very occassional KT and this guy checks that behind on the river in any event.

sfer · #3 12-01-2005, 01:26 PM

In these spots, I click his name on Party and see how often he's gone to SD and how often he's folded to a river bet.

Spicymoose · #4 12-01-2005, 01:34 PM

I hate these situations, and I think I normally just check fold on the river also. I'll try to give some reasons for firing again though...

You need to win 1 in 7 times.

He probably doesn't have a J, as I think he would probably raise the flop or turn.

Similarly, he might raise an 8 or 9 somewhere, so these have to be discounted as possibilities.

I would think that in this case he usually either has a PP, 44-77, or some sort of T, with the picked up straight draw on the turn. Maybe AT, KT. Although you are beating KT, if you check you have to fold, and he might bet it to try to fold out your A. There are 24 PP he could have, but 16 AT, and 12 KT. AT definetly has to be discounted, as he might cap preflop, and might play the flop differently, but even discounted I think there are at least 10 combos. Note, there are also other possibilities of hands he could have, but considering you only have to fold out a better hand a small amount of time, you really need to come up with about 60 other possibilities of holdings (even more for the times he has KT and would bet if checked to), and I think that would be hard to do.

Spicymoose · #5 12-01-2005, 01:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
In these spots, I click his name on Party and see how often he's gone to SD and how often he's folded to a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Although I think that is an important stat, I don't think looking at this number alone can really help you. You need to think about what he might have, and out of the hands that beat you, you can weigh in his WTSD or FRB.

Arnfinn Madsen · #6 12-01-2005, 01:45 PM

He calls more often than 6 out of 7 times here. If he has called with i.e. 55 he will call the river too. Check-fold is good.

Spicymoose · #7 12-01-2005, 01:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, agree with you. He calls more often than 6 out of 7 times here. If he has called with i.e. 55 he will call the river too. Check-fold is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, I guess I wasn't to clear on my opinion in my post. I was saying that I think he has enough combos of AT or KT that will fold for us to make this bet.

Spicymoose · #8 12-01-2005, 01:59 PM

I think this type of hand is a perfect example of one that can be solved pretty easily with a bit of math, and good estimations of play. Good poker players will often know this by intuation, and can be fairly spot on in their decisions of what to do, but sometimes they are wrong.

I am not very good at hand reading, or estimating how often people might play a certain way, but I think that there are plenty of people here who can do that just fine. I have outlined how to do the math, and I think if you come up with some reasonable estimates, your answer will show you quite clearly if this is a bet or check/fold. If the math comes out showing a close decision, then your reads become ever more important, but I think most of the time, even with somewhat inacurate (but at least close) estimates, your answer will show solidly enough what the right move is.

Estimations needed:

How often will he play an underpair the way he has?
How often will he play top pair the way he has?
How often will he play AT or KT the way he has?
How often will he play any other hand the way he has (anything I may have missed)?
How often will he fold AT to our river bet?
How often will he check KT if we check?
If he has called this far with his low PP, will he ever fold to a river bet?

These estimations don't have to be perfect! If you say 25%, but the answer is really 45%, yes, it makes a difference, but often you will get the same result. If you are that unsure, make two different set of assumptions, and see if they both come up with the same result.

I think throwing out intuative guesses here, although may be helpful, are not what we should be doing when the math is pretty simple.

Arnfinn Madsen · #9 12-01-2005, 01:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, agree with you. He calls more often than 6 out of 7 times here. If he has called with i.e. 55 he will call the river too. Check-fold is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, I guess I wasn't to clear on my opinion in my post. I was saying that I think he has enough combos of AT or KT that will fold for us to make this bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Edited [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]. Will look into it more closely when I am finished multitabling to see if I am wrong.

colgin · #10 12-01-2005, 02:35 PM

I play it the same way (not necessarily a lot of comfort n that though [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]).

I think that there are a relatively few number of better hands that he might fold to one last river bet (e.g., AT, A7, etc.). However, for him to have called down thus far with these he would have been calling down with pretty weak draw which makes them less likely holdings IMO.

I think he is likely calling the river with any other kind of made hand (pocket pair, slit pair, etc.). So I think your overall bluffing equity (in light of the ratio of made hands he won't fold to weak draw hnads that beat you and that he might fold) is probably pretty low here.

I also think that he is unlikely to bluff you out of the pot with a worse hand if you check. Again, I think the number of such holdings that he could have here (e.g., KT) are pretty limited in combos given the way he played the hand and his stats. Also, it looks like you are check-calling the river against a somewhat scary board so I am not sure he is gong to take a shot against you even with missed draw when that is the hand he, in fact, has. More likely, if he bets it is for value.