Baby Pair and Baby Flush Draw - Turn decision

[molawn2mo]

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yeah chip spewery for sure...but is check/calling down and folding the river unimproved way way too weak?

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Given the poster's hyper aggressive 3 bet on the flop, a 3 bet that got no folders, it is quite reasonable to assume that he is up against at least a set and more likely a set and a larger flush draw. Flush over flush does happen.

I may be wrong, here, but the poster just seems to be the type to see his cards only, not credit his opponents with anything, devise a theory which supports his play and spew. Come to think of it is that a decent definition pf a post flop LAG?

No offense, Laggy, just my thoughts.

[bisonbison]

Ah...calls the turn and checkfolds the river unimproved.

Listen to chesspain.

[LaggyLou]

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a name I suspect has been well earned . . . No offense, Laggy

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LOL [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] No offense taken, I assure you. I appreciate your taking the time to respond to the posts. I laugh because I chose my name as a bit of an inside joke to myself because when I regged, I knew that my play was weak-tight. Perhaps I've overcorrected. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

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Given the poster's hyper aggressive 3 bet on the flop, a 3 bet that got no folders, it is quite reasonable to assume that he is up against at least a set and more likely a set and a larger flush draw.

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I see a set as very unliklely in this situation. QQ would have raised preflop. 55 is unlikely because I have a five. Thus, the only set I am worried about is 88.

By the turn, I agree that I am likely up against a larger flush draw somewhere AND that I am beat somewhere else, not by a set, but by a Q, 8 or PP. I am also worried that someone hit their OESD. But when it's checked through to the Button and he bets, then it seems to me that raising is the far superior play. If the Button is on a flush draw, then I MUST be ahead of him. If the Button has a made hand, then all of my flush outs are good AGAINST HIM (unless he has a set, and even then almost all are good). Now, if one of the other players is on a flush draw, and I raise, I think he's going to have a hard time calling unless he has the A or K. He'd be getting 6.5-1 immediately and has to be worried that (1) it might get capped again; and (2) his hand might be no good even if he hits. And I think that a lone Q, 8, or a PP pretty much has to give it up because he has to figure that he is behind -- maybe way behind -- and quite possibly drawing dead.

Obviously, if the turn raise doesn't succeed in knocking both of the guys in between out, I'm likely in big trouble and have to check-fold unimproved, and likely only check-call if I hit the flush. And if it gets three-bet by anyone other than the Button (and the button calls or raises himself) I have to give it up on the turn. But I think it unlikely that one of the in-between guys would have checked if he hit a straight because of the fear of it being checked through with lurking flush draws.

I guess what I'm asking is, why isn't this one of those "big pot" situations from SSH where you put in the extra bet to maximize your chance to win?

[butters]

That's too much of a parlay. You need to improve to win and nobody with a better hand is going anywhere if you raise. You're basically charging yourself another big bet and opening yourself up to a three-bet/cap when what you really want to do is see the river as cheaply as possible.

[stinkypete]

why would you put the button on a flush draw?

[LaggyLou]

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That's too much of a parlay.

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You may be right, but aren't these types of situations always parlays? What I mean is, aren't these bets "worth it" only IF they occasionally result in your winning a pot that you otherwise would not have won? Indeed, isn't that the reason cited by Ciaffone and Brier in discouraging them in their Middle-limit book? I guess what I still don't understand is why this isn't a "do everything you can to maximize your chances of winning" situations.

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You need to improve to win

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Not heads up against a flush draw.

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and nobody with a better hand is going anywhere if you raise.

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This can't be true. Is A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] cold-calling 2 BB here? Is even Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] cold-calling 2 BB here? Is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] cold-calling 2 here? Can you exclude these hands based on the players' actions thusfar?

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You're basically charging yourself another big bet and opening yourself up to a three-bet/cap when what you really want to do is see the river as cheaply as possible.

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Well, no. What I really want is to get it heads up, because otherwise I am likely drawing to at best five outs. To me, my situation right now (i.e., on the turn) is that against four players I likely have neither the best hand nor the best draw, but if I can get it heads up then I have EITHER the best hand OR the best draw. Isn't that worth an extra BB's risk in this size pot?

Obviously, this hand has me confused!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I don't mean to be argumentative; I am honestly just trying to understand where I am going wrong in my thinking (pot not big enough here, maybe??)

[LaggyLou]

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why would you put the button on a flush draw?

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I see that as a likely holding given that raising and capping three opponents on the flop would be correct with a flush draw, and he did not raise preflop (so he likely does not have a set of Qs or AQ). He could also have a made hand, in which case my flush outs are good. Hence my desire to get it heads up.