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#12
12-07-2005, 12:57 PM
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Re: It worked, but too agg???
...grunch...
I like the flop raise I even like the turn raise, but I dont like the turn cap. Unless he's gone crazy with 8x, you simply need to improve to win. And just hitting a K or Q is probably not enough. By capping you've said you have a huge hand already. So if he has something that will be crushed by a straight or flush, you're not getting more than 1 bet out of him on the river. If you miss, chances are you lose. Assume you win with a straight or flush, but loose with anything else. Also assume you will fold the river if you dont hit a straight or a flush. 12 outs. You'll hit 26% of the time. (*I'm not discounting the board pairing for simplicity) With capping, worst case scenario is that he slows down when you miss. So you lose 1 BB 74% of the time, and make 2 BB 26% of the time. If you dont cap, then 74% of the time you lose 0 BB, and 26% of the time you make 2 BB when he bets and you raise. Buy it? 
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#13
12-07-2005, 01:33 PM
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Re: It worked, but too agg???
[ QUOTE ]
...grunch... I like the flop raise I even like the turn raise, but I dont like the turn cap. Unless he's gone crazy with 8x, you simply need to improve to win. And just hitting a K or Q is probably not enough. By capping you've said you have a huge hand already. So if he has something that will be crushed by a straight or flush, you're not getting more than 1 bet out of him on the river. If you miss, chances are you lose. Assume you win with a straight or flush, but loose with anything else. Also assume you will fold the river if you dont hit a straight or a flush. 12 outs. You'll hit 26% of the time. (*I'm not discounting the board pairing for simplicity) With capping, worst case scenario is that he slows down when you miss. So you lose 1 BB 74% of the time, and make 2 BB 26% of the time. If you dont cap, then 74% of the time you lose 0 BB, and 26% of the time you make 2 BB when he bets and you raise. Buy it? [/ QUOTE ] So, basically buy just calling RR then I am getting 2 bets on the river if i hit my hand.... I see. Well, he did cap the river cause he had Trip As. Also, I am knowing that My K or Q is not good after the turn card. Now lets change this, lets say the turn was the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] giving me Open ended and flush draw, is my raise justified then on the turn for everyone who said I should just call?
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#14
12-07-2005, 01:45 PM
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Re: It worked, but too agg???
do the math. if he has top pair, no. plug the hand into pokerstove and look at your equity. then realize that even if you are 51% here (you're not, but if you were) you gain less by raising when you're drawing and then getting one bet on the river than calling when you're drawing and getting two bets on the river.
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#15
12-07-2005, 01:45 PM
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Re: It worked, but too agg???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ...grunch... I like the flop raise I even like the turn raise, but I dont like the turn cap. Unless he's gone crazy with 8x, you simply need to improve to win. And just hitting a K or Q is probably not enough. By capping you've said you have a huge hand already. So if he has something that will be crushed by a straight or flush, you're not getting more than 1 bet out of him on the river. If you miss, chances are you lose. Assume you win with a straight or flush, but loose with anything else. Also assume you will fold the river if you dont hit a straight or a flush. 12 outs. You'll hit 26% of the time. (*I'm not discounting the board pairing for simplicity) With capping, worst case scenario is that he slows down when you miss. So you lose 1 BB 74% of the time, and make 2 BB 26% of the time. If you dont cap, then 74% of the time you lose 0 BB, and 26% of the time you make 2 BB when he bets and you raise. Buy it? [/ QUOTE ] So, basically buy just calling RR then I am getting 2 bets on the river if i hit my hand.... I see. Well, he did cap the river cause he had Trip As. Also, I am knowing that My K or Q is not good after the turn card. Now lets change this, lets say the turn was the J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] giving me Open ended and flush draw, is my raise justified then on the turn for everyone who said I should just call? [/ QUOTE ] It would depend on how clean your overcards wer but probably not. Flush outs 9, non flush straight outs 6, discount your overcards to 3 outs instead of 6 for 18 total outs. 18 outs with one card to come would put your equity at 39% still not enough to raise the turn heads up even though you have a monster draw.
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#18
12-07-2005, 01:52 PM
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Re: It worked, but too agg???
[ QUOTE ]
Unless you're feeling really weak because your aggression factor is starting to slip below 10, this is a silly turn raise and a ludicrous cap. [/ QUOTE ] i think flop raise to call is fairly ev neutral, depending on players.
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#19
12-07-2005, 01:58 PM
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Re: It worked, but too agg???
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Unless you're feeling really weak because your aggression factor is starting to slip below 10, this is a silly turn raise and a ludicrous cap. [/ QUOTE ] i think flop raise to call is fairly ev neutral, depending on players. [/ QUOTE ]
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#20
12-07-2005, 02:00 PM
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Re: It worked, but too agg???
[ QUOTE ]
Ummm, a turn Jack gives you a made hand, the str8. So yes, raise that turn in that case. [/ QUOTE ] Daaaaaaaaaam What i wanted to discuss is if the Turn gives me an Openended st8, flush draw and 2 overcards...sorry.
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