is this good or very not good? (aka very very not good)

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
i think in the long run this is -ev.

all you have on him is stats which say nothing about how he treats a turn C/R. you might push him off A high here sometimes but if he's got this far he will most likely see the river.

i just check/call turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't your outs pretty tainted for check-calling here? Not to mention that you're only getting 6.5:1..

[bobbyi]

I don't like it. With a board of 79TX, any card 7 or higher either pairs the board, creates nice straight possiblities (8 & J) or is an overcard. This means that, even ignoring his betting actions, there are few playable hands that don't mesh with this board. Even if he holds one (e.g., A5s), it could potentially be suited in spades, especially since none of the big spades are accounted for. If we add to that what his betting says about his hand, I think you are almost never buying the pot on the turn, and very rarely taking it with a followhthrough bet on the river.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think in the long run this is -ev.

all you have on him is stats which say nothing about how he treats a turn C/R. you might push him off A high here sometimes but if he's got this far he will most likely see the river.

i just check/call turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't your outs pretty tainted for check-calling here? Not to mention that you're only getting 6.5:1..

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would your outs be tainted?

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]

Aren't your outs pretty tainted for check-calling here? Not to mention that you're only getting 6.5:1..

[/ QUOTE ]

If all our outs are clean, we only need 3.6:1 pot odds(ignoring implied odds). I think we have about 8 outs here(38:8), so the pot is more than big enough to justify calling another bet.

[NLSoldier]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Aren't your outs pretty tainted for check-calling here? Not to mention that you're only getting 6.5:1..

[/ QUOTE ]

If all our outs are clean, we only need 3.6:1 pot odds(ignoring implied odds). I think we have about 8 outs here(38:8), so the pot is more than big enough to justify calling another bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should just stop posting since you always say what I was going to say better than I would have said it [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[maxpowers21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Aren't your outs pretty tainted for check-calling here? Not to mention that you're only getting 6.5:1..

[/ QUOTE ]

If all our outs are clean, we only need 3.6:1 pot odds(ignoring implied odds). I think we have about 8 outs here(38:8), so the pot is more than big enough to justify calling another bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Finally. Good post. I might consider folding the turn, if he capped me preflop.

Don't forget that half of your clean outs, 4 outs to the nuts will definately yield some implied odds here.

I see that the vast majority of the time you'll have 7 clean outs here, even if he has you reverse dominated or dominated with pretty much any hand. I can't put villian on an overpair here or a set so i make a super easy call.

[Alobar]

I dont like. Whatever he has to raise you on the flop with, he is going to call the turn raise with. So for this to work, you have to bet the river. And thats a lot of chips to spew against someone you have nothing on but a measly 30 hand PT stat read.
long run, I see it being -EV

Just call the turn

[decigam]

Good post, I have a question though.

if you hit your K or Q on the river is it a ckeck/call, bet/call raise or some other play?

Thanks, I feel I have trouble on rivers where my hand might be dominated (assuming button has a possible AQ or AK).

[billyjex]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think in the long run this is -ev.

all you have on him is stats which say nothing about how he treats a turn C/R. you might push him off A high here sometimes but if he's got this far he will most likely see the river.

i just check/call turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aren't your outs pretty tainted for check-calling here? Not to mention that you're only getting 6.5:1..

[/ QUOTE ]

Jeff said it best, but I'd also like to add that we might get a free showdown here and win with KQ high -- villian could be pushing QJ or KJ like this and would check the river through after we call the turn.

[stinkypete]

if you have a read on him folding too much i like it. against a calling station like me it's chipspewing.