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#1
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
On first glance, I thought leading out had the greater upside, but I think I was wrong there. Checking definately has greater variance here, but it seems like the few times that bb has a straight or a worse flush we net a few more bb on the river. It's crazy risky though, because either weaktighty could check the river through with her pair, or 80 vpip guy could have better diamonds than us.
some assumptions here: 1)if bb is going to call, he'll not care where the bet came from, as he's not trying to read any hands. He's also willing to call one bet at a time, but not as willing to call two bets at once. 2)if bb has a flush or straight, he'll be on a checkraise here. 3)if bb missed his draw, he's check/folding here regardless 4)when button bet the turn, she signified that she liked her hand and wanted to show down. (we'll put her on a paired ace for now) 5)button will call a bet, but may ocasinally check through the river with a pair out of fear of being raised. 6)for now, lets assume you'll not push it to three bets on the river. I don't know if you would or not, but I'll make that assumption for now. since bb is the deciding factor here, lets first look at a hand he's check/folding. a)sb check, bb check, button bet, sb raise, bb fold, button call(+2bb) c)sb check, bb check, button bet, sb call, bb fold (+1bb) b)sb check, bb check, button check (ugh) now we'll put him on a check/call with a pair. a)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb raise, bb fold, button call (+2bb) b)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb calls, bb calls (+2 bb) c)sb check, bb check, button check. (ouch) now lets have him checkraising a straight or a flush that we may or may not beat. a)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb raises, bb reraises, button folds, sb calls (+4bb or -3bb) b)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb calls, bb raises, button calls, sb calls (+4bb or -2bb) c)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb raises, bb calls, button calls (+4bb or -2bb) d)sb check, bb check, button check (yup, zero) -------- so instead of checking, lets go through these and bet out instead. ------- bb is checkfolding a whiffed draw here. a)sb bet, bb fold, button call (+1bb) now bb is calling a pair a)sb bet, bb call, button call (+2bb) now he's got a flush or a straight a)sb bet, bb raise, button fold, sb call (+2bb or -2bb) b)sb bet, bb raise, button call, sb call (+4bb or -2bb) In all of these I assumed that the button wasnt going to raise, and that she'd occasionally check through. betting will surely win you money here, but checking is fun if you like to take risks. |
#2
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
[ QUOTE ]
On first glance, I thought leading out had the greater upside, but I think I was wrong there. Checking definately has greater variance here, but it seems like the few times that bb has a straight or a worse flush we net a few more bb on the river. It's crazy risky though, because either weaktighty could check the river through with her pair, or 80 vpip guy could have better diamonds than us. some assumptions here: 1)if bb is going to call, he'll not care where the bet came from, as he's not trying to read any hands. He's also willing to call one bet at a time, but not as willing to call two bets at once. 2)if bb has a flush or straight, he'll be on a checkraise here. 3)if bb missed his draw, he's check/folding here regardless 4)when button bet the turn, she signified that she liked her hand and wanted to show down. (we'll put her on a paired ace for now) 5)button will call a bet, but may ocasinally check through the river with a pair out of fear of being raised. 6)for now, lets assume you'll not push it to three bets on the river. I don't know if you would or not, but I'll make that assumption for now. since bb is the deciding factor here, lets first look at a hand he's check/folding. a)sb check, bb check, button bet, sb raise, bb fold, button call(+2bb) c)sb check, bb check, button bet, sb call, bb fold (+1bb) b)sb check, bb check, button check (ugh) now we'll put him on a check/call with a pair. a)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb raise, bb fold, button call (+2bb) b)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb calls, bb calls (+2 bb) c)sb check, bb check, button check. (ouch) now lets have him checkraising a straight or a flush that we may or may not beat. a)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb raises, bb reraises, button folds, sb calls (+4bb or -3bb) b)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb calls, bb raises, button calls, sb calls (+4bb or -2bb) c)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb raises, bb calls, button calls (+4bb or -2bb) d)sb check, bb check, button check (yup, zero) -------- so instead of checking, lets go through these and bet out instead. ------- bb is checkfolding a whiffed draw here. a)sb bet, bb fold, button call (+1bb) now bb is calling a pair a)sb bet, bb call, button call (+2bb) now he's got a flush or a straight a)sb bet, bb raise, button fold, sb call (+2bb or -2bb) b)sb bet, bb raise, button call, sb call (+4bb or -2bb) In all of these I assumed that the button wasnt going to raise, and that she'd occasionally check through. betting will surely win you money here, but checking is fun if you like to take risks. [/ QUOTE ] Why would you assume the BB has anything, he's just check called the whole way. If you check this river, the button is going to check a lone ace always, and maybe even two ratty pair because they dont' have the nuts. And when you check, and they check behind, they will be patting themselves on the back for another expert read because they 'knew' you had it. Just bet, because no one else will. |
#3
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
Gotta bet it. I play live only and I cannot count the number times weak tights will check around when the third of a suit drops on the river. The weak tighties fear a checkraise. And if they think AT ALL about your betting pattern, it screams flush draw because you checked the turn. And, odds are that only one player will call, just to be sure you have the flush. The others will fold to your flush bet.
As for using your reads, I would strongly consider betting the turn as a cover for your flush draw and because your tighties are very unlikely to raise you. You wind up putting in exactly the same amount of money when you call someone else's bet as when you bet out if there is not raise. Even if you get raised, your implied odds on the flush draw aren't that bad if everyone calls the raise. But on what you described, I do not see Ms. Tightie raising you with just an Ace pair and a good kicker. You could be betting two pair or a set and she does not have the nuts so she will not be likely to raise you back. Therefore, it costs you nothing to bet the turn and positions you to get more value on your river bet because now your river bet does not scream I HIT MY FLUSH DRAW. You'll get more action on the river if you bet this turn. |
#4
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
You're right - I like your insight on the turn bet. I don't know why, but even at tighter tables (2/4, 3/6, or 4/8 live) turns never get raised unless someone hit 2 pair or higher.
Anyway here are the results: I bet, BB folds, Button folds. Weak tightie said she had AK and I believe her. WTF she didn't pay me off I don't know why! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I show her the flush, she said she was *thinking* about raising (edit: preflop) with AK (on the button, jesus!) There is a slim chance that a check raise would have netted me 1BB from the button. Oh well. Should have bet the turn to disguise the draw. [ QUOTE ] Gotta bet it. I play live only and I cannot count the number times weak tights will check around when the third of a suit drops on the river. The weak tighties fear a checkraise. And if they think AT ALL about your betting pattern, it screams flush draw because you checked the turn. And, odds are that only one player will call, just to be sure you have the flush. The others will fold to your flush bet. As for using your reads, I would strongly consider betting the turn as a cover for your flush draw and because your tighties are very unlikely to raise you. You wind up putting in exactly the same amount of money when you call someone else's bet as when you bet out if there is not raise. Even if you get raised, your implied odds on the flush draw aren't that bad if everyone calls the raise. But on what you described, I do not see Ms. Tightie raising you with just an Ace pair and a good kicker. You could be betting two pair or a set and she does not have the nuts so she will not be likely to raise you back. Therefore, it costs you nothing to bet the turn and positions you to get more value on your river bet because now your river bet does not scream I HIT MY FLUSH DRAW. You'll get more action on the river if you bet this turn. [/ QUOTE ] |
#5
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
what a crazy result.
I think I disagree with betting the turn though. if bb will check through the turn (and since she freakin folded the river I'm guessing that's a distinct possibility), then we probably should to go for the free card. consider this - which is a bigger mistake for button to make? a)not raising the turn b)not betting the turn The answer is clearly B, since she's ahead and allowing us to draw for free to beat her. The problem with leading the turn is that we don't give her the opportunity to make that mistake. I guess the real question is - if she makes mistake A 85% of the time here, and makes mistake B 15%, is it worth the bet that denies her the opportunity to make mistake B in order to "disguise our hand"? I don't think so. we're not trying to outsmart her. We're trying to rob her. ... and how much of a hand reader is she anyway? is it really worth passing on the chance at a free card when we're drawing and she's got top pair? |
#6
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
mistake a = mistake b.
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#7
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
[ QUOTE ]
mistake a = mistake b. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree. Mistake A implies passivity, but does not offer a free card. whether our hero makes the bet or calls it, the price remains the same. Mistake B offers infinitely better odds than mistake A for drawing hands to catch and take the lead. |
#8
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
You can disagree for reasons other than expectation. But from an expectation standpoint the mistakes are exactly equivalent. And that's all that really matters.
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#9
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Re: Live Game - Incorporating reads
Sweet analysis Guru! Thanks. We should, however, highly discount BB's C/R because its unlikely he hit anything in usually.
[ QUOTE ] On first glance, I thought leading out had the greater upside, but I think I was wrong there. Checking definately has greater variance here, but it seems like the few times that bb has a straight or a worse flush we net a few more bb on the river. It's crazy risky though, because either weaktighty could check the river through with her pair, or 80 vpip guy could have better diamonds than us. some assumptions here: 1)if bb is going to call, he'll not care where the bet came from, as he's not trying to read any hands. He's also willing to call one bet at a time, but not as willing to call two bets at once. 2)if bb has a flush or straight, he'll be on a checkraise here. 3)if bb missed his draw, he's check/folding here regardless 4)when button bet the turn, she signified that she liked her hand and wanted to show down. (we'll put her on a paired ace for now) 5)button will call a bet, but may ocasinally check through the river with a pair out of fear of being raised. 6)for now, lets assume you'll not push it to three bets on the river. I don't know if you would or not, but I'll make that assumption for now. since bb is the deciding factor here, lets first look at a hand he's check/folding. a)sb check, bb check, button bet, sb raise, bb fold, button call(+2bb) c)sb check, bb check, button bet, sb call, bb fold (+1bb) b)sb check, bb check, button check (ugh) now we'll put him on a check/call with a pair. a)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb raise, bb fold, button call (+2bb) b)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb calls, bb calls (+2 bb) c)sb check, bb check, button check. (ouch) now lets have him checkraising a straight or a flush that we may or may not beat. a)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb raises, bb reraises, button folds, sb calls (+4bb or -3bb) b)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb calls, bb raises, button calls, sb calls (+4bb or -2bb) c)sb check, bb check, button bets, sb raises, bb calls, button calls (+4bb or -2bb) d)sb check, bb check, button check (yup, zero) -------- so instead of checking, lets go through these and bet out instead. ------- bb is checkfolding a whiffed draw here. a)sb bet, bb fold, button call (+1bb) now bb is calling a pair a)sb bet, bb call, button call (+2bb) now he's got a flush or a straight a)sb bet, bb raise, button fold, sb call (+2bb or -2bb) b)sb bet, bb raise, button call, sb call (+4bb or -2bb) In all of these I assumed that the button wasnt going to raise, and that she'd occasionally check through. betting will surely win you money here, but checking is fun if you like to take risks. [/ QUOTE ] |
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