Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > General Gambling > Probability
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 07-03-2005, 08:19 PM
Runn233 Runn233 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4
Default odds on floping a set in hold\'em

Can someone please explain why the books say the odds of flopping a set in hold'em are about 7 to 1 even though mathematically it is about 23 to 1 (47/2=23.5)? thank you. <font color="black"> </font>
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 07-03-2005, 08:47 PM
uuDevil uuDevil is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Remembering P. Tillman
Posts: 246
Default Re: odds on floping a set in hold\'em

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone please explain why the books say the odds of flopping a set in hold'em are about 7 to 1 even though mathematically it is about 23 to 1 (47/2=23.5)? thank you. <font color="black"> </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see where the 47/2 comes from. If you hold 77, odds of flopping a set:

(# Flops w/ one 7 but not FH)/(Total # flops)= 2112/19600= .107755 or 1/9.28030 or odds of ~8.3:1.

Most books show the odds of flopping a set or better. Not counting the times the you make a full house when flop comes 3 of the same rank:

((# Flops w/ one 7) + (# flops w/ 2 7's))/(Total # flops)= (2256+48)/19600= .117551 or 1/8.50694 or odds of ~7.5:1.

Another way: P(set or better)=1-P(no 7 on flop)=1-(48/50)(47/49)(46/48)= 0.117551, as above.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 07-03-2005, 11:11 PM
Runn233 Runn233 is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4
Default Re: odds on floping a set in hold\'em

thank you. I think I said it wrong. I went back to the book and saw that it said hitting a set after the flop not before the flop. I'm sorry i confused you.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:20 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.