More post-defense

[Aaron W.]

No reads on anybody. What's your next move? What about the move after that?

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (7 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero...

[Firefly]

I'd fold. You got to see a cheap flop...but it's nothing much to write home about. If one of those 2's was a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] I could see a call. KTs is a thoughoughly dominated hand, you could have 6 outs or 3 outs and were not exactly sure which ones we want to hit. So, i think we should fold.

[gharp]

Getting 8:1 with two overcards I think I'd like to continue. So I think raising to drive out the SB and get it heads up with the thief is a good idea.

The great thing about this board is that you can be pretty sure the thief doesn't have a 2 (he raised preflop), but he can't be so sure about you (you were posting blind). I think it's likely that if he calls and checks the turn, you might take it down with a bet.

If he 3-bets you on the flop, you've got a problem. Against an unknown I'd probably call and fold the turn UI.

[chopchoi]

[ QUOTE ]
Getting 8:1 with two overcards I think I'd like to continue. So I think raising to drive out the SB and get it heads up with the thief is a good idea.



[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is you're getting 8:1 to call, but only 5 to 1 if you raise, SB folds, and BB calls. You've got about a 1 in 7 chance of improving on the turn, and even if you improve, you don't know if your hand is any good. Plus the fact that MP2 might 3-bet and really screw up your odds.

However, there are some other advantages to raising as well. If you raise, SB folds, MP2 calls, you miss the turn and MP2 checks, you might be able to pick up the pot right there with a bet. Then again, this could end up costing you even more money if he decides to call you down. You could also see a free river.

I don't know, folding and raising both have their merits. If MP2 is the type who will fold AQ to a bet on the turn if he misses, I MIGHT be inclined to raise here. If I think he will call me down, I fold.

All in all, I think I fold 85% of the time, and raise 15%.

[gharp]

This is a good point, as are the ones about KTs being prone to domination. I still like our chances of taking it down here or on the turn on this somewhat scary board. It's definitely dependent on the person you're up against, as you mentioned. Against someone who's just going to call you down with any A, I can see letting it go. I think we can all agree that calling is probably the worst option.

I tend to defend my blinds aggressively (maybe too much), so take it with a grain of salt.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Getting 8:1 with two overcards I think I'd like to continue. So I think raising to drive out the SB and get it heads up with the thief is a good idea.



[/ QUOTE ]

The problem here is you're getting 8:1 to call, but only 5 to 1 if you raise, SB folds, and BB calls. You've got about a 1 in 7 chance of improving on the turn, and even if you improve, you don't know if your hand is any good. Plus the fact that MP2 might 3-bet and really screw up your odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not the way you should be looking at this. It's 1 SB to call plus 1 or 2 SB to drive out the small blind. The question is whether it's worth 11-22% of the pot to get this thing heads up (plus whatever other benefits there are with a raise).

[istewart]

While his opening range is pretty wide, there's still a very good chance not all 6 of your overcard outs are good. You can probably fold, but I think it's close. If you had a backdoor flush draw I would continue.

[AmarilloJim1]

IMO...you have to fold..your overcards don't count as full outs...

[Isura]

Really easy fold.

[Aaron W.]

Put villain on a specific (albeit broad) range of hands when he open-raises in MP2 against a poster.