once the cards are shuffled, arent the odds just the same

[YouGotBluffed]

[ QUOTE ]
You are absolutely right. Once you have the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], for the next game it's exactly 1 in 52. Only if you want to know the probability of getting it two times in a row, without knowing what will happen the first time, than you have to calculate 52 x 52 = 2704.
All speculations about so-called "emperical probabilities" are nothing but wishful thinking, otherwise all casinos would have already gone bancrupt!

[/ QUOTE ]

Whoops, you are right. I added them instead of multiplying (52+52=104 whereas 52x52=2704)

Thus 1/2704=.0003, which means you'd have to take a card from the deck and reshuffle after each time 3 million times before you'd pull out one twice in a row. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Terry]

Almost there. What are the odds? Not the probability [percent of times it will happen] – what are the odds?

[emp1346]

[ QUOTE ]
Almost there. What are the odds? Not the probability [percent of times it will happen] – what are the odds?

[/ QUOTE ]

what are the odds that no matter what anyone responds there'll be someone who doesn't agree? hmmm....

[YouGotBluffed]

[ QUOTE ]
Almost there. What are the odds? Not the probability [percent of times it will happen] – what are the odds?

[/ QUOTE ]
Oh, well 1 outta 3 million. I don't see what the difference is though, I just worded it differently.

[Terry]

It’s not 3,000,000 to 1 ... not even close ... that is why the terminology is important in understanding the concept.

[mostsmooth]

im an idiot, but im going with 2703 to 1. (the 2703 based on the other persons math work, im not going to check it)

[YouGotBluffed]

[ QUOTE ]
It’s not 3,000,000 to 1 ... not even close ... that is why the terminology is important in understanding the concept.

[/ QUOTE ]
How is it not? I think you're misunderstanding. The words proability and odds are interchangable, at least for this situation.


"The odds of pulling the same card from the deck twice in a row is three million to one" means the same as "The proability of pulling the same card from the deck twice in a row is three million to one."


Or, like I already said, you'd have to pull out a card three million times before you pulled the same card out twice in a row.

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
if i shuffle the deck, and take the top card, say its A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], the odds of that happening are 1 in 52.. i shuffle again, the odds of getting the A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are again 1 in 52, am i correct in this thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

The probability that you get the Ace spades is 1 in 52, or 1.92%

The odds that you get the Ace spades is 1 to 51 against.

These are different.

[Terry]

So regarding our question:

The odds are 2703 to 1 against. (52*52)-1

The probability (or chance) it will happen is 0.000369822 or 0.0369822%. (1/(52*52))

These both mean the same thing but stating it as odds appears to make the answer clearer in this case.

[Raydain]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
absolutely correct

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

thread should have ended here