#1
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Having trouble coming to terms with Pokermods.com\'s odds tables.
as you may or may not know, pokermods has a party/skins mod that has an overlay of odds. i don't know how to put up a picture, but here are the odds displayed:
OUTS ODDS 1 45:1 2.2% 2 22:1 4.5% 3 14.3:1 7.0% 4 10.5:1 9.5% 5 8.2:1 12.2% 6 6.7:1 14.9% 7 5.6:1 17.9% 8 4.8:1 20.8% 9 4.1:1 24.4% 10 3.6:1 27.7% 11 3.2:1 31.3% 12 2.8:1 35.7% 13 2.5:1 40% 14 2.2:1 45.5% 15 2.1:1 47.6% 16 1.9:1 52.6% 17 1.7:1 58.8% 18 1.6:1 62.5% ok, my problem is that, say with 15 outs, and 1 card to come (i assume these odds tables are calculated with one card to come), the odds against catching one of your outs is 2.1:1. this means that for every 2.1 times you miss, you catch it once. or, roughly, that you will catch 1/3 of the time. so, where do they come up with a percentage of 47.6%? thanks for any input! |
#2
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Re: Having trouble coming to terms with Pokermods.com\'s odds tables.
I quicky looked over it, and it seems that all of the odds are right, but the percatnages are wrong. For instance with 15 outs it say the odds are 2.2-1, which is right. However instead of doing 1/3.2 to calculate the percantage, they did 1/2.2.
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#3
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Re: Having trouble coming to terms with Pokermods.com\'s odds tables.
interesting how they did that.
the % for 18 outs should be 18/46, but it isn't in this chart, it's 18/28.8 - which is not even close. (28.8 is 18*1.6, just like KJL showed). |
#4
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Re: Having trouble coming to terms with Pokermods.com\'s odds tables.
Thinking about it, they are reporting the correct number, though I think in truth the percentage is confusing.
Odds are defined as the P/1-P where P is the probability of the event happening. So, for example, if you have 18 outs, you have 18/46 chance of success, and 28/46 chance of failure. The odds are 18/28, which can be expressed as a percentage, but that is confusing because it turns out that the number can be greater than 1. |
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