100+9, victim of stop-n-go, call?

[jaym96822]

***** Hand History for Game 2182980673 *****
NL Hold'em $100 Buy-in + $9 Entry Fee Trny:12958835 Level:4 Blinds(50/100) - Thursday, June 09, 23:11:04 EDT 2005
Table Table 11043 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: PokerdogCash ( $655 )
Seat 3: absolutj99 ( $1140 )
Seat 7: Jaym96822c ( $2005 )
Seat 8: ZIDPOKER ( $3045 )
Seat 9: prophet_mkr ( $1635 )
Seat 10: OUSoomer ( $1520 )
Trny:12958835 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Jaym96822c [ 9s 9d ]
absolutj99 folds.
>You have options at Table 11204 Table!.
Jaym96822c raises [250].
ZIDPOKER folds.
>You have options at Table 11204 Table!.
prophet_mkr folds.
OUSoomer folds.
>You have options at Table 11204 Table!.
PokerdogCash calls [150].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, Ac, Qc ]
PokerdogCash is all-In [405]

[Karak567]

I probably fold, but that might be the wrong move, so ignore me! :-P

[schwza]

i'd fold.

that said, it seems like the time that 2+2 advocates a s-n-go is almost always with a small/medium pocket pair, which would indicate this should be a call. the problem is that if he doesn't have a pocket pair, you're going to be a 92-8 dog or a smallish favorite (2 overs + gut shot at least).

[PokerCat69]

I don't like a stop-n-go here. You make a raise preflop and get called by someone with face cards. The flop misses them and they fold to a push, but when it hits them, they'll call a push. You gain your raise t250 3/4 of the time, and lose your stack a 1/3 of the time when they hit.

[jcm4ccc]

He called a large raise that represented almost 50% of his stack (rather than reraising you all-in) and pushed on the flop. Would he call such a large raise if he didn't intend to take this to the river, no matter what the flop showed? Would he push on the flop if it hit his hand and he thought he could double up? I don't think so. I think you were the victim of a well-played stop and go.

[kamrann]

As a direct result of the criteria which make a situation a good place for a stop and go, you should almost always follow through and push even if you do hit your hand (the size of the pot and your remaining stack should be such that you generally don't want to be called anyway). Only if you really hit massively with very little chance of being outdrawn should you check. Given this, I don't think you can be that confident he's missed, assuming he is using the stop and go sensibly. The bottom line is, even if he is stop and go'ing, he still has two cards and could easily have hit that board.

Having said all that, given the pot odds its pretty close. I'd probably fold it.

[curtains]

This hand is a good demonstration of the power the stop+go sometimes has.

[jimotto]

Would you have called a push preflop? If so (and I would have) I think I call this without thinking about it too much. 1400 is the same as 1800, as I'll be in all in mode next orbit, but 2600 gives some wiggle room. I doubt he had an ace, might have had a queen, probably has clubs.

[microbet]

You're betting 405 to win 1050.

There's a decent chance he was doing a Stop-n-go intentionally and would bet any flop.

There's a decent chance he hit a draw and is semi-bluffing.

I think the average player doesn't push when he hits the flop.

I wouldn't take even money on it, but you aren't just getting even money.

When I raised preflop into the shortstack on the BB, I was pretty much committed to playing for all his chips.

[jaym96822]

I noticed a lot of people said fold. Here's my analysis, feel free to criticize or correct:

I called this and would probably call almost every time at the 109s. My pre-flop raise accomplished the goal (other than stealing the blinds which would be the primary goal) of isolating the short stack BB and the stack sizes commit both of us to play for all his chips. I would obviously have called a pre-flop all-in re-raise from the BB, so I don't think I can fold to a push on the flop (unless it was like AKQ same suit). I can't fold everytime an overcard flops and without reads I have to assume villian is utilizing a stop-n-go.