what i learned today by elysium

[elysium]

10-20 solid/ aggressive game. i have JJ on the button. UTG raises in. he's a very profittable opponent to have in the game. i don't like calling someone a fish. anyway, the PO raises in, and he's reraised by a solid aggressive in the UTG+1, a couple of cold-calls to me, and i call, blinds fold.

the flop) 884r the UTG checks to the UTG+1 who bets. it's folded to me and i raise. and this is where i begin to learn a lesson i will never forget. the UTG 3-bets it. i now know that he has trip 8's. he wouldn't know what to do with an over-pair and would only 3-bet into two dangerous opponents with trips. well, the solid aggressive caps it. this tells me my initial read of AKs or AQs is wrong. i know that he has AA or KK now, or perhaps QQ.

it's 2 cold to me now. i didn't really know what to do. the implied odds that the aggressive action was multiplying wasn't getting through my thick skull. i was thinking in terms of facing a cold-call and the chances that my hand was in the lead, which i knew it wasn't. and i folded.

rather than hang around on the turn to see what happened, i got up to get a soda. as i was waiting for the waitress to serve me, it dawned on me that i made a terrible fold. the reason the fold was so terrible was initially the very reason i folded. the aggressive raising and reraising would have continued on the turn. had i spiked the 2 outer, my hand would have been totally concealed and the implied odds would have worked out to 23-1 to 25-1 and more! i was getting better implied odds than if it were only one small bet to me and i called. why? because if it were only one small bet to me, the future action would have been in doubt. they may have folded on the turn or check-called etc. what does this mean?

what i think this means is that it is almost never correct to fold your over-pair on the flop when you know that you're up against trips in a 3-way or better. the odds you're getting on the spike are always correct.

what i'm not sure about:
the questionable area of this thinking is that even if you spike a boat with your over-pair, it is not unbeatable. there could be as many as 4 cards in the deck that will give your opponent a bigger boat even if you spike yours on the turn. and of course you could be up against quads already, or your opponent could improve to quads. and finally, there is andy fox who says that the rails are crowded with players who call 2 cold hoping to draw out. so, there is some possibility of not being in the lead even if you spike, and of your opponent hitting a bigger boat on the river. do these factors matter? or are the slim chances that your spiked boat won't hold up too remote to consider? i'd say 19 out of 20 times your boat will hold up. anyway, i will say it again; it is never correct to fold your over-pair on the flop in a 3-way when you know that you're against trips on a paired board even if you must call 2 cold. agree or disagree? i would like to hear your opinions.

[mike l.]

it's close but i think it's a fold. you can only count on something like 3 bets on average going in per street not counting your own and that's optimistic. youre getting 12.5 to 1 on your flop call. i think preflop 3 bettor may wise up by the river and realise he's up against trips and stop raising meaning less bets go in. it's a fold elysium.

well stated post btw. more useful now that we can understand what youre saying, but we miss the old more confusing you.

[elysium]

hi mike
thanks for the response. i feel better now because i didn't of course hide my eyes from the turn card like i said i did. and when the raisers went at one another like a couple ol' ladies when a totally meaningless J hit on the turn, i didn't almost cry, i had to locate the waitress for a handkerchief. and i had to go back and face a run of the worst cards ever dealt in history. i spent the rest of the night folding, and folding, and folding. i think i hit the dealers knuckle real good once. that was a little victory.

[SoBeDude]

rather than hang around on the turn to see what happened, i got up to get a soda. as i was waiting for the waitress to serve me, it dawned on me that i made a terrible fold. the reason the fold was so terrible was initially the very reason i folded. the aggressive raising and reraising would have continued on the turn. had i spiked the 2 outer, my hand would have been totally concealed and the implied odds would have worked out to 23-1 to 25-1 and more! i was getting better implied odds than if it were only one small bet to me and i called. why? because if it were only one small bet to me, the future action would have been in doubt. they may have folded on the turn or check-called etc. what does this mean?

Hi elysium,

You can't assume your implied odds are that strong. If you spike a jack on the turn, and raise UTG's turn bet, they're both going to instantly turn and look at you...the guy they haven't been worried about. They'll realize if you stayed through the earlier heat and are suddenly raising, you've got not just a good hand, but a great one. They'll probably revert to check-call mode, and there's a good chance UTG+1 will fold.

I don't think your implied odds are as good as you think. It would really have to be two completely asleep players to keep reraising if you here.

Good fold.

-Scott

[elysium]

hi everyone
what no one is addressing, and what i think may be getting over-looked because it's not that easy to see at first, is that the UTG was going to definately bet-out on the turn, and definately get raised by the UTG+1 who had rockets. since there was absolutely no doubt about what these opponents were holding and how the action would continue on the turn, and furthermore that the call of the 2 cold on the flop would close the action, albeit i was definately behind UTG trips, and importantly, and what i think may be getting over-looked; my two opponents each thought that he was in lead. the UTG thought that he was ahead of the UTG+1, and visa versa. that's the important thing here, and the reason itself that the fold was wrong. both of my opponents thought that they were in the lead. also, equally important, the J hitting on the turn would not produce a scary board. not only would my hand have been concealed, but it would not have done anything to discourage the raising and reraising that had ensued on the flop. and please follow me here because what i'm about to say doesn't fit so neatly into the box we sometimes think in:

so far, everyone has looked at this from the implied odds point of view because clearly, i'm not getting correct odds on the flop to make the call. then, after calculating the possible implied odds on paper, the call of 2 cold still proves sub-optimal. toss in diplomat's excellent contribution; that perhaps it would only be one BB to me on the turn, and then maybe i would scrap my read and make the call thinking i might be in the lead, and make another bad call, and this starts to look like an easy fold. and remember, i folded. i want to be told these things. however, i am riveted onto the central issue, the only issue; that i was positioned between two opponents who believed their hand was the winner, and my spike card would not have produced a scary board and my hand would have been concealed. this is the issue.

the reason for this post was to address this specific issue alone, not implied odds because on paper, we never have the correct implied odds to spike a 2 outer when faced with 2 cold. but this thinking is wrong in this specific instance. when you are positioned between two opponents, both of whom believe that their hand is best, and both of whom who would have kept on raising the flop if it didn't have a cap, and you have an over-pair to the board pair, but are clearly against at least trips, even though there is no possibility of being in the lead, it is always correct under these circumstances to call 2 cold if spiking your over-pair doesn't produce a scary board.

both winners raising and reraising? board spike no scare? call 2 cold over-pair on fwop.

[bobgreen]

Elysium,
Well it is simple math regarding implied odds. If the turn is always capped, you can win 6 big bets plus 2 or 4 on the river. If the turn is capped 50% of the time, and 2 bets 50% of the time, you expect to win 5 big bets plus 2 on the river. Plug in the liklihood of a turn cap and compute your pot odds.

It is a good point. I've folded many times when I knew I was beat and later realized I had the price to call. This special case where you expect extreme action on the future rounds needs to be considered. How about this: you flop a gutshot, two agressive opponents (who "know" you would never chase the gutshot) go to war on the flop. You expect them to escalate on the turn. Maybe you actually do have the implied odds to chase.
Bob

[elysium]

hi bob
the problem with the gut-shot is that it puts a straight on board when it completes. also, there are more river cards that can hurt you. in the case of the over-pair with a pair on board, and bob that's the only hand were considering for the call of 2 cold (the call closing the action of course, or capping it). the cold-call doesn't seem to have merit in any other case, including those times there is an over-card to your pocket pair on the paired board. there is nothing written about this one single instance, but i think i'm right.

[bobgreen]

Remember, I postulated that my opponents know I would not chase the gutshot and they will keep raising the turn. I hold QJ; the flop is A T 4r; the turn is K. They will cap the turn. If they both have AK, they have two outs on the river. If it is AK vs AT they have five outs. If it is AK vs TTT, they have eight outs. If it is AAA vs TTT, they have eight outs.

I guess I have a backdoor flush and got strung along on the flop for two bets. (The pot was pretty big already.) Now should I cold call two more on the flop? It looks like it.

[andyfox]

You're talking about a situation where you know exactly what your opponents have. This doesn't come up all that often. And you only "know" 3 of your opponents' 4 cards.

So your implied odds are close to the correct 23.5:1. That's still long odds and I still say those who keep calling cold to draw to long odds end up with short bankrolls, even if they're getting close to the best of it or even a bit of the best of it.

And many times all that flop action ends up check-check on the turn. The trips hand gets cute and figure the other guy will certainly bet his big pair and the big pair says wait a minute he's trapping me, I don't have to worry about an overcard because I have aces and there go your implied odds out the window. Or the aces get wise and belatedly figure out that his opponent may indeed have trips. Or the flop action is just so much posturing. Not that I'm questioning your reads here, just that it's not always a cinch that you're going to have them put oodles of money into the pot when you spike.

[elysium]

hi andy
that were discussing even an exception to a pretty substantial poker axiom 'that we never call 2 cold with a 2 outer' is a thing in itself. i mean, chit....were discussing it. well chit, ....dogonnit there's even some merit to what we are discussing, in my opinion. but i totally agree that the odds are so close, and the situation is delineated so narrowly that if this situation occurs more than once a month of regular sessions, that would be a lot. it's rare and clearly very exceptional. and there isn't another situation quite like it. and as far as i can tell, we're 'it' regarding any known discourse on this situation. and look at me, i just spelled 'regarding' with a u. and what other lierary mistakes am i making? maybe we shouldn't talk about this. this could be important. ehhh, poker pundits. let em poke. i say it's worth a call. literally and illiterately. here's why:

true andy, very true, the odds in this situation are razor thin. i also agree totally that the cold-call at most, if there were no other hands in the universe other than this cold-call of 2 on the flop, would at the most result in poker pennies hardly worth their weight in green stamps. but there is more at stake here than just this one hand. one in 22 or so times, this hand leaves you crawling for a handkerchief. but it has no effect on your opponents. granted andy, 21 in 22 times or so, you are a little smug about saving a big bet. but we do that all the time. it doesn't have any real effect on our game. so not calling never helps our game, but can, one in 22 times or so, really questioning our decision making abilities. and that hurts our game. the 21 in 22 times we save a big bet has no effect on us. when we fold, rather than call, even if we save a big bet, we still are losing the hand. yeah, you save a big bet, but you're not that elated, let me tell you. now look what happens when we call andy:

when we call, 21 out of 22 times, we lose a big bet. well, we were going to lose the pot anyway, and one more big bet doesn't have any real effect on our game. follow me here. one out of 22 times, when that fantastic spike happens, we look like and feel like champions. but more importantly, we look like champions before the whole table. and those who are in the hand with us are left questioning their poker prowess; clearly something that can send some on tilt and others weak tight. this is great for our game. huge wins andy build tremendous forward momentum. what does it mean? andy, i don't knoow. all i know is that when i don't make the cold-call, i save or lose pennies. the 21 in 22 times i save a big bet is off-set by the 1 in 22 times i miss out on a big pot equaling about 22 or 23 BB. when i don't call, not a single session ever receives an assist from a huge win. 1 in 22 times i don't call, i save a big bet but it never assists my session. the field never knows about it. but 1 in 22 times, not calling just causes me to question my decision making ability, and does have a negative effect on my session.

when i call:
21 in 22 times, i lose a big bet, but this has no effect on my session. but if i call, 1 in 22 times when i spike my 2 outer, not only do i receive a tremendous assist for my session, but my opponents are left questioning their poker decisions. my entire session for the whole night receives a tremendous boost. but when i call, not a single session is effected one way or the other.

what are the implied odds here? i have no idea. all i know is that if i make a play that has no negative or positive ev but it can never hurt me and only help me, albeit 1 in 22 times, and this means additional ev for the entire session because the weight of the effect of this call only scales positively, never negatively, then dogonnit, why not call ever time in this situation? there is absolutely nothing to lose, and everthing to gain!

think about what i'm saying here, because andy, what i'm lamenting mostly about after having folded isn't the lost pot, but rather the lost boost that this would have given my session. the lost momentum may have been as large as the pot andy. if it was, i'm getting implied odds of 44 to 1 on the call. in any event, my implied implied odds are greater than 23 or 22 to 1. that win would have carried over into the following session. i may have been able to retire.