Two overcards with Flush Draw outside bubble

#1 10-17-2005, 05:35 PM

I have A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and we are currently right outside the bubble. I am in pretty good position in the tournament as i have a little over the average. I raise from the button and get called only by the UTG who had initially just called. Flop comes T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG checks to me and i bet the pot, he puts me all in betting about 3 times the pot. I have posted hands like this before and been told that if this is in a cash came nearly always with two overs and a flush draw on the flop this is where you want to get all your money in the pot. However, in a tournament this type of decision is where the primary purpose of a tournament comes in to play. Do you make the call where you most likely have a positive expected value in an effort to accumulate chips or do you make the lay down because you are going to need to catch cards to win the hand and go for survival instead of chip accumulation? If i lose the hand i still have a descent size chip stack. Which move do you think has a higher expected value?

TonyS0pran0 · #2 10-17-2005, 05:58 PM

Did you have him outchipped? If so I would be in there if I thought I had 15 live outs. Can't win a tournament folding all day. He's likely to have A10-J10 or JJ.

#3 10-17-2005, 06:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Did you have him outchipped? If so I would be in there if I thought I had 15 live outs. Can't win a tournament folding all day. He's likely to have A10-J10 or JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Couldn't agree more. If he's a strong player, he's probably trying to take advantage of bubble-tightness and playing TP. You've got a ton of outs and a chip stack that's only above average. If you want to win, you'll need to gain on the leaders.

I would push here. If I have time later, I'll try to pokerstove this against a reasonable range (unless someone wants to beat me to it?).

jubeirm · #4 10-17-2005, 07:42 PM

I'm not sure this is correct, I used my own code, but if villian has AT,KT,QT,JT, or TT+ (in other words we are behind on the flop) I find the following percentages:
<ul type="square"> Hero 47.8% to Villian 52.2%[/list]

sillyarms · #5 10-17-2005, 08:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have A K and we are currently right outside the bubble. I am in pretty good position in the tournament as i have a little over the average. I raise from the button and get called only by the UTG who had initially just called. Flop comes T 6 2 . UTG checks to me and i bet the pot, he puts me all in betting about 3 times the pot. I have posted hands like this before and been told that if this is in a cash came nearly always with two overs and a flush draw on the flop this is where you want to get all your money in the pot. However, in a tournament this type of decision is where the primary purpose of a tournament comes in to play. Do you make the call where you most likely have a positive expected value in an effort to accumulate chips or do you make the lay down because you are going to need to catch cards to win the hand and go for survival instead of chip accumulation? If i lose the hand i still have a descent size chip stack. Which move do you think has a higher expected value?

[/ QUOTE ]

As a call I like the move alot less. Had he been the one to bet pf and I were the one raising all in and had some folding equity. I would like the move alot more.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure this is correct, I used my own code, but if villian has AT,KT,QT,JT, or TT+ (in other words we are behind on the flop) I find the following percentages:

Hero 47.8% to Villian 52.2%

[/ QUOTE ]
you have to take into account the percentage of the time your opponet is bluffing too also hands like AA, QQ, JJ, 66.

runout_mick · #6 10-18-2005, 12:53 AM

In this situation you are probably ahead of, and possibly dominating, any hand he is likely to play this way. You absolutely need to take this risk to have a chance at any real placing in the tourney.

Close to the bubble is where I make nearly all of my steals with air to exploit the "bust before the bubble paranoia" that seems soooo prevalent in large mtts, and villain may be making this very move...

My chips can't hit the pot fast enough barring a VERY strong read on villain...

Exitonly · #7 10-18-2005, 01:00 AM

vs TT+,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,ATo,KTo,QTo,JTo

you're 48%, so pretty much if you were getting 1:1 (you're getting better than that) it'd be a call.

Plus 5% he's bluffing or on a worse flush draw.

Cactus Jack · #8 10-18-2005, 09:19 AM

He called the blind and the raise. The only hand I'd put him on is TT that causes me any worry. He may be betting out his set because of the flush draw. (I would.) He may have two overs or a flush draw himself and is semi-bluffing. I think you have to call here.

To win or even make the final table and cash a nice check, you have to win some gambles. I think this is one of those spots where you'd be hard pressed to find a better gamble.

Hope you doubled up.

CJ

centja1 · #9 10-18-2005, 11:46 AM

I think if you're going to semi-bluff this board on the flop, then you need to go ahead and put all of your money in the pot. I assume that you didn't want the guy to call the bet on the flop anyway, but wouldn't really mind if he did. You're not worse than 35% to win, and that's if he has something as terrible for your hand as a set. Against all other reasonable hands, you have at least 12 outs. On top of all of this, you may have the best hand right now.

If he has enough hand to call, then you have a nice coinflip with some dead money in the pot to get your hands on some chips late in the tourney. If he doesn't have enough of a hand to call, then that's cool too.

If you don't want to push the flop, then check behind and make your decision from there.

When I don't have a made hand already, but have a super-strong draw, I tend to not make bets that will allow someone to push me off of my hand. Since I don't think you can fold this if you get raised, but do actually have to think about your decision before calling all-in, simply put your money in and make the other guy guess. Use the fold equity to your advantage, don't give it to him!

#10 10-19-2005, 04:08 PM

Thanks guys for the input i thought calling was probably the best move although if i had pushed to begin with it probably would have been better. In the actual hand where this happened I ended up calling and he showed Q T but i didnt catch anything on the turn or river and got put out right before the bubble, just wanted to make sure this was the right move.